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Texas Senate Election Odds: Bet on Beto?

With advance polling already well underway and the midterm election date set for Tuesday, Democrat Beto O’Rourke remains a +300 underdog to usurp Republican incumbent Ted Cruz. Cruz has represented the state as a Republican since 2013 but is being pushed hard by the up-and-coming O’Rourke (D), who serves Texas’s 16th district.

Over the past few weeks, Cruz’s odds to win have moved from -300 to -550 and now back to -400, which is indicative of the volatility seen among voters. There’s no doubt that Cruz is a heavy favorite to retain his seat. However, in a political climate that changes daily, it will ultimately be up to voter turnout on Tuesday. 

O’rourke Encouraged by Early Voter Turnout

The early voter turnout, which was over 4.5 million people as of Sunday, is more than the entire voter turnout in Texas for the 2014 midterm elections and the 2012 presidential election. O’Rourke was quoted on the weekend as saying, “if this continues, we win.” 

That’s a pretty confident answer from a candidate who, just a couple of weeks ago, looked to be destined to lose. North Texas, sometimes known for voter apathy, has come out strong in early voting and O’Rourke sees this as key to any potential win. 

This is a Republican Seat, Right? 

The outside world might think, “Oh, Texas, that’s Republican. Why is Beto even running?” But they’d be quite wrong in thinking it’s a foregone conclusion that the Lone Star State is a lone-party state too.

Sure, the Senate seat from Texas has been locked in for the Republicans since Kay Bailey Hutchison in 1993, but before that, the seat belonged to the Democrats for 145 of the previous 147 years.

Think you can predict who takes this seat on November 6? Here are the current odds at  Bovada to win the Texas Senate race:

2018 US Senate Election WInner - Texas
  • Ted Cruz  (R)                    -400
  • Beto O’Rourke  (D)           +300
Vote Margin in the 2018 Texas US Senate Race
  • 0%-1.9%                +250
  • 2%-3.9%                +250
  • 4%-5.9%                +350
  • 6%-7.9%                +500
  • 8%-9.9%                +800
  • 10%-11.9%            +1000
  • 12% or more          +1000
2018 US Senate Election - Closest Race
  • Nevada                 +300
  • Florida                  +400
  • Arizona                 +500
  • Missouri                +500
  • Indiana                  +500
  • Texas                    +850
  • Tennessee            +900
  • Montana                +1500

Odds as of November 5 at  Bovada

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