Trump Changes Pandemic Tone, Election Odds Improve

Traditionally a slogan saved for the annual NCAA basketball tournament, March madness endured a different tone this year. Buzzer-beaters, Cinderella stories and trips to the Sweet 16 were benched in favor of press conferences, case counts and socially distanced trips to the fridge.

However, those cheers once saved for the road to the Final Four are now aimed directly at our health-care workers, scientists and the Dr. Actons, Dr. Faucis and Dr. Birxes of the world. We reference their names as we would LeBron, Tiger and Serena. And, in the middle of observing our heroes-in-motion offense and pandemic defense, the United States will hold a presidential election seven months from now.

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2020 U.S. Presidential Election Odds Tracker

Amid a global coronavirus health crisis and turbulent stock market sessions, online sportsbook Sportsbook has had to move odds just as quickly as the news continues to come out. Please check our updated 2020 election odds tracker that shows how the presidential favorites’ chances to win have changed over the past few months.

Odds as of April 2 at Sportsbook

While his odds to win the election have improved, up from -105 to -115 week over week, President Donald Trump’s tone and attitude toward the coronavirus pandemic continues to evolve. We’ll touch on this more in detail below.

His top challenger, former vice-president Joe Biden, whose odds dipped back to +140, is attempting to win the Democratic nomination from a new-normal virtual world where communication is dominated by video streaming interviews and social media posts. Gone are the political rallies and primary election checkpoints. This drastic change to the political landscape has afforded Bernie Sanders new life whereas all seemed lost after Super Tuesday (which, by the way, was less than a month ago). The Vermont senator’s odds are still thin at +1800, but he’s still in the race.

Putting aside whether you could envision President Trump stepping aside and letting Mike Pence (+6000) run for president later this year, the only other name registering a heartbeat right now is New York Governor Andrew Cuomo at +1000. His visibility on a national scale daily, while maintaining a perceived calm and rational demeanor as his hot-spot state fights the pandemic, has caused some political insiders to ponder “what if he’s our guy?” when we beat this virus and the pandemic begins to subside.

2020 Election: Coronavirus Response

Nearly a month after saying, “This is the flu. This is like the flu,” referring to coronavirus, President Trump admitted, “It’s not the flu. It’s vicious,” during the last coronavirus task force briefing of March. His work-in-progress, ever-evolving about-face somber commentary came on the same day Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx unveiled projection models that expected the coronavirus to claim 100,000 to 200,000 lives in the United States if the country follows social distancing guidelines that were recently extended through April 30.

Trump’s attempts to play down the severity of the coronavirus have been well-documented. His public comments from late January through early March will be at the center of any debate between himself and the Democratic nominee once presidential debate season lifts off later this year.

Whether or not you believe his dismissive comments on the seriousness of the growing pandemic matter will likely guide you and the betting public to pick a favorite to win the 2020 election. If you believe the esthetics of the administration’s handling of things was above average, odds are you’re going to want to back Trump. If you believe the impeachment and Senate hearings distracted Trump from the seriousness of the moment, you’re likely going to add him to a bet slip.

However, the two demos that will define which way these election odds tip in the coming months are Democratic moderates and Independents. Those two electorate subsections recently boosted Trump’s approval rating in a national poll. If he can maintain those numbers and connect with those on the fence about who is best to run the United States over the next four years, he’ll win by a large margin.

Why?

Well, when was the last time you heard from and listened to Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders?

2020 Election: Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders

The former vice-president admitted it took his staff four days to upgrade and install technology required to boot up a campaign-from-home live-streaming platform. Four days. In the week that followed, Biden’s on-camera messaging via Skype interviews and the like were scattered. Gone were the valuable in-person town halls, debates and glad-handing on the campaign trail.

This pandemic has handcuffed his campaign’s ability to seize the moment ... or it hasn’t. Presidential candidates, especially those running against the incumbent, need to prove they are problem-solvers and because of this unique moment, Biden can’t lean on his years in the Obama administration. He needs to spark something within his base, but with Trump utilizing his daily briefings as quasi-campaign rallies, the incumbent has muted Biden’s (often) muffled message.

As I write this, Senator Sanders is part of a live-streaming panel on “The View.” So, like Biden, he’s finding ways around social-distancing limitations and snatching opportunities to connect with a stay-at-home nation.

With health-care coverage on the minds of every American these days, it would not surprise me if the Sanders campaign got a second look from those who had turned their backs on them. While his Medicare-for-All plan is a turnoff for many, many is not all. Whether you want to admit it or not, the United States and the rest of the world will come out of this pandemic changed. Perhaps with that change comes a new-found view of America’s current health-care system and its limitations. 

2020 Election: Andrew Cuomo’s Poll Numbers

The New York Times reported earlier this week that New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s approval ratings shot up 27 points, to a seven-year high of 71 percent. His cool, calm, collected on-camera demeanor on top of this rise in poll numbers led many to ponder if he would consider a late campaign run.

“I’m not running for president,” he told reporters.

It seems very unlikely that he changes his mind as New York City is a hot spot for coronavirus spread due to its dense population, but Cuomo’s thanks-but-no-thanks retort doesn’t mean he can’t make an impact in this presidential race.

The governor endorsed Biden before the former vice-president even entered the race. For those who prefer Cuomo’s stat-based, to-the-point daily briefings over the national coronavirus task force campaign rallies where business leaders have been invited to the mic before Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx, perhaps his communication cachet can help boost Biden later on this year. It’s worth considering before you submit that bet.

2020 Election: More Political Prop Bets

Odds as of April 2 at Sportsbook

Since Biden established himself as the Democratic front-runner, odds are out on who his running mate will be. During the last debate, the former vice-president pledged to nominate a woman as his running mate.

Former candidate Amy Klobuchar opened as the favorite, but Senator Kamala Harris has emerged as the new betting favorite at +210 as of April 2. If you recall, Harris was quite critical of Biden during debates with sessions of verbal sparring between the two. However, Klobuchar isn’t far behind on the oddsboard at +300. Watch out for Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a vocal critic of President Trump whose odds shot up to +600 week over week.

Odds as of April 2 at Sportsbook

Popular Vote vs Electoral College Vote Odds

While President Trump won the 2016 Electoral College vote in a landslide, 304-227, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly three million votes.

Take a look at Sportsbook’s updated odds on what’s going to transpire with both the popular vote and the Electoral College this time around.

The Dems are down from -330 favorites to win the popular vote to -300 week over week, with the Republicans coming back as +220 underdogs.

For months, the likeliest election result for Trump has been that he’d win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote as he did in 2016. However, according to the most recent odds, he’s now most likely to lose the Electoral College and popular vote. Granted, at +110, there is only 47.62 percent implied probability of it happening.

What’s striking is the gap between +110 to lose both electoral and popular and +200 to win electoral and lose popular. This update is pretty jarring, but the coronavirus response and shaky stock market have done President Trump no favors the past month. So, if you believe Trump wins this year’s election in a landslide, there is great value in that wager.

Odds as of April 2 at Sportsbook

Odds as of April 2 at Sportsbook

Odds as of April 2 at Sportsbook

While opinions vary based on which economist you ask, odds are very strong that the coronavirus pandemic causes the United States to experience a recession before the end of Trump’s first term. Bookmakers agree as -750 carries an implied probability of 88.24 percent.

Odds as of April 2 at Sportsbook. The U.S. economy must experience two consecutive quarters with negative annual growth rate in real GDP (rounded to first decimal)