College basketball conference tournaments are underway, and the drama has already begun. Tonight we're looking for the value on NCAAB bets for Thursday, March 14th. Let's build those college basketball bankrolls as we get closer to March Madness.
Here are my three college basketball expert picks of the day:
Jump To Picks
Pick 1: Iowa State -7.5 vs Kansas State
Matchup: Iowa State vs Kansas State
Yes, Kansas State defeated Texas as an underdog yesterday. However, the Iowa State Cyclones are a different beast.
Since January 1st, Iowa State has the #1 defense in the country per Torvik. Somewhat substantially. pic.twitter.com/fNWvuIifbM
— Kirk Haaland (@khaal53) March 7, 2024
The Cyclones come into this one after a crucial bye to begin the Big 12 tournament. Over the last five seasons, conference tournament favorites of 6.5 or more coming off of a bye cover the spread at a nearly 60% clip. T.J. Otzelberger's team owns the second most efficient defense in the country, allowing just 88 points per 100 possessions.
Kansas State ball security issues will be their downfall against the Cyclones stifling defense. The Wildcats turn the ball over almost 15 times per contest. That's a recipe for disaster against an Iowa State squad that scores 19 points per 100 possessions off of breakaway steals. I love the Cyclones to win big and advance.
Pick 2: North Texas -7.5 vs Tulane
Matchup: North Texas vs Tulane
Our computer picks love the Mean Green to cover the spread once again.
North Texas moves the ball at a methodical pace, at stark contrast to Tulane's propensity to push the basketball. However, that didn't stop North Texas from pulling out the home and away sweep over the Green Wave.
The Mean Green shoot almost 39% from three, and have a huge advantage on the offensive boards, bringing in nearly 10 per contest. Tulane sits 354th in field goal attempt and turns the ball over nearly 12 times per game. I'm riding the Mean Green into the sunset here. We've bet on North Texas three times so far this season and they have yet to fail us. Take North Texas -7.5 versus Tulane.
Pick 3: New Mexico +1.5 vs Boise State
Matchup: New Mexico vs Boise State
New Mexico have been one of the most profitable teams in the nation, going 20-11 ATS this season. The Lobos love to play at pace to disrupt opponents, flying up and down the court with speed.
Crucially for an underdog, New Mexico is a legitimate force on the offensive glass, and sit third in the country in second-chance conversion percentage. The Lobos pull down 10.6 offensive rebounds per game, while creating nearly nine turnovers a contest. Both marks which place them in the top 20 in Division I.
Each of the two early season matchups between these squads went down to the wire. I like the Lobos to keep things close and finally get the job done against the Broncos tonight. Odds Shark's computer picks like the New Mexico to both win and cover the spread as underdogs in this Mountain West tournament matchup.
