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2018-19 NBA Regular-Season Win Totals

NBA OVER UNDER Win Totals September 27

With the 2018-19 NBA season creeping closer for hoops bettors, oddsmakers have updated their projected win totals for all 30 NBA teams with the Golden State Warriors (obviously) leading the pack.

The defending NBA champions top the list at Bovada with a line set at 63.5 followed by the Boston Celtics at 58.5, the Houston Rockets and Toronto Raptors at 55.5, and the Philadelphia 76ers at 53.5 to round out the top five.

Let’s take a look at three candidates that I think will either surpass or fall below expectations:

Warriors May Be Motivated to Go for 70

Although the regular season may seem insignificant for Golden State, I still feel the team has something left to prove and hasn’t reached its full potential since Kevin Durant arrived. The Warriors had a lackadaisical attitude toward the regular season last year and still backed into 58 wins. One of the reasons the Warriors fell short of their 67.5 projected win total for 2017-18 was the absence of Stephen Curry as he missed 31 games. With Curry not on the floor, the Warriors offensive system can’t function at peak form as spacing is crucial for them to be successful.

It has to sting for Golden State to have the all-time regular-season wins record (73 in 2015-16) and not have won the championship that year. The Dubs also know they were vulnerable vs Houston in the Western Conference final last season and not having home-court advantage could’ve sunk them (weep for Chris Paul’s hamstring). While I expect them to come out like gangbusters and become the first team to three-peat since the Lakers from 2000 to 2002, the reality is that this prop all hinges on the health of Durant and Curry, who combined to miss 45 games last season. If they both play more than 75 games, 70 wins seems like a lock.

Pick – OVER 63.5 - Odds at +125

Lakers Should be a Lock to Hit 50 Wins

Call it the LeBron effect if you want but King James’ presence all but guarantees a team to win 50 games or more. LeBron played all 82 games last year for the first time in his career and although it looked like he didn’t give a crap in the dog days of the season, that eyesore of a Cavaliers roster still was good enough to get to the 50-win plateau and eventually the NBA Finals.

In James’ 15-year career, his teams have won 50 or more games in 11 of them (2010 was a shortened season from the lockout). The Lakers won 35 games last season and by adding LeBron to the equation, that should easily push them to the 55-win range as his playmaking ability should help the young guns like Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball and Kyle Kuzma all reach their potential. When you factor in that they get to play 12 games against chumpy divisional teams like the Clippers, Suns and Kings, this 48.5 O/U line seems laughable.

Pick - OVER 48.5 - Odds at -105

Bettors Need to Hammer the Knicks’ UNDER

I don’t want to pile on the hapless New York Knicks but this is clearly a team with its sights set on the 2019-20 season. The Knickerbockers are already in a hole with Kristaps “Unicorn” Porzingis on the shelf from a torn ACL until at least February. While they added some talented rookies in Kevin Knox and Mitchell Robinson, the key word in that sentence is rookies. First-year players have a low probability of moving the win-loss needle so bettors shouldn’t take their presence as a reason to take OVER 30 wins.

The roster as it’s currently constructed is close to being the worst in the Eastern Conference, which is pretty bad considering how poor the East is after LeBron’s departure. With each team in the Atlantic Division getting better, it’s shaping up to be another poop-fest in the Big Apple.

Pick – UNDER 29.5 - Odds at -180

2018-19 NBA Regular-season Win Totals
Team2017-18 Wins2018-19 Win TotalOVERUNDER
Atlanta Hawks2423.5-120-110
Boston Celtics5558.5-165+135
Brooklyn Nets2832-105-125
Charlotte Hornets3635.5-125-105
Chicago Bulls2729.5-150+120
Cleveland Cavaliers5030.5-135+105
Dallas Mavericks2434.5-135+105
Denver Nuggets4647.5-125-105
Detroit Pistons3938-160+130
Golden State Warriors5863.5+125-155
Houston Rockets6555.5-175+145
Indiana Pacers4847.5-130EVEN
Los Angeles Clippers4236.5-135+105
Los Angeles Lakers3548.5-105-125
Memphis Grizzlies2233.5-145+115
Miami Heat44N/AN/AN/A
Milwaukee Bucks4448-105-125
Minnesota Timberwolves47N/AN/AN/A
New Orleans Pelicans4845.5-115-115
New York Knicks2929.5+150-180
Oklahoma City Thunder4848.5-125-105
Orlando Magic2531-105-125
Philadelphia 76ers5253.5+110-140
Phoenix Suns2129.5+125-155
Portland Trail Blazers4942-135+105
Sacramento Kings2726-120-110
San Antonio Spurs4744.5-155+125
Toronto Raptors5955.5-125-105
Utah Jazz4849.5-135+105
Washington Wizards4344.5-160+130

All odds courtesy of Bovada as of October 15