It’s the final month of regular-season baseball. The games mean more than ever, with teams vying for postseason spots and players competing for major awards like the Cy Young and MVP.
However, September is also a crucial month for baseball bettors. It’s our last chance to build up the bankroll (or save the season) ahead of the playoffs and to get some money to lose during football season. So, with that in mind, we broke down some important September MLB betting trends, including the best September hitters and pitchers and some league-wide trends to note.
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MLB September Betting Trends
| Month | Home Team SU (%) | OVER/UNDER Record |
|---|---|---|
| April | 753-711 (51.4%) | 673-736-55 (47.8%) |
| May | 880-787 (52.8%) | 797-788-82 (50.3%) |
| June | 873-733 (54.4%) | 769-753-84 (50.5%) |
| July | 852-751 (53.2%) | 749-789-62 (49.7%) |
| August | 1061-902 (54.0%) | 893-957-113 (48.3%) |
| September | 854-734 (53.8%) | 741-763-84 (49.3%) |
Data courtesy of Odds Shark’s database
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While September isn’t the best month for betting on home teams or any OVER/UNDER trend, what the last five years of monthly data can tell us is that it’s not a bad time to be betting on the home squads or OVERs.
However, if we want to get a little more granular with our September betting trends, we can look at a few players. The below pitchers and hitters are some of the best in September during their careers, and you can utilize these strong finishers for MLB prop bets or take advantage of specific matchups down the stretch.
Best Pitchers In September
Justin Verlander (Astros)
Justin Verlander is almost always good, but he takes his game to another level in the final month.
The veteran has a career ERA in the mid- to low threes for every other month, but in September his career mark sits at 2.84. In 80 career September/October regular-season starts, Verlander is 46-18 with the highest strikeout rate, best strikeout-to-walk rate, and best ERA of any month. Verlander is the AL Cy Young favorite right now, but the best is probably yet to come from him this year.
It may also be important to note Verlander’s strong late-season play when it comes to your playoff wagers, as the Astros look to return to the World Series.
Michael Pineda (Tigers)
While not the same top-tier name as Verlander, Michael Pineda also takes his game to another level in September. In 32 starts during the final month of seasons, Pineda has a 3.14 ERA. His lowest ERA in any other month is 3.70, from April/March. Pineda is 17 percent better than his career numbers in September and allows a .236 opponent batting average while striking out nine batters per nine.
If you want to use these September betting trends, head over to Sportsbook. Also, be sure to check out our How to Bet on MLB betting guide and keep an eye on our MLB odds page for the latest up-to-date MLB betting lines.
Best Hitters In September
Eugenio Suarez (Mariners)
Many of the names at the top of the OPS leaderboard for September over the last five years aren’t too surprising. Mike Trout and Juan Soto lead the pack, but the fourth-best hitter in September since 2018 may be a bit of a surprise: Seattle’s Eugenio Suarez.
Suarez has a 1.002 OPS in September over the last five years, compared to his career .797 OPS. Last year, Suarez was dominant in that final month, hitting .370 with a .460 OBP and 10 homers in 24 games.
Bobby Dalbec (Red Sox)
Another player who regularly outperforms his career numbers in the final month of the season is Boston’s Bobby Dalbec.
In both 2020 and 2021, Dalbec posted his highest homer totals of any month in September/October (swatting seven both times). He’s posted two of the three best Septembers over the last five years among current Red Sox.
The 27-year-old first baseman has had a rough season in 2022, hitting just .206 with 11 homers. But, maybe it’s worth hammering the OVER on his September props given his recent history of finishing strong.
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Where To Bet On September Baseball
The easiest way to utilize these September MLB betting trends is at one of our top sportsbooks like Sportsbook.
Check out our odds calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered, as well as the implied probability of all odds.
