The 2023-24 English Premier League season is almost here. And in preparation for the kick-off of this year's EPL season, I've gone and looked at some futures markets to find my top 3 bets.
If you aren't sure what futures bets are or are new to the whole futures betting game, check out our resources on the subject.
This piece is long so go ahead and jump to one of my three futures bets:
Top 3 English Premier League Futures Bets: Chelsea
The West London side hired Mauricio Pochettino to be their manager, and a lot of people are thinking that's going to immediately vault Chelsea back into the top four of the Premier League. I've got my doubts. And look, so does Poch:
🚨 Mauricio Pochettino says Chelsea are in danger of creating a “mess” if his “unbalanced” squad is not cut down to size.
— Chelsea Dodgers (@TheBlueDodger) July 27, 2023
Pochettino, the Chelsea head coach, said tough decisions must be made in trimming the 29-man squad by up to seven players as “less is more”.#CFC… pic.twitter.com/D3KNQCjsHR
EPL Futures Bet 1: Chelsea Finish Outside of Top 4 (-175)
Chelsea's big problem last season was that the starting XI couldn't gel. There were so many new faces and changes that they could form a cohesive unit. Going through four managers in the season - Tuchel, Potter, Saltor, Lampard - also didn't help much.
That core issue of upheaval and change carries over into this season. At least seven first-team players from 22-23 are now gone:
- Christian Pulisic to AC Milan
- César Azpilicueta to Atletico Madrid
- Mason Mount to Manchester United
- Kalidou Koulibaly to Al-Hilal
- Mateo Kovacic to Manchester City
- Kai Havertz to Arsenal
- N'Golo Kante to Al-Ittihad
Sure, Chelsea has the playing staff to back-fill those positions but getting them to work as a single unit is a monumental task for Poch. Again, we aren't asking him to integrate 1-3 players into a well-oiled machine. He has to build the machine, oil it and then integrate those pieces.
I know this is an editorial take rather than one based on data, but it's impossible to ignore the fact that Chelsea hasn't fixed its core issue from the disastrous 22-23 campaign.
And with all respect to Chelsea, they haven't done anything to prove they can overtake the current top 5 of Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United, Newcastle or Liverpool.
At -175, you'll generate nearly $6 in profits on a $10 bet for Chelsea to improve from last year's 12th-place finish but not enough to finish in the top four.
Top 3 English Premier League Futures Bets: Everton
The Toffees came uncomfortably close to relegation last season. A final five games with a 2-2-1 record and eight points from a possible 15 saved them. Because of that, there's serious doubt they can factor in the top 10 this season.
Oddsmakers are giving them an 83% implied odd to stay in the bottom 10 at -500. But I believe Everton will defy the odds and jump back into the top 10.
EPL Futures Bet 2: Everton Makes Top 10 (+333)
Obviously, this is a risky bet. At +333, oddsmakers are effectively giving Everton a 23% chance to jump, at least seven spots from last year.
And I get why that might be. New manager Dyche may not be much better than Lampart was for Everton. But when you compare the two I like what Dyche has done with a tougher schedule.
| Sean Dyche | Frank Lampard | |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 18 | 20 |
| Record (Points Per Match) | 5-6-7 (1.16) | 3-6-11 (0.75) |
| Games vs Top 6* | 7 | 5 |
*Top 6 are: Man City, Arsenal, Man U, Newcastle, Liverpool, Brighton
But last season, Everton had a singular attacking option in Dominic Calvert-Lewin. When he was healthy (he only played 17 games), the forward was completely nullified scoring a pathetic two goals. That's a massive drop-off from the Calvert-Lewis. This is a striker who scored 29 goals between 2019-20 and 2020-21.
By bringing in more attacking options like Arnaut Danjuma and, to an extent Ashley Young, Dyche has more options to work with which opens up some space for Calvert-Lewis.
A fixed Lewis, who can score some 10-15 goals in a season would be enough to vault Everton up into the top 10.
Top 3 English Premier League Futures Bets: Arsenal
The Gunners thought they were locks for the 22-23 Premier League title. Arsenal was at the top of the table into late April, but a string of eight games where they put up an embarrassingly low nine points from a possible 24 saw them lose that title to Manchester City.
This was the table in early April. Since then, Arsenal have picked up 9 points from a possible 24. City win it with three games to spare.
— Joel Rabinowitz (@joel_archie) May 20, 2023
Arsenal going at 1.3 points per game for the final quarter of the season.
How not to do a title run in. pic.twitter.com/ljYixwd0PJ
They come into the 23-24 season hungry for a title and to avenge that disastrous fall at the end of 22-23. But for some reason, the oddsmakers are only giving Arsenal a 33% chance to stay in the top two next year. What?
EPL Futures Bet 3: Arsenal In Top 2 (+200)
I don't get it. Mikel Arteta has strengthened his squad well. Granit Xhaka goes out, but in comes Kai Havertz to take his spot in the midfield. That's an upgrade for them in terms of moving the ball out of the midfield and into an attacking area. Oh, and he's soooo much better at creating goals.
| Granit Xhaka | Kai Havertz | |
|---|---|---|
| Expected Goals per 90 | 4.7 | 11.6 |
| Progressive Carries per 90 | 1.41 | 1.26 |
| Take-Ons Attempted per 90 | 0.84 | 2.11 |
And then you need to factor in the addition of Declan Rice to control the midfield and link up with the back four.
That was a position that Thomas Partey held last season. And while I love Partey and what he's done for the Gunners I'm now convinced it's a massive upgrade for Arsenal to have Rice there. (Sorry for doubting you, Collin).
| Thomas Partey | Declan Rice | |
|---|---|---|
| Progressive Carries per 90 | 1.23 | 2.42 |
| Key Passes per 90 | 0.94 | 1.02 |
| Dribblers tackled per Attempt | 48% | 62% |
| Passes + Shots Blocked per 90 | 0.94 | 1.24 |
I can't understand how Arsenal finishing in the top 2 is even debatable. This squad basically had its hands around the title a month before the end of the season just go better. There's no reason to think they can't finish in the top 2 again. At +200, I'm all in.
