The Houston Astros have won each of Wade Miley’s last three starts and they are a -160 favorite tonight in the series opener against the Texas Rangers, their in-state rivals who are coming back at +140. Mike Minor gets the ball for the Rangers with the total going UNDER in three of his last four starts. Tonight’s total has opened at 9 runs.
Standout Stats
- Texas is 5-9 SU but 8-6 ATS in its last 14 games. The Rangers are just 5-10 away from home this season.
- Houston is 9-6 SU and 8-7 ATS over its last 15 contests. At Minute Maid Park, the Astros have a record of 12-4.
- The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Rangers’ last 16 contests with an average combined score of 12.25. Meanwhile, the total has gone OVER in 11 of the Astros’ last 18 matches with an average combined score of 10.39.
- The Rangers are 3-4 in Mike Minor’s seven trips to the mound this season and he is 3-2 with a 2.40 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. Minor also has five quality starts thus far.
- He is averaging 2.59 BB/9, which is his highest rate since the 2014 season, but has his lowest HR/FB percentage as a starter since the 2013 campaign.
- Minor has the highest groundball percentage in his career, which could be the reason for his success, and he is throwing his changeup 25.1 percent of the time, which is also a career high. Houston has the lowest groundball percentage against LHP in the majors.
- Houston is 5-2 in Wade Miley’s seven appearances this season, including winning his last three, and he is 2-2 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Additionally, he has four quality starts.
- Miley has the lowest K/9 rate of his career at 5.26 and the second-lowest opponent batting average at .239. However, he has the lowest percentage of soft-hit batted balls since 2014 and is tied for the highest percentage of hard-hit batted balls in his career. Texas ranks fourth in MLB in hard-hit batted ball percentage vs LHP.
- He has essentially abandoned his four-seam fastball, throwing it just 13 percent of the time, but is tossing his cutter 52.5 percent of the time.
- Texas is 4-5 against left-handed starters this season and ranks 25th in batting average and 13th in runs scored vs southpaws. Meanwhile, Houston is 6-3 against left-handed starters, ranking third in the majors in batting average, but has scored the sixth-fewest runs vs LHP.
My Best Bet for Texas vs Houston
UNDER 9
Although the Astros have hit lefties well this season, they have scored the sixth-fewest runs against them and Minor has surrendered two or fewer runs in five of his seven outings this year. Meanwhile, four of Wade Miley’s seven appearances in 2019 have been quality starts, limiting opponents to an average of just .239, and Texas ranks 25th in MLB with a .220 batting average vs southpaws.
Houston is 12-4 at home this season. home The total has gone OVER in 12 of Texas’ last 16 games.away Houston has scored the sixth-fewest runs vs LHP this season (30).away
