The NFL's Hard Knocks annual documentary show has given us some special moments over the years, including Rex Ryan's rants, Bob Wylie's breakdown of D-Day, and Vince Wilfork's overalls. We don't know who or what, but another elite NFL moment will surely join the list this year.
Below, I'll break down which team will on this year's version of the show as well as some betting trends and history from Hard Knocks teams of past:
Jets Favored To Appear On 2023 Hard Knocks
Last year, the NFL announced in March the Detroit Lions would headline the 2022 preseason version of Hard Knocks. But here we are, in June, still waiting for the 2023 team.
PFT's Mike Florio suggests the league could be struggling to find a fit this year, with two of the top contenders already declining to appear on the show. So, who do the bookmakers think will star?
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| New York Jets | -350 |
| Chicago Bears | +550 |
| New Orleans Saints | +600 |
| Washington Commanders | +650 |
The Jets sure seem like the obvious fits to be on 2023 Hard Knocks, right?
They've got the perfect formula: A new QB in Aaron Rodgers, Robert Saleh as one of the more interesting young coaches in the league, and NFL playoff odds suggests the Jets will be heading back to the postseason for the first time since 2010. A few episodes of Saleh hype speeches and Rodgers conspiracies would make for some great television, that's for sure.
But, as Florio notes, the fact that the Jets haven't already been announced is odd. I agree with Florio when he guesses that the league really want the Jets to be on this year's show, but the team just isn't willing to sign off... yet.
Jets QB Aaron Rodgers with a deep throw to WR Malik Taylor đź‘€ pic.twitter.com/O7lHZtfze2
— Sharp Football Analysis (@SharpFBAnalysis) June 5, 2023
Commanders Best Value Bet For 2023 Hard Knocks
So, as the Jets continue to hold out, I think the Commanders are a solid value pick to be on this year's preseason NFL Hard Knocks. With new ownership in Washington, this year's show could be the perfect opportunity for the NFL and the Commanders to start changing the narratives around the Washington franchise after a messy and controversy-filled tenure under former owner Dan Snyder.
Head Coach Ron Rivera and new OC Eric Bienemy could star as a dynamic coaching duo set to turn this Commanders franchise into a serious contender. It's certainly not as entertaining as Aaron Rodgers and the Jets, but it's realistic.
If the NFL really wants to entice a team to sign up for Hard Knocks, all they have to do is show them this chart:
Do NFL's Hard Knocks Teams Have Success?
| Year | Team | Record | ATS | ATS Profits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | Baltimore | 10-6 | 8-7-1 | N/A |
| 2002 | Dallas | 5-11 | 7-8-1 | N/A |
| 2007 | Kansas City | 4-12 | 7-8-1 | N/A |
| 2008 | Dallas | 9-7 | 7-9 | N/A |
| 2009 | Cincinnati | 10-6 | 7-9 | N/A |
| 2010 | NY Jets | 11-5 | 9-7 | N/A |
| 2012 | Miami | 7-9 | 7-8-1 | N/A |
| 2013 | Cincinnati | 11-5 | 10-5-1 | N/A |
| 2014 | Atlanta | 6-10 | 7-9 | N/A |
| 2015 | Houston | 9-7 | 9-7 | +$48.22 |
| 2016 | LA Rams | 4-12 | 4-11-1 | -$738.39 |
| 2017 | Tampa Bay | 5-11 | 6-9-1 | -$358.19 |
| 2018 | Cleveland | 7-8-1 | 10-6 | +$307.42 |
| 2019 | Las Vegas | 7-9 | 8-8 | -$91.83 |
| 2020 | LA Chargers | 7-9 | 8-7-1 | +$36.37 |
| 2020 | LA Rams | 10-6 | 9-7 | +$119.70 |
| 2021 | Dallas | 12-5 | 13-4 | +$786.16 |
| 2021 | Indianapolis | 9-8 | 10-7 | +$210.99 |
| 2022 | Cardinals | 3-14 | 12-5 | +$590.92 |
| 2022 | Lions | 9-8 | 8-9 | -$164.06 |
| TOTAL | 20 TEAMS | 155-168-1 | 166-150-8 | +$747.31 |
Despite posting a slightly below .500 record in regular-season play following appearances on Hard Knocks, the featured teams have defied expectations, covering the spread at a profitable clip. With a 166-150-8 all-time ATS record, if you bet $100 on every game Hard Knocks participants played in the following season, you’d have +$747.31 in all-time earnings.
Since 2018 (eight Hard Knocks seasons), only one featured franchise has posted an ATS record below .500.
Dallas Cowboys: Hard Knocks Heroes
One reason the recent Hard Knocks participants have been so profitable against the spread is thanks to the 2021 Dallas Cowboys. With a 12-5 overall record, the Cowboys smashed spreads all year, posting a 13-4 ATS record for +$786.16 for $100 bettors. Dak Prescott and company finished as the best ATS team in the NFL.
How To Use Hard Knocks Betting Trends:
The best way to use this Hard Knocks betting advice is to head over to one of our top NFL Betting Sites and find a point spread to wager on. A spread in football is a figure made by odds specialists that reflects the expected margin of victory or defeat for NFL teams.
The “favorite” team would need to cover the set number of points (denoted by a minus sign) and the “underdog” has to win outright or not lose the game by more than the set number. Typically, the point spread for an NFL game would look like this:
Dallas Cowboys -7
Detroit Lions +7
This means that the Cowboys are favored to beat the Lions by seven points or more.
