NFL Draft Odds 2024

2024 NFL Draft Odds: Will Bears Take Williams at 1?

Another season of NFL football is in the books, which means it's time to look to 2024 NFL Draft odds.

We'll be updating our 2024 mock draft ahead of the selection show, but on this page I'll break down the different specific odds and markets available for the NFL Draft. I'll compile all the draft props and handicap some of my best picks:

2024 NFL Draft Odds: First Overall Pick

Best Odds for the 2024 NFL Draft 2nd Overall Pick
PlayerOdds
QB Caleb Williams-1200
QB Jayden Daniels+750
QB Drake Maye+900
WR Marvin Harrison Jr.+1500
QB JJ McCarthy+3000
QB Bo Nix+10000

Odds as of March 7th, 2024

Williams Clear Favorite to go first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft

The NFL draft odds are pretty clear, USC QB Caleb Williams is basically a lock to go first overall on April 25th. The 2023 Heisman winner looked an awful lot like Patrick Mahomes in his college career, racking up 93 passing touchdowns, over 10,000 yards, and just 14 interceptions across three years.

Williams did have a 'down' year in 2024, where he saw the interception rate tick up and failed to lead USC to the College Football Playoff once again. But those minor flaws, if you even want to call them that, will not prevent Williams from being the first name called on draft day. He's a potential franchise quarterback who can carry a team to the Super Bowl in a few years — there's no doubt in my mind.

Could Bears Trade Down From No. 1?

It's less of a question about who the first pick will be this year and more of which team will make that Williams selection at one. The Chicago Bears, who own the top selection this year, already have a capable QB in Justin Fields and have a bevy of needs to address in the draft. Could they trade down a spot or two and pick up Marvin Harrison Jr. at receiver, leaving Arizona or Washington to take Williams at 1.1?

There's already been some speculation the Commanders, currently picking at No. 2, are trying to trade up after Washington hired Kliff Kingsbury to be the team's offensive coordinator. Kingsbury worked closely with Williams as a USC offensive analyst this past season. But, I think the safe bet here is the Bears stay at 1 and take Williams.

2024 NFL Draft Odds: Second Overall Pick

Best Odds for the 2024 NFL Draft 2nd Overall Pick
PlayerOdds
QB Drake Maye-120
QB Jayden Daniels+110
WR Marvin Harrison Jr.+1000
QB Caleb Williams+1000
QB JJ McCarthy+1800

Jayden Daniels was a huge riser this season after posting a massive year for LSU. But, Drake Maye's size and high floor should keep up as the No. 2 pick by the time April rolls around.

Even though he took a clear step back with UNC this past season, Maye has long been touted as the No. 2 to Caleb Williams in 2024. With size, consistency, and dependability on his side, Maye looks a lot like Jared Goff coming into the 2024 Draft. It's not a flashy selection, but for a team like the Commanders, Maye would be hard to pass up at pick two.

2024 NFL Draft Odds: 3rd Overall Pick

Best Odds To Go 3rd Overall in the 2024 NFL Draft
PlayerOdds
QB Jayden Daniels+145
QB Drake Maye+165
WR Marvin Harrison Jr.+240
QB JJ McCarthy+650
OT Joe Alt+4000

This market is pretty directly linked with Marvin Harrison Jr.'s odds, so check out why I think MHJ is the safest bet to go 1.3 below:

2024 NFL Draft Odds: Marvin Harrison Jr. Odds

Best Odds To Draft Marvin Harrison Jr.
PlayerOdds
Arizona Cardinals-225
Chicago Bears+350
New England Patriots+400
Los Angeles Chargers+1100
Washington Commanders+1400

This is where the draft gets interesting. After the top quarterbacks fall off the board, Marvin Harrison Jr. has long been expected to be the top player selected after racking up massive seasons for Ohio State, but emergent LSU QB Jayden Daniels is also making a case. I see the Patriots signing a veteran QB (Russell Wilson?) and then going MHJ at this spot.

However, I have seen some concerns about MHJ start to emerge in recent weeks. Can he separate well? Can he make defenders miss in the open field? If these small fears continue to pop up in the next few weeks, Harrison could fall out of the third spot in the draft.

For now, MHJ -> the Patriots at +400 is still the best value bet in his markets.

2024 NFL Draft Odds: Brock Bowers Odds

Best Odds To Draft Brock Bowers
PlayerOdds
Los Angeles Chargers+330
Indianapolis Colts+450
Cincinnati Bengals+650
Chicago Bears+850
New York Jets+1000

It makes sense that new Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh would want to give Justin Herbert an offensive weapon like Bowers, but we almost never see tight ends taken inside the top-10.

The highest-drafted TE ever was Kyle Pitts back in 2021, and he's been criminally underused and kind of a bust for the Falcons, so far. Given how much LA struggled to defend and run the ball last year, I'd be surprised if they burned a top pick on a tight end. I'd expect Harbaugh to trade down or draft an offensive lineman at No. 5, leaving Bowers to fall a few more spots in the draft.

If the Georgia product gets anywhere near No. 10, the Jets will certainly snap him up. New York hasn't had a good receiving tight end in forever, and Bowers would change that immediately.

2024 NFL Draft Odds: J.J. McCarthy Odds

Best Odds To Draft J.J. McCarthy
PlayerOdds
Denver Broncos+350
Minnesota Vikings+380
New York Giants+500
Las Vegas Raiders+650
Atlanta Falcons+700

There was a point this season when J.J. McCarthy was favored to win the Heisman and looked like a potential top-10 pick in the draft. He fell off a bit since that point (still won a National Championship, though), but the odds still slate him as a potential mid-first-round selection. As these odds suggest, I don't think he'll make it past the string of Minnesota, Denver, Vegas, and New Orleans in the middle of the first round. It's really hard to handicap which team will be the one that takes him though, so I'd stay away from betting this market.

2024 NFL Draft Odds: Michael Penix Jr.

Best Odds To Draft Michael Penix
PlayerOdds
Seattle Seahawks+330
Atlanta Falcons+380
Minnesota Vikings+425
Las Vegas Raiders+550
Denver Broncos+700

I'm really high on Penix and am pretty confident he'll be a top-15 pick in this year's draft. I'm not sure the Falcons pull the trigger at No. 8, but the former Washington QB is the perfect fit for the Vikings at 11 if he gets there.

Even if the Vikings bring back Kirk Cousins in free agency this year, Penix has the potential to be the QB steal of this draft. Take him this year, stash him for a season or two, and then unleash the athletic passer on the league after some development.

2024 NFL Draft Odds: First Defensive Player Taken

odds To Be First Defensive Player Taken in 2024 NFL Draft
PlayerOdds
Dallas Turner-130
Quinyon Mitchell+380
Jared Verse+475
Terrion Arnold+650
Laiatu Latu+800
Byron Murphy II+1800

For most of the last college season, Laiatu Latu was discussed and mocked as the top player in this defensive class. But, in the last few weeks, the UCLA pass-rusher has fallen down the boards and is now seen as a mid-first round pick by some.

While some teams may be concerned by his early-college neck injury, I think Latu is still a great fit for teams drafting 10-15 in the upcoming Draft. If he goes that early, he'll almost certainly be the first defensive player in this class.

Previous NFL First Overall NFL Draft Picks

Since 2001, 17 of the 23 players drafted first were quarterbacks. WR Keyshawn Johnson (1996) was the last player drafted No. 1 overall who wasn't either a QB or a lineman.
 
In the past 10 drafts, there were six QBs, three DL, and one OL selected first.

List of previous first overall NFL Draft Picks
YearPositionPlayersSchoolNFL Team
2023QBBryce YoungAlabamaCarolina Panthers
2022DETravon WalkerGeorgiaJacksonville Jaguars
2021QBTrevor LawrenceClemsonJacksonville Jaguars
2020QBJoe BurrowLSUCincinnati Bengals
2019QBKyler MurrayOklahomaArizona Cardinals
2018QBBaker MayfieldOklahomaCleveland Browns
2017DEMyles GarrettTexas A&MCleveland Browns
2016QBJared GoffCalLos Angeles Rams
2015QBJameis WinstonFlorida StateTampa Bay Buccaneers
2014DEJadeveon ClowneySouth CarolinaHouston Texans

2023 NFL Draft FAQs

Where can I learn more about how to bet on the NFL draft?

If you love the NFL draft but are new to betting or love betting but haven’t put any money down on the draft before, our guide helps you understand how to bet on the NFL draft. It explains the types of bets you can make, so that you can tackle the NFL draft like Aaron Donald takes down quarterbacks.

Who is favored to be selected first overall in the NFL draft?

Alabama Crimson Tide QB Bryce Young is the current betting favorite to be selected first overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Ohio State QB CJ Stroud and Georgia defensive lineman Jalen Carter are the next two most likely candidates to be selected first overall in the NFL draft.

What other NFL draft prop bets can I make?

NFL draft prop betting involves wagers on just about anything to do with the NFL draft and ranges from who will be the first running back drafted, to whether the No. 1 overall pick hugs his mom or dad first, to how many players from the Big 12 will be drafted in the first round.

Who has the No. 1 pick?

The Carolina Panthers hold the No. 1 pick after trading up with the Chicago Bears.

When is the NFL Draft?

The First Round starts Thursday, April 27 at 8 p.m. ET and the draft concludes April 29.
 

Where is the 2023 NFL Draft held?

Get ready to see lots of red, as the draft is in Chiefs' back yard at Union Station in Kansas City Missouri.

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