I'm Buying The Pirates As Real Contenders

To quote Smash Mouth — I'm A Believer (in the Pittsburgh Pirates).

The Pirates are off to one of the best starts in baseball and I'm buying in. I believe in this lineup, more pitching is on the way, and this long-rebuilding team is finally starting to look up.

Below, I'll break down why the Pirates are a breakout World Series candidate for 2024 and why now's the time to buy in:

Why The Pirates Are Actually Good

Here’s the first thing we need to establish: the Pirates were better than you think they were last year. Go look at the standings, I’ll wait.

Pittsburgh won 76 games in 2023 and missed the playoffs by ‘just’ eight wins. They weren’t amazing by any means, but the 2023 Pirates weren’t the terrible rebuilding Pennsylvanian squad we’ve been used to.

So, when you add back in a healthy Oneil Cruz, a new Ke'Bryan Hayes, and a year more development for the other young players — that's where this Pittsburgh breakout comes from.

In particular, I think Hayes is going to break out in a big way this season because of what he showed last year. After working with now-fired Pirates minor-league coach Joe Nunnally mid-way through last season, Hayes was a new man in the second half, posting a .299 average and .874 OPS after the All-Star break. He's kept that progress going to start 2024, hitting .333 with an .868 OPS so far this campaign.

Ke'Bryan Hayes JUST KEEPS HITTING. Another RBI double

Hayes is now batting .438 with a 1.063 OPS

104.3 MPH exit velocity, .570 xBA pic.twitter.com/nVA3IDeDSk

— Platinum Ke’Bryan (@PlatinumKey13) March 31, 2024

I'll get into the pitching a bit below, but it's really Hayes and the offense that's carrying this hot start:

Sure, we'll have to see the Pirates do it against teams not named Miami and Washington. But there's an offensive upside in Pittsburgh, and that's something I’m willing to bet on. Sure, you may not be believing in the Pirates as World Series candidates, but let me convince you on the NL Central.

The NL Central Division Is Up For Grabs

Despite their hot start, the Pirates currently sit as far-away underdogs in NL Central odds, far behind the favored Cubs and Cardinals. But here’s the thing, I truly think Pittsburgh could take the Central crown.

On top of loving manager Derek Shelton's lineup and his team's pitching potential (more on that below), I’ve got pretty significant questions about the rest of the division. Are the Cardinals that much better than the team that won 71 games last year? Did the Cubs get any better? Can the Reds survive all the early injuries (and PED suspensions)? Are the Brewers even trying to win?

Given the state of chaos that the NL Central is in right now, I think the Pirates are the perfect underdog candidate to bank on. They may not need to win more than 88 games to take the division, and this team is capable of doing it — especially with more help on the way.

They're Only Getting Better

It may seen like buying in on the Pirates after a 5-1 start is buying high, but I think the time to invest is now — whether that be in division futures, World Series odds, or just emotional investment.

If there's a clear weakness for this Pirates squad, it's the rotation. Mitch Keller is solid an dJared Jones is a nice high-upside young guy. But, Martin Perez, Bailey Falter, and Marco Gonzales are just rotation fillers — I won't deny it. However, if the Pirates keep up these hot start, I think they'll call up the big guns to help in the rotation.

Three of Pittsburgh's top eight prospects are starting pitchers in Triple-A — Paul Skenes, Quinn Priester, and Mike Burrows. They've also got two more top-100 league-wide pitching prospects in Bubba Chandler Anthony Solometo in Double-A, too. Add even a few of those young electric arms to the big league rotation, and the Pirates become the most exciting young team in baseball.

At some point this season that's going to happen, so buy in now before it's too late.