International football returns to London as one of the title favorites England hosts Croatia in arguably the best fixture of Group D in Euro 2020. England (6-1-1 ATS) will start as heavy favorites considering this match will be played at Wembley Stadium in front of thousands of raucous home supporters.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The odds have moved significantly since the Sportsbook. England has moved from -113 at Sportsbook to -156 currently, indicative that sportsbooks further favor the home team to ease through. Croatia started off as +363 underdogs but has since moved to +500. One reason is because of Croatia’s starting trouble. It first drew to Armenia 1-1 before losing to Belgium 1-0 in the international friendlies that preceded this tournament. 

England News & Notes

Manager Gareth Southgate will be pleased with England’s lead-up to the main tournament. England beat Austria and Romania 1-0 at home in the friendlies. Even though neither of those teams possess some of the offensive firepower that is ubiquitously prevalent in the main competition, it will still be pleasing to have to spent 180 minutes on the pitch without conceding a goal. 

There will be a similar feel to this game as well, at least defensively because of Croatia’s slower pace of ball movement. John Stones, Kyle Walker and Luke Shaw will all likely start at the back. Harry Maguire has still not regained full fitness after his injury. Declan Rice will play a vital role in a defensive midfielder role. 

As England transitions through the phases, it will find a fairly discernible difference in experience, with the likes of Phil Foden and Mason Mount in the middle of the field. Harry Kane will undeniably start as the solitary striker. Depending on how Southgate sets up, he could deploy Marcus Rashford, Raheem Sterling, Jadon Sancho and Jack Grealish as he deems appropriate. A lack of quality options in the middle and final third will not be a problem for England and Southgate in this tournament. 

Croatia News & Notes

Croatia didn’t pick up too much momentum in its route to the main tournament. It was beaten by Belgium and also drew to Armenia. Ivan Perisic scored Croatia’s only goal in those friendlies. That won’t matter a whole lot but it does play a small part in the grander scheme of things. 

Dejan Lovren is doubtful with an injury, which means Domagoj Vida and Duje Caleta-Car will likely start at the back in this match. Croatia will need to find some creativity in the middle third to be able to break down England defensively because there is a personnel mismatch in this game. “They have an excellent team, a lot of top players, especially in attack. We will need to stop them and it won't be easy, especially at Wembley,” Zlatko Dalić said of England’s set-up. 

In order to generate chances, Croatia will rely on the experience of Luke Modric, Mateo Kovacic and Ivan Perisic. All of them play in slightly different roles but have pivotal parts to play in the lead-up to eventual chances created in the final third. Ante Rebic and Bruno Petkovic will battle for potentially just one spot as the team’s primary striker. Again, not a bad headache to have. 

Betting Pick 1: England -156

Just a simple breakdown of the matchups and the team that has an edge in the key factors. Personnel, England. Defensive solidity, England. Confidence and momentum, England to a degree. And very importantly, home-ground advantage, England. These factors are all edged out by the home side, which should help result in a tournament-Sportsbook win. 

Betting Pick 2: Total goals over 2.5 (-113)

Do Croatia have the prowess to score? Yes, certainly. The same can be said for England. The ball might not move too quickly across phases but there is efficiency at the top for both teams. At Wembley, England to score two goals is a fairly safe bet. Croatia should score one as well to take the total over.