The Minnesota Twins are 9-2 in Jose Berrios’ 11 trips to the mound this season, yet they are +103 underdogs in the second of a four-game set with the Tampa Bay Rays. Ryne Stanek starts in a bullpen day for the Rays, who are coming back at -123, with tonight’s total Sportsbook at 8 runs.
Standout Stats
- Tampa Bay is 11-4 SU and 9-6 ATS over its last 15 contests and more recently is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS over its last six. The Rays sport a 17-11 record at Tropicana Field this season.
- Minnesota is 12-3 SU and ATS through its last 15 matches. The Twins have an 18-9 road record in 2019.
- The total has gone OVER in eight of the Twins’ last 14 games with an average combined score of 12.57. Conversely, the total has gone UNDER in eight of the Rays’ last 15 with an average combined score of 8.07.
- The Twins are 9-2 behind Jose Berrios this year and he is 7-2 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. He has seven quality starts as well this season.
- He is averaging the lowest BB/9 rate in his career and the lowest K/9 rate since his rookie season in 2016.
- Opponents are hitting .254 against Berrios, which is the highest batting average against in his career. He also has the highest percentage of hard-hit batted balls but has the highest percentage of soft-hit contact of his career as well. The Rays rank seventh in hard-hit percentage vs RHP over the last two weeks.
- Berrios has a 3.82 ERA and a .248 opponent batting average over his five road starts. He averages a lower K/9 rate in away games but higher BB/9 and HR/9 rates and 30.8 percent of the contact against is soft-hit.
- The Rays are 11-4 over Ryne Stanek’s 15 starts this season and he is 0-1 with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, including his eight relief appearances. He hasn’t pitched more than two innings in any outing this year.
- He is averaging 9.49 K/9, 2.97 BB/9 and 0.89 HR/9 this season.
- Opponents are hitting .200 against Stanek and 44.9 percent of the contact has been hard-hit. Minnesota leads the majors in hard-hit percentage vs RHP over the last two weeks.
- Stanek has a sparkling 0.50 ERA and a .161 opponent batting average over his 12 home outings (eight starts). He has yet to allow a home run at the Trop and has lower K/9 and BB/9 rates there as well. However, 52.3 percent of the batted balls against at home have been hard-hit.
- With this being a bullpen day for Tampa Bay, it is noteworthy that the Rays have the third-best bullpen ERA this year and that ERA drops to 3.12 in May and remains third-best in the majors.
- Tampa Bay is 23-14 against right-handed starters this year, ranking third in batting average and 18th in runs scored. Over the last two weeks, the Rays rank fifth in batting average and 12th in runs scored vs RHP.
- Minnesota is 32-12 against right-handed starters in 2019, sitting sixth in batting average and first in runs scored. The Twins rank 10th in batting average and third in runs scored vs righties over the last two weeks.
My Best Bet for Minnesota vs Tampa Bay
Minnesota moneyline
The Twins have scored the third-most runs against RHP over the last two weeks and the most in the majors all season. Stanek will be throwing two innings max before turning the ball over to the bullpen, which has thrown the fourth-most innings over the last two weeks and sports a 4.40 ERA over that span.
Lastly, Berrios ranks 11th among starting pitchers with at least 25 innings pitched in soft-hit batted ball percentage.
Minnesota is 12-3 SU and ATS over its last 15 games.away Minnesota has scored the most runs against RHP this season (251).away Tampa Bay is 11-4 SU and 9-6 ATS over its last 15 games.home
