In what has become an every-five-day occurrence for MLB bettors, Homer Bailey gets the call for the Kansas City Royals when they face the Seattle Mariners tonight and the Royals may want to look at Bailey’s recent game log. Over the 32-year-old’s last 20 starts, his teams are an unbelievable 1-19 SU and he was the least profitable pitcher in MLB in 2018. Not to be outdone, the Mariners are countering with Felix Hernandez, whose best days are clearly behind him and who had a 6.97 ERA in 13 road starts last year.
The Mariners opened as -120 favorites with a total of 9.5.
Mariners vs Royals Game Center
STANDOUT STATS
- Baseball fans may be tough on Homer Bailey but it doesn’t seem unwarranted based on his recent track record. In his nine home starts for the Reds last season, Cincy went 0-9 SU and Bailey owned a 6.66 ERA while batters hit .320 off him. In his first start this season, he was serviceable over five innings but gave up three earned runs on five hits to the Twins.
- “King” Felix Hernandez may not be the pitcher he once was when he won the AL Cy Young but he had a serviceable first outing vs the Angels when he allowed only one earned run on seven hits. Hernandez was atrocious in road games last season with a 6.97 ERA in 13 road outings while yielding a .280 batting average. When pitching in Kansas City, the 32-year-old owns a 3.20 ERA in eight career starts and has only allowed three home runs.
- After a fire sale of talent in the offseason, the Mariners offense has been one of the best in MLB. Seattle leads the majors in hits, runs, home runs and RBIs and is second in doubles and OPS. The Mariners have five players with three home runs or more and four players already with double-digit RBIs.
- The Royals offense has been abysmal for most of the season so it shouldn’t shock anyone to see they’ve lost six games in a row. The Royals rank 22nd in batting average, 21st in OPS, 24th in homers and last in doubles. They’ve only scored five runs total over their last three games.
- Both of these teams have been great for OVER bettors to start the season with the OVER hitting in eight of the Mariners’ 11 games (avg. combined score: 12.8) and in six of the Royals’ eight games (avg. combined score: 9.6).
My Best Bets for Mariners vs Royals
OVER 9.5 runs and Mariners Moneyline
I prefer the OVER if we’re discussing favorites but I have to throw in the Mariners moneyline just because of how bad Bailey’s teams have done when he’s on the mound. Dating back to last season when he was with the Reds, Bailey’s teams are an unbelievable 1-19 SU in his last 20 starts. Read that again. Now, tell me you can reasonably make a case that the Royals win this game.
OK, now that you’re done scrambling to find an argument, continue to fade Bailey and keep making money. While you’re at it, take the OVER because the Mariners offense is red-hot to start the year and Hernandez routinely got shelled in road games last year. Only two of the Mariners’ games this season have gone UNDER 10 runs and I anticipate it will be another high-scoring game in Kansas City.
