The Houston Texans started the season 0-3 but have won their last five games to propel themselves right into the thick of the AFC South race. Despite their hot streak, they find themselves underdogs on the road against the Denver Broncos, whom oddsmakers set as 3-point favorites, with a total set at 46.5.
- Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games heading into a bye week.
- Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five home games.
- The UNDER has hit in seven of Houston’s last 10 games.
MY PICK FOR SUNDAY: HOUSTON +3
The Texans lost three straight games to start the season and looked all out of sorts. Too many turnovers on offense, and the defense was neither forcing turnovers nor being particularly effective in any area.
They’ve since won five straight games, and their play during this streak has been a much different story. Houston has cut back on the turnovers, including not committing a single one in the last two games. The defense has been much better, yielding fewer than 300 total yards in three of the last four contests. The run game is picking up steam, as Lamar Miller has topped the 100-yard mark in consecutive weeks, while DeAndre Hopkins is third in the NFL in receiving yards and fourth in receiving touchdowns.
Denver, on the other hand, is heading in the wrong direction. The Broncos opened the year with two victories but have lost five of their last six. The biggest culprit? The once-formidable defense, which this season has allowed at least 20 points in six of eight games and allows the sixth-most rushing yards per game.
The next-biggest culprit has been the disappointing play of quarterback Case Keenum. Brought in to provide stability to Denver’s offense, Keenum has struggled, throwing a league-leading 10 interceptions, while also being sacked 22 times, the fifth-most in the NFL.
One team has its offense getting in sync, the defense improving and is playing winning football. The other has defensive holes and a struggling offense and is trending downward. Although the Texans are a road underdog, I’m looking at them to not only cover but to win outright.
ALL SIGNS POINT TO UNDER
No matter how you cut it up, the trends scream that this game is going UNDER.
Five of Denver’s last seven games have gone UNDER (average combined score: 47.29). The UNDER has hit in four of Houston’s last five road games (average combined score: 43.4) and in seven of its last 10 games overall.
Even head-to-head, four of the last five meetings between these clubs have seen the total finish UNDER (average combined score: 46.6).
While those combined scores all hover around this Sunday’s total of 46.5, these two teams have had a recent trend of seeing their games land on the lower-scoring side. Houston will look to exploit Denver’s porous run defense, while the improved Texans D, which by no coincidence is rising as J.J. Watt looks fully past his two-year injury woes, will try to force Case Keenum into more turnovers, all which equal keeping points off the board.
With Houston looking to maintain its division lead and Denver desperate to stay in the playoff hunt, I’d expect a hard-nosed contest, making the UNDER a very popular pick for bettors.
TEXANS SUFFER BIG INJURY
While Houston is riding a five-game win streak, its Week 8 contest did come at a cost as wide receiver Will Fuller will miss the rest of the season with a torn right ACL.
A 2016 first-round pick, Fuller was one of the NFL’s premier No. 2 receivers, acting as a lethal threat alongside DeAndre Hopkins. He had 32 catches for 503 yards and four touchdowns, and his 11.7 yards per target was second in the NFL this season among players averaging at least six targets per game.
With Fuller gone, Houston will either look to promote rookie Keke Coutee, who missed Week 8 with a hamstring injury, or veteran Sammie Coates. Another option for the Texans is to explore the trade market, with veteran receivers DeSean Jackson, Demaryius Thomas, Pierre Garcon and Golden Tate all potentially on the move.
Whatever route the Texans choose, it will be a slight downgrade from Fuller, who has shown great chemistry with quarterback Deshaun Watson, connecting for 11 touchdowns in 11 games played together.
