Super Bowl 58 is set to kick off in a matter of days, and as the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers prepare to clash in the glittering city of Las Vegas, bettors around the globe are gearing up for the biggest sports betting event of the year. With a never-ending amount of betting options available, knowledge is your best bet for success. Here are five Super Bowl betting nuggets to know before you bet on 49ers vs Chiefs.
Odds Shark Super Bowl 58 Betting Resources
Establish the Run: A super Bowl Path to Victory
Fans and analysts alike have heard the expression bandied about in football circles time and time again. “Establish the run to win the football game.” The longstanding coachspeak has been ushered into football headlines forever. The importance of rushing the football effectively has fallen off dramatically in recent years as spread-offenses have taken over the NFL. However, when it comes to betting on the Super Bowl, there is a significant trend to follow.
Incredibly, teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl have gone an unreal 40-14-3 ATS, and 42-15 SU all-time. Keep in mind, the Chiefs defense ranked 28th in rushing defense expected points added per play this season, while the 49ers topped the charts in rushing offense EPA. Unfortunately, the 49ers rushing defense hasn't been much better, ranking 26th in EPA per play. San Francisco rushed for 140.5 yards a game this season, good for third in the league, while Kansas City ranked 18th with 108.3 yards per game on the ground.
#NFL 2023 Passing & Rushing Performances!
— Sam Burch (@sburch323) January 12, 2024
- 49ers in their own tier offensively
- Chargers with a historically bad rushing offense
- 6 teams with better rushing offenses than passing
- 49ers & Chiefs much better at defending the pass
- Falcons had a great rushing defense pic.twitter.com/L4Bw2y7iSu
Keep in mind, Kyle Shanahan is one of the greatest rushing play-callers in NFL history, but that hasn't translated to victory in his previous Super Bowl appearances. Plus, the Chiefs just held the Baltimore Ravens top ranked rushing offense to 81 yards on the ground.
On the flip side, Andy Reid's offenses have been notoriously pass-heavy throughout his career. But, he's fed running back Isiah Pacheco an average of 21 carries per game this postseason. The battle on the ground will be fascinating to watch as Super Bowl 58 plays out.
The Underdog Phenomenon
Intriguingly, this Super Bowl is just the third time where the defending champions enter the game as underdogs. Kansas City find themselves as two-point underdogs heading into Sunday's big game and history suggests the Chiefs face an uphill climb to victory.
Each of the previous two defending champions who were listed as underdogs heading into the Super Bowl - the 1978 Dallas Cowboys and the 2014 Seattle Seahawks - suffered defeats. Legendary Steelers quarterback Terry Bradshaw threw for 368 and four touchdowns as Pittsburgh scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns within 19 seconds to defeat the Cowboys 35-31. Pittsburgh came out on top for spread bettors after entering the game as 3.5-point favorites. While Tom Brady (who else?) led an inspired fourth-quarter comeback to defeat the Seahawks 28-24 in Super Bowl XLIX. That game also gave us one of the greatest moments in Super Bowl history.
The STUNNING conclusion of Super Bowl XLIX — #Seahawks and #Patriots
— Kevin Gallagher (@KevG163) February 1, 2024
Marshawn Lynch is stopped at the one, setting the stage for one of NFL history's most shocking moments
Seattle eschews the run and Russell Wilson's pass is picked off by rookie Malcolm Butler
February 1, 2015 pic.twitter.com/ZfPkNuzw0H
At the same time, Patrick Mahomes is now an uncanny 11-1-1 ATS (91.7%) as an underdog in his career, with 10 straight up victories. Something's gotta give in Super Bowl 58.
All-time Favorites' Super Bowl Blunders
The Super Bowl has witnessed its fair share of upsets, particularly when it comes to heavily favored teams. In the past 23 NFL seasons, three teams - the 2007 and 2017 New England Patriots, along with the 2001 St. Louis Rams - entered the playoffs as favorites in every regular and postseason game. Including the Super Bowl.
In Super Bowl 36 Tom Brady wins his 1st of 7 starting his SB legacy 🏆pic.twitter.com/XcOE9R6KGw
— BetUS Pro Football (@BetUSProFB) August 3, 2023
Despite their dominant regular season performances, each of these teams fell short of their championship goals. Ironically, all three Super Bowls featured Tom Brady. As a little known, second-year sixth-round pick led the game-winning drive in Super Bowl 36 to defeat the "Greatest Show on Turf" Rams. San Francisco's average margin of victory of 10.5 points this season was second in the NFL, behind only the Baltimore Ravens.
The ATS Losing Streak Conundrum
As you'd expect coming off back-too-back fourth quarter playoff comebacks, the San Francisco 49ers have failed to cover the spread this postseason. In fact, they're just the second team in the Super Bowl era to advance to the big game after losing three straight games against the spread. The only other squad? The 2007 New England Patriots, who famously lost Super Bowl 42 to Eli Manning and the New York Giants.
15 years ago today: The #Giants upset the 18-0 #Patriots on Super Bowl 42.
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) February 3, 2024
David Tyree made the play of his life and forever created an iconic moment with @EliManningpic.twitter.com/4Dz8BYBwSw
Moreover, the team who has won more games in the regular season has struggled in recent Super Bowls, going 1-15 ATS since 2003. San Francisco went 12-5 this season, while the Chiefs went just 2-4 down the stretch to finish the regular season at 11-6.
Andy Reid's Bye Week Mastery
The Super Bowl's traditional two-week hiatus plays right into the hands of Big Red. Andy Reid has demonstrated the ability to maximize his team's performance with extra preparation time throughout his head coaching career.
Reid boasts an impressive 16-9 SU record in Week 1 matchups, and has consistently been a step ahead of opposing coaches after extended rest periods throughout his career. Furthermore, his teams have gone 31-7 SU when playing with over 13 days of rest outside of Week 1. Even more remarkably, with signal-callers in Donovan McNabb and Patrick Mahomes under centre, Reid's teams are 26-3 SU. Additionally, Reid is 32-23-4 ATS as a 1-3 point underdog in his head coaching career. Likewise, Big Red is an impressive 10-3 ATS versus the 49ers.
