2021 NFL Free Agency Predictions: Odds For a Loaded FA Class

The Vince Lombardi Trophy is back in Florida, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won their second Super Bowl in franchise history in a 31-9 dismantling of the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 55.

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While the action on the gridiron is on hiatus until September, the NFL is a year-round league. That means a fresh new batch of betting props getting released for the 2021 offseason, which officially opens when the new league year begins on March 17. 

Online shop Bovada has updated its prop specials for free agency. With a huge number of big-name players available on the open market, this could end up being the craziest free-agent period in recent memory.

On March 1, J.J. Watt became the first domino to fall when the star defensive end signed with the Arizona Cardinals. Prior to Watt’s decision, the Cardinals weren’t even on the board in betting markets on which team he’d sign with, as the Green Bay Packers (+185) were the perceived front-runners. 

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Here’s a breakdown of the soon-to-be free agents in our 2021 edition of NFL free agency predictions. This piece will be updated throughout the offseason as new signings happen and odds shift.

2021 NFL Free Agency Predictions

Which Team Will Allen Robinson Sign With?

Allen Robinson’s time with the Chicago Bears looks like it could be coming to an end. Robinson, who signed a three-year, $42-million contract with the Bears in 2018, excelled as the team’s undisputed No. 1 wide receiver despite consistently poor quarterback play.

It’s clear the Bears want to keep Robinson around, but whether the 27-year-old wants to remain in the Windy City is up for debate. If Robinson opts to look elsewhere, the Indianapolis Colts could be a perfect match.

The Colts are looking to bolster their receiving corps after acquiring Carson Wentz from the Eagles, and Indianapolis is flush with $43 million in salary-cap space. With T.Y. Hilton likely on his way out of town, Robinson would make for an excellent replacement as the franchise’s new No. 1 WR.

The pick: Indianapolis Colts +1000

Odds as of March 2 at Bovada

Which Team Will Antonio Brown Sign With?

Antonio Brown is one of the Buccaneers’ two remaining free-agent wide receivers entering the offseason. Brown has expressed an interest in returning to the team for a full season in 2021, as the four-time All-Pro wideout was one of the many productive aspects of Tampa Bay’s lights-out passing offense during the Bucs’ Super Bowl run.

Turning 33 this offseason, Brown is clearly in the twilight of his NFL career. No other team was willing to take a risk on the oft-troubled receiver prior to last year, and it would be a major shock to see him on any other roster besides the Bucs in 2021.

The pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -500

Odds as of March 2 at Bovada

Which Team Will Hunter Henry Sign With?

Hunter Henry played the 2020 season under the franchise tag with the Los Angeles Chargers, but the tight end looks like he’s ready to experience free agency for the first time. 

Henry is the top available tight end on the market and is squarely in his prime at 27, but he hasn’t made an impact like George Kittle and Travis Kelce, the top two TEs in the NFL. 

Where Henry ends up depends on whether the Chargers want to commit to him long term. L.A. has a little over $23 million in cap space without Henry, which is more than enough to take him on.

If the Chargers decide to let Henry walk, the New England Patriots would make a lot of sense. The Pats have a glaring hole at the TE position and Bill Belichick has marveled about him in the past. As far as NFL free agency predictions go, this one looks like excellent plus-money value.

The pick: New England Patriots +300

Odds as of March 2 at Bovada

Which Team Will JuJu Smith-Schuster Sign With?

JuJu Smith-Schuster has expressed his love for the city of Pittsburgh on multiple occasions, but the wide receiver’s inconsistent production over the past few seasons might mean the Steelers opt to not re-sign him in free agency.

While the Las Vegas Raiders are the favorite to sign him, it’s worth taking a look at the New York Jets at +250. Smith-Schuster is close with Jets QB Sam Darnold, as the two helped lead USC to a Rose Bowl win before beginning their NFL careers. 

The addition of head coach Robert Saleh makes the Jets an appealing option for players given the coach’s excellent track record in San Francisco. Playing in the nation’s largest market could be an attractive option for Smith-Schuster if the J-E-T-S come calling. 

The pick: New York Jets +250

Odds as of March 2 at Bovada

Which Team Will Kenny Golladay Sign With?

The rumors surrounding Kenny Golladay are pointing toward the Detroit Lions placing the franchise tag on him right now, essentially preventing him from hitting the open market.

There is still a chance Golladay could be dealt even after getting franchised, however, as the Lions could want to gain assets to help in their rebuild. 

The Baltimore Ravens should be extremely interested if that’s the case. The Ravens have a prolific offense thanks to Lamar Jackson’s rushing ability, but they averaged a league-low 171.2 passing yards per game in 2020. 

Acquiring Golladay, who has two 1,000-yard receiving seasons under his belt, would provide an instant go-to option for Jackson and a great complement to tight end Mark Andrews and fellow WR Marquise Brown.

The pick: Baltimore Ravens +500

Odds as of March 2 at Bovada

Which Team Will Richard Sherman Sign With?

Richard Sherman is not likely to return to the San Francisco 49ers when free agency opens, so the veteran cornerback will likely be looking for a new team in 2021. 

Sherman, who turns 33 on March 30, is coming off a season in which he missed 11 games due to a calf condition. He could be among a group of veteran players who feels the impact of the league’s lowering salary cap.

Sherman has not ruled out a transition to free safety, which could help him to perform better at this point in his career. A return to Seattle makes a lot of sense, as the Seahawks will surely be looking to shore up a defense that ranked among the worst in the NFL in 2020.

The pick: Seattle Seahawks +125

Odds as of March 2 at Bovada

Which Team Will T.Y. Hilton Sign With?

T.Y. Hilton’s time with the Indianapolis Colts looks like it could be coming to an end. The wide receiver tweeted a GIF of himself dancing on March 1, stating: “No matter where I go. No matter who I pick. The Ghost Is Ready To Work!! #FreeAgency”.

Colts head coach Frank Reich recently told the media he hopes Hilton will be back, but he recognizes it might not be possible due to financial reasons. Hilton will be looking to join a contender in his age-32 season, and the San Francisco 49ers seem to be a perfect fit. 

Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are a potentially outstanding young duo, yet injuries and inexperience have been an issue for the pair of young WRs. Hilton would bring reliability and a veteran presence to the wide receiver room in the Bay Area. If you’re looking for long-shot value in NFL free agency predictions, this is the bet to make.

The pick: San Francisco 49ers +750

Odds as of March 2 at Bovada

Which Team Will Will Fuller Sign With?

The Houston Texans have no intentions of placing the franchise tag on Will Fuller, preferring to let the receiver test the free-agent market. 

Fuller was healthy through the first 11 games of the 2020 season – a rarity for the injury-prone wide receiver – but he was suspended five games for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing drug policy. The final game of his suspension will be served in Week 1 of the 2021 campaign.

The Green Bay Packers were rumored to be pursuing Fuller at the 2020 trade deadline before deciding not to pull the trigger on a deal, but don’t be surprised if the green and gold make a move for him now that he’s a free agent.

Green Bay badly needs a reliable No. 2 WR to take the heat off Davante Adams, and Fuller certainly fits the bill. At +250 odds, the Packers look like a fantastic prop bet here.

The pick: Green Bay Packers +250

Odds as of March 2 at Bovada