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Tua Tagovailoa NFL Draft Betting Props: When Will He Be Taken?

Tua Tagovailoa Betting Odds November 19, 2019

That crunch you heard in NCAA college football in Week 12 wasn’t the Alabama Crimson Tide’s College Football Playoff hopes – it was starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s dislocated hip that will have him on the sidelines for the foreseeable future.

The junior signal-caller was projected to be a top-three pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, but now his draft status is uncertain with his health status up in the air.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released betting props for how Tua’s next 12 months will unfold, ranging from whether he’ll play for Alabama in Week 1 of the 2020 season to where he could be selected in the upcoming NFL draft.

Let’s break down some of these props and try to handicap them as best we can with the information we have.

Where Will Tua be Taken in the 2020 NFL Draft?

After being projected to be at least a top-three pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, oddsmakers have made the range of the 11th to the 20th pick in the first round as the option with the lowest odds (+150) for where Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa could be picked. And that makes sense given his talent and track record in college football.

Up until his dislocated hip in Week 12 vs Mississippi State, Tua was considered a can’t-miss quarterback prospect in the NFL with his ability to scramble and make plays in what is widely considered the best football conference (SEC) in college football.

He is projected to make a full recovery and should be throwing and training again in three months according to medical experts. But NFL teams are typically uneasy about taking players with an injury history near the top of the draft.

He’ll definitely still get taken in the first round and with at least eight teams needing a long-term quarterback, it’ll likely be in the first 10 picks (+200).

Tua Tagovailoa 2020 NFL Draft Position
PicksOdds
11-20+150
1-10+200
Rounds 2 to 7+250
21-32+300

Odds as of November 19 at BetOnline

How many Quarterbacks will be Drafted Before Tua?

There wasn’t much of a debate on who would be selected first between LSU QB Joe Burrow and Tagovailoa going into the season, as Burrow wasn’t even a betting option for the Heisman Trophy at the start of the year.

Now, Burrow has all but locked up the top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft and even Oregon’s Justin Herbert is in contention to be taken before Tua in the draft and the odds imply that at -110.

Burrow and Herbert are all but locks now to go before Tagovailoa in the draft as neither has the injury history Tua has through three years of playing at Alabama. But could another quarterback be taken before Tua? The only other quarterback who could potentially be taken before him is former teammate and current Oklahoma QB Jalen Hurts.

Hurts has been sensational with the Sooners after transferring from Alabama but the knock on him about his throwing ability continues to plague him in Oklahoma. He may end up being a decent quarterback in the NFL but talent evaluators and front offices would likely rather take a chance on Tua recovering from his hip surgery than on Hurts becoming an accurate passer.

Total Quarterbacks Selected Before Tua Tagovailoa In 2020 NFL Draft
OptionOdds
UNDER 2.5 QBs Selected-130
OVER 2.5 QBs Selected-110

Odds as of November 19 at BetOnline

Will Tua Tagovailoa Play For Alabama In Week 1 of 2020 NCAA Season?
OptionOdds
Yes+300
No-500

Odds as of November 19 at BetOnline