The Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1 SU, 5-6 ATS) will look to win their first home game with new head coach Jeff Saturday in the Week 12 Monday Night Football matchup when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7, 4-5-1) as small home favorites at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. The Colts lost 17-16 to the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday, but they still covered the spread as 6.5-point home underdogs to improve to 2-0 ATS under Saturday.

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Steelers vs Colts Opening Odds

Indianapolis has played extremely hard for Saturday in two games so far, and bettors who do not follow the team closely will get to see that Monday on national television. The Colts have split the two games and covered both, nearly upsetting the Eagles last week before Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts scored the game-winning touchdown on a seven-yard run with 1:20 remaining.

Meanwhile, the Steelers were fairly competitive with the Cincinnati Bengals at times before falling 37-30 and failing to cover as 3.5-point home underdogs. The point spread and total have each dipped slightly by half a point in early wagering action, and it would not be surprising to see them drop more before kickoff.

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Pittsburgh’s Defense Must Perform Better to Help Offense

While running back Najee Harris has quietly put together his two best games of the season on the ground over the past two weeks for the Steelers, the success of the team ultimately runs through rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett. That might not be exactly what head coach Mike Tomlin expected heading into the season, but he needs Pickett to be successful in order to win.

By all accounts, Pickett’s play last week should have been good enough to earn a victory, as he completed 25 of 42 passes for 265 yards with one touchdown and did not throw an interception for the second straight game. However, the Pittsburgh defense let Tomlin and his players down, giving up over 20 points for the first time this year with reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt on the field.

Indy a Better Offensive Team With Ryan Back Under Center

The best move Saturday made upon becoming the head coach of the Colts was re-inserting veteran Matt Ryan as the starting quarterback. While Ryan has been underwhelming for much of the season, he still gives his team a chance to win more than alternatives like Sam Ehlinger, who produced 304 passing yards and one interception in two games while getting sacked 11 times.

This should be another good test for Ryan and his group of receivers, while running back Jonathan Taylor has rushed 44 times for 231 yards and two touchdowns in the last two games as well. The key will be producing multiple touchdowns, something the team was able to do in a 25-20 upset win over the Las Vegas Raiders two weeks ago with three of them before only scoring one last week.

Steelers: Keys To Victory

The total on this game is one of the lowest of the year, and that is significant considering weather will not be a factor playing inside a domed stadium. Pittsburgh needs to make sure points are at a premium and play like the team did in a 20-10 victory against the New Orleans Saints two weeks ago. It would also help immensely if Pickett continues to play under control without turning the ball over, something that could be the difference.

Colts: Keys To Victory

Indianapolis has proven it can win lower-scoring games (i.e. Weeks 3 and 5), but the team would certainly prefer to put more points on the scoreboard like it did in Weeks 6 and 10. The Colts have scored 17 points or less in all six losses this season, so the goal will obviously be to total more than that here, including at least two touchdowns. They are 3-1 SU and ATS when scoring two majors or more, which makes that the biggest key.  

NFL Computer Pick: Colts -2.5  

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Shark Bites
  • Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 prime-time games.
  • Pittsburgh is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
  • The OVER is 6-2 in the past 8 meetings.
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