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2019-20 NBA Regular-Season Updated Win Totals: Locks and Shocks So Far

NBA Regular Season Win Totals 2019 Season Devin Booker

As we settle into a Thanksgiving holiday weekend and approach the quarter mark of the 2019-20 NBA regular season, oddsmakers have updated every team’s projected win totals. Sportsbooks were spot on with some teams that are playing up to their potential (Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles Clippers) while some teams are completely in the tank (Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs).

The Warriors’ O/U win total in the preseason was 48.5 while the Spurs’ total opened at 45.5 and both teams will have a tough time cracking 25 wins this year due to overwhelming injuries and poor defensive play.

The teams that are punching above their weight and on pace to shatter their projected win totals are the Phoenix Suns and the Dallas Mavericks. The Suns’ mark opened at 29.5 and their new updated total is at 40.5 while the Mavericks opened at 40.5 and that has since moved to 48.5 due to the spectacular play of NBA MVP candidate Luka Doncic.

Since I made a win totals prediction for every team coming into the season, this is a perfect time to give myself a pat on the back followed by a kick in the behind. Let’s take a look at some of the teams where I had my finger on the pulse and some of the teams that I got dead wrong.

What I Got Right

Chicago Bulls UNDER 33.5 Wins (EVEN)

Out of all the picks I made, this one makes me feel the most vindicated because there was far too much hype for this young Bulls roster coming into the season. The updated win total for the Bulls has dropped down to 27.5 and they’re 6-13 SU through 19 games, which puts them on pace for a 25- to 27-win season.

Despite having black-hole scorers like Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen, the Bulls are only averaging 106.2 points per game, which ranks 26th in the NBA. This team might have a good talent base but coaching is a huge issue for this squad and the youth is obvious when games get to crunch time as Chicago is last in field-goal percentage in the fourth quarter (40.7 percent).

Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 46.5 (-115)

Sitting at 7-12 SU through 19 games, it will be an uphill battle for the Blazers to finish with a winning record in the Western Conference. Portland’s defense has been atrocious and you can tell the Blazers miss center Jusuf Nurkic as they rank 25th in points allowed per game, 24th in opponent field goals per game and 29th in opponent rebounds per game.

Hassan Whiteside was supposed to bridge that gap while Nurkic recovers from a broken leg but he’s last on the team in plus/minus. This team isn’t built to outscore opponents and at this rate, they’ll be lucky to finish with more than 40 wins, which is why their updated total is down to 37.5.

Dallas Mavericks OVER 40.5 Wins (-125)

I figured the Mavericks would be in contention to make the playoffs and Luka Doncic would have some natural progression as a 20-year-old player but I’d be lying if I said I’d thought he would be this good early in his career. Luka is now second in the MVP race behind Giannis Antetokounmpo and leads his team in nearly every offensive category.

The Mavs’ updated win total has shot up to 48.5 and they currently rank fourth in points per game and have a +7.7 point differential, which is also fourth in the NBA. The Mavs will go as far as Luka can take them and at this rate, the sky is the limit for the second-year wunderkind.

Where I Blew It

Phoenix Suns UNDER 29.5 Wins (-110)

While I didn’t make a bold vow to move to Bulgaria if the Suns finished with a winning record like my colleague Joe Osborne did, I was way off on them finishing with less than 30 wins. The Suns are sitting at 8-9 SU through 17 games and if the playoffs started today, they would be the eighth seed.

What’s even more crazy about the Suns’ success is they’re doing all of this without former No. 1 overall pick Deandre Ayton. Ayton was suspended after the first game of the season for PEDs and with that news, this UNDER felt like a lock but Devin Booker and Aron Baynes had different plans.

Booker’s scoring has led the Suns to be the fifth-highest scoring team in the NBA while Baynes is filling in admirably for Ayton while shooting an incredible 44 percent from behind the arc.

A lot can still happen with over 75 percent of the season left to play but the Suns could be in line for their first winning season since Steve Nash was traded in 2012.

San Antonio Spurs OVER 45.5 Wins (-110)

Although I was horribly wrong about the Spurs, the reality is there was no way I was betting against the infrastructure that has produced a playoff team every year since 1999. The offense is still there and the duo of DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge are combining to score 41 points per game but their defense is a dumpster fire.

Teams routinely outscore the Spurs when those two are on the floor and San Antonio ranks 29th in opponent three-point percentage and 24th in points allowed per game (115.2).

At 6-13 SU through 19 games and with an updated win total set at 25.5, I have to accept the fact that this will be the first time the Spurs will be in the draft lottery since they drafted Tim Duncan.

Golden State Warriors OVER 48.5 Wins (-110)

I could easily point to injuries as the reason why this pick fell short but even if Stephen Curry and Draymond Green were still playing regularly, the defense just wouldn’t be good enough to finish with 49 or more wins.

Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala are considered among the best perimeter defensive players in the game and without those three, the Warriors’ defense is, for lack of a better word, ugly.

The Warriors have the worst record in the NBA at 4-15 SU through 19 games and easily have the biggest shift for win totals with the preseason line set at 48.5 and now down to 28.5.

Even at that revised number, I’d still take the UNDER 28.5 because Golden State will likely use this season as a rest year to get Curry and Green healthy while adding a key prospect in the upcoming NBA draft to make another championship run.

Here is the full list of updated NBA regular-season win totals for all 30 teams:

2019-20 NBA Regular-season Win Totals
Atlanta Hawks34.528.5-115-115
Boston Celtics48.552.5-115-115
Brooklyn Nets43.538.5-115-115
Charlotte Hornets23.524.5-115-115
Chicago Bulls33.528.5-115-115
Cleveland Cavaliers24.525.5-115-115
Dallas Mavericks40.548.5-115-115
Denver Nuggets52.553.5-115-115
Detroit Pistons37.531.5-115-115
Golden State Warriors48.528.5-115-115
Houston Rockets53.556.5-115-115
Indiana Pacers46.545.5-115-115
Los Angeles Clippers53.557.5-115-115
Los Angeles Lakers50.550.5N/AN/A
Memphis Grizzlies26.528.5-115-115
Miami Heat43.546.5-115-115
Milwaukee Bucks57.560.5-115-115
Minnesota Timberwolves35.541.5-115-115
New Orleans Pelicans39.540.5-115-115
New York Knicks26.517.5-115-115
Oklahoma City Thunder32.539.5-115-115
Orlando Magic41.540.5-115-115
Philadelphia 76ers54.555.5-115-115
Phoenix Suns29.540.5-115-115
Portland Trail Blazers46.537.5-115-115
Sacramento Kings37.534.5-115-115
San Antonio Spurs45.525.5-115-115
Toronto Raptors46.546.5N/AN/A
Utah Jazz53.552.5-115-115
Washington Wizards26.531.5-115-115

All odds courtesy of  Bovada as of November 29

How to Understand NBA OVER / UNDER Odds

When you check out a basketball betting site, you’ll see odds for team win totals displayed like this:

Boston Celtics 49

48.5 OVER -120

48.5 UNDER +100

The number beside the team name is their wins from the previous season. In this case it’s 49. If you think Boston is going to win more than 49 games, you would take the over at -120. A $100 bet would give you a payout of $183.33 – you get your $100 back along with your winnings of $83.33. Conversely, if you think they’re going to win less than 48 games, you’d take the UNDER at +100. That same $100 would give $200 – your original money returns, coupled with your prize of $100.

To see what you’d get on a winning bet based on the odds and amount wagered, our Odds Calculator will show you.

What is a Prop Bet on O / U Odds?

Although this may look like a totals bet because of the OVER / UNDER aspect, this is actually a prop bet because you’re technically wagering on the occurrence or nonoccurrence of specific player or team milestones. In this case the marker is total number of wins being more or less than the oddsmaker’s set number.

The get the best value on your bets, take odds you like as soon as you see them. When oddsmakers’ set the lines, they could change as the season progresses and more games are played. A team with projected totals of 20 could go on tear and win 30 games in the blink of an eye. Getting a team at +800 is better than getting them at +100 should you win your bet.