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Biden Favorite Over Trump to Win 2020 U.S. Election

Odds to win 2020 election Biden favorite

For the first time since mid-March, when coronavirus fears and concerns peaked and President Donald Trump’s pandemic response was sharply criticized, former vice-president Joe Biden’s odds to win the 2020 U.S. presidential election have surpassed the incumbent’s and he is now the favorite to win in five months’ time.

On the heels of 10 straight days of civil unrest – both peaceful and violent protests – and an empathetic attempt to address social injustices, Biden’s all-time high odds are -110 to win at Bovada and -130 at BetOnline, while President Trump’s odds dipped back to EVEN money after he spent more energy addressing the negative elements that come with emotionally fueled protest rather than make a conscious effort to heal a nation literally on fire.
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2020 U.S. Presidential Election Odds Tracker

Amid a global coronavirus health crisis and turbulent stock market sessions, online sportsbook Bovada has had to move odds just as quickly as the news continues to come out. Please check our updated 2020 election odds tracker that shows how the presidential favorites’ chances to win have changed over the past few months.

2020 Presidential Election Odds Chart
CandidateJune 4June 3May 27May 20May 13May 6April 29April 22April 15April 8April 2March 28March 18March 16March 14March 8Mar 4Feb 27Feb 13Feb 5Feb 4Jan 29Jan 21Jan 14Jan 7
Joe Biden-110+105+120+130+130+135+120+125+125+140+140+130-105-105+115+125+160+2000+1600+850+600+550+450+550+400
Donald TrumpEVEN-115-120-120-120-120-120-125-125-120-115-115-105EVEN-115-130-150-180-170-150-140-135-140-145-115
Hillary Clinton+4000+4000+2500+2200+2200+2000+4000+5000+5000+6000+6600+6600+5000+5000+6000+10000+6000+8000+6600+5000+5000+5000+5000+4000+4000
Michelle Obama+8000+8000+5000+5000+5000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Bernie SandersOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTB+2500+1800+3000+4000+3000+2500+1600+1200+275+375+425+350+250+500+500+700
Mike Pence+8000+8000+9500+5000+6000+6000+6000+5000+5000+5000+6000+6000+4000+3000+2800+20000+20000+12500+15000+12500+12500+12500+12500+8000+8000
Andrew Cuomo+10000+8000+6000+5000+4000+3000+3000+3300+3300+2200+1000+2200N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Nikki Haley+12500+15000+20000+20000+20000+15000+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000OTB+10000+10000+20000+50000+30000+20000+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000

Odds as of June 4 at Bovada

How can betting odds predict the next POTUS?

Check out our How to Bet on the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election article to learn more about political betting.

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2020 Election: World Events

Anything we write in this space may come across as trite compared to events unfolding in America and around the world. At the end of the day, gambling, from sports to politics, is a hobby, entertainment and a popular form of escapism.

However, it’s impossible to ignore how current events are directly linked to this sector. It’s evident, based on Biden’s odds surge in recent days, that bettors are just as nervous with their money as Trump’s inner circle is with his re-election chances.

President Trump’s law-and-order mantra will continue to play well with his base supporters, who live in Electoral College-friendly states that the president will need to lean on heavily in coming weeks and months.

However, his actions and efforts during the pandemic only maintained his odds lead over Joe Biden. Look at the above chart and notice that before this dip back to EVEN, he was stuck at -120 for five consecutive weeks. This after he nipped at -200 odds back in January.

The sitting president’s odds were teetering. His response to the death of George Floyd was not that of a uniter, a consoler-in-chief – roles that, when necessary, both Democratic and Republican presidents have embraced the past 200-plus years. Trump fell back to what he knows, tough love and law and order; when the country needed a hand on its shoulder, he came back with an iron fist and a Bible prop.

As of today, the betting public isn’t buying that this form of leadership is worthy of backing.

2020 Election: Poll Position

The most recent Monmouth University poll has Joe Biden leading Trump by 11 points.

On the same day that Biden’s odds surged ahead of Trump’s, Rasmussen’s daily approval rating of the president sat at -10, which, oddly enough, is seven points higher than it was last Wednesday.

2020 Election: More Political Prop Bets

While Donald Trump won the 2016 Electoral College vote in a landslide, 304-227, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly three million votes. While bookmakers believe the Democratic presidential candidate wins the popular vote again, Trump is down to 20-to-1 to win the popular vote by less than 1.5%.

Popular Vote Margin of Victory
OptionOdds
GOP by 10.5% or more+3000
GOP by 9.0% to 10.5%+5000
GOP by 7.5% to 9%+5000
GOP by 6.0% to 7.5%+5000
GOP by 4.5% to 6.0%+5000
GOP by 3.0% to 4.5%+2500
GOP by 1.5% to 3.0%+1700
GOP by less than 1.5%+2000 (was +1000 May 27)
Dems by less than 1.5%+600
Dems by 1.5% to 3.0%+400
Dems by 3.0% to 4.5%+400
Dems by 4.5% to 6.0%+650
Dems by 6.0% to 7.5%+1200
Dems by 7.5% to 9.0%+1800
Dems by 9.0% to 10.5%+2000
Dems by 10.5% or more+1200

Odds as of June 4 at Bovada

Since Biden established himself as the Democratic front-runner, odds are out on who his running mate will be. During the last debate, the former vice-president pledged to nominate a woman as his running mate.

While Kamala Harris remains a heavy favorite to earn the nomination at +175 this week, look at Florida Representative Val Demings’ rise up to +375 from +2000 just two weeks ago.

Who Will Joe Biden Choose As His Vice-Presidential Running Mate?
OptionJune 4May 27May 20May 13April 29April 22*April 8April 2March 25March 13March 10March 8
Kamala Harris+140+175+150+165+190-150+250+210+175+200+250+300
Val Demings+375+900+2000+2500+4000+4000+1400+1400+2000OTBOTBOTB
Elizabeth Warren+800+700+700+550+500+450+1500+1400+1200+500+1200+425
Stacey Abrams+1100+1200+900+1200+1200+1200+900+1000+400+500+350+325
Michelle Obama+1500+750+750+750+1000+1800+3000+3000+2800+1400+1000N/A
Amy Klobuchar+1600+325+415+450+360+400+400+300+300+250+175+220
Susan Rice+1800+1600+1600+1600+9500N/A+5000+6600+6000OTBOTBOTB
Tammy Duckworth+1800+4000+2500+3000+3000+5000+3000+5000+2200OTBOTBOTB
Gretchen Whitmer+1800+1500+1000+1000+1400+600+325+600+1500OTBOTBOTB
Michelle Lujan Grisham+3000+4000+5000+3000+6000N/A+2400+5500+3500N/A+2000N/A
Hillary Clinton+4000+3500+3000+2000+2500+3300+2000+2000+2500OTBOTBOTB
Tammy Baldwin+5000+5000+10000+5000+4000+5000+5000+5500+3300OTBOTBOTB
Catherine Cortez Masto+8000+2000+1800+1800+1600+2000+1000+900+2000+2000+2500+900
Tulsi Gabbard+10000+10000+10000+9500+9500N/A+5000+5000+5000OTBOTBOTB

Odds as of June 4 at Bovada, while *April 22 are BetOnline.

Popular Vote vs Electoral College Vote Odds

Take a look at the updated odds from BetOnline on what’s going to transpire with both the popular vote and the Electoral College this time around.

The Dems are back up to -400, from -290 last week, to win the popular vote after weeks stuck at -275, with the Republicans coming back as +275 underdogs.

For months, the likeliest election result for Trump has been that he’d win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote as he did in 2016. After six straight weeks at +140, the most likely scenario is Trump to lose both the Electoral College and popular vote at +115.

What’s striking is the gap between +115 to lose both electoral and popular and +210 to win electoral and lose popular. So, if you believe Trump wins this year’s election in a landslide, there is great value in that wager.

Donald Trump Election Special
OptionJune 4May 27May 20May 13May 6April 29April 22April 15April 8April 2March 25March 18March 10March 8
To win Electoral College, lose popular vote+210+210+225+225+225+225+225+225+200+200+200+200+200+150
To lose Electoral College and popular vote+115+115+140+140+140+140+140+140+110+110+110+110+125+200
To win Electoral College and popular vote+225+225+200+225+225+225+250+250+300+300+300+300+300+250
To lose Electoral College, win popular vote+1600+1600+1500+1400+1400+1400+1400+1400+2500+2500+2500+2500+1400+1400

Odds as of June 4 at BetOnline 

Which party will win the popular vote in the 2020 presidential election?
OptionJune 4May 27May 20May 13May 6April 29April 22April 15April 8April 2March 25March 18March 10March 8
Democrats-400-290-275-275-275-275-275-280-290-300-330-290-275-190
Republicans+275+210+200+200+200+200+200+205+210+220+235+210+200+145

Odds as of June 4 at Bovada

Which Party will Win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
PartyJune 4May 27May 20May 13May 6April 29April 22April 15April 8April 2March 25March 18March 13March 10March 8
Republican Party-110-125-125-125-125-125-125-125-125-115-115-115-115-130-160
Democratic Party-120-105-105-105-105-105-105-105-105-115-115-115-115EVENa+120

Odds as of June 4 at Bovada