Colts vs Broncos Picks & Odds: Points Could Be At A Premium In Denver

The Indianapolis Colts (1-2-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) and Denver Broncos (2-2, 1-3) are both off to disappointing starts, and underachieving offenses are a big reason why. The Colts have gone UNDER the total in nine straight games going into Thursday’s contest at Mile High, where the Broncos are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 as a favorite.

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Colts vs Broncos Sportsbook Odds 

Indianapolis has covered six of its last seven as an underdog while Denver has lost nine of its last 11 in prime time, but that didn’t prevent early bettors from backing the Broncos. Denver had moved from 2.5-point favorites to 3.5-point chalk by the time of writing, while the total had ticked up a point to 44 by Monday night.

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Banged-Up Taylor, Indianapolis Having Tough Time Running Football Effectively

After Sportsbook last year with four losses in their first five games, the Colts are off to another disappointing start in 2022. But unlike last season, when turnover-prone QB Carson Wentz took a lot of the blame, Indy’s inability to run the ball effectively may be the Colts’ biggest issue. 

Running behind a revamped offensive line, star back Jonathan Taylor has averaged just 3.3 yards per carry since Week 1. Taylor has been dealing with a nagging toe injury, and he also injured his ankle in last week’s 24-17 loss to Tennessee — an ailment that could force him to miss Thursday’s contest against the Broncos. If Taylor can’t suit up, expect the Colts to split carries between Phillip Lindsay and Nyheim Hines.

Indy will also be short-handed on the defensive side of the ball, where star linebacker Shaquille Leonard and veteran lineman Tyquan Lewis are both in concussion protocol and have been ruled out for Thursday. Safety Julian Blackmon (ankle) may also have to miss his second straight game.

Denver’s Top Running Back Out For Season, Backup Struggling With Fumbles

Russell Wilson has yet to look comfortable in his first season in Denver’s offense, and now the Broncos are having issues with their running game as well. Starting running back Javonte Williams suffered a season-ending knee injury in last week’s 32-23 loss in Las Vegas, likely leaving Melvin Gordon as the lead back going into Thursday’s game vs the Colts.

That’s a problem because of the way Gordon has — or hasn’t — been taking care of the ball for the past decade. The veteran has committed the most fumbles and lost fumbles in the NFL since 2012, including Sunday’s miscue that the Raiders returned 68 yards for a game-changing touchdown. Over the past two seasons, three of Gordon’s fumbles have gone for six the other way.

Denver could choose to feature Latavius Murray at running back after signing the veteran off the Saints’ practice roster on Monday, while Mike Boone is also an option to get some carries. Production from any of those players will be key with Wilson nursing a sore throwing shoulder following the loss in Vegas. On the other side of the ball, Denver will be without pass rusher Randy Gregory for the next several games due to knee surgery.

Colts: Keys To Win

Whether it’s a banged-up Taylor or the tandem of Hines and Lindsay, the Colts need to find a way to move the ball better on the ground and take the pressure off aging quarterback Matt Ryan. A strong start would also be a big help for an Indy squad that has been outscored 65-23 in the Sportsbook half this season.

Broncos: Keys To Win

Until their offense gets going, Denver’s going to have to continue relying on a defense that ranks fourth in total yards allowed and sixth in points against. That defense may also be able to turn in a game-changing play of its own vs a Colts team that has already turned the ball over nine times this season.  

NFL Computer Pick: Colts +3.5

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