Belgium (12-0-0, 9-3 ATS) will start as heavy favorites as they aim to ensure they finish at the top of Group B of Euro 2020 when they face a Finland team on Monday that are looking for an unlikely entry into the Round of 16 in their maiden appearance at the tournament.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The odds have changed quite a bit since Sportsbook for this fixture. This is a bit of an anomaly because Belgium’s odds have lengthened and so has Finland’s. That’s unusual for several reasons but there is a sense that both teams will not be entirely displeased with the draw, which is why those odds have shortened from +450 at Sportsbook to +430 currently.

Belgium, who started as -333 favorites, have now moved to -286 favorites while Finland’s odds have lengthened from +800 at Sportsbook to +1000 currently.

Finland News & Notes

Finland have a chance to qualify for the Round of 16. To be able to say that ahead of the final group-stage game would please Finland immensely. They have achieved that with a bit of luck and lots of hard work. They started with a 1-0 win against Denmark in an emotional match before losing by the same scoreline in the next game against Russia. A point to note is that this is Finland’s debut appearance in the European Championship so expect them to come out blazing with nothing to lose against a superior Belgium team.

"We're really looking forward to what is probably the most important game in Finnish football history. It's fantastic that we're at this stage with everything still in our own hands. We can even win the group. There is so much to play for,” Finland coach Markku Kanerva said.

Here are the scenarios for qualification for Finland. They will go through with a win against Belgium. This implausible outcome – as odds of +1000 indicate - could even send them joyously to the top of the group if Russia don’t win their game. More plausibly, Finland will be immensely satisfied with a point against Belgium that could potentially send them to the Round of 16 if Russia lose to Denmark. There aren’t too many injury concerns for Finland despite Jukka Raitala coming off in the previous match with a calf issue.

Belgium News & Notes

Belgium have had two contrasting wins so far at Euro 2020. They first cruised past Russia in their tournament opener but were made to work hard against Denmark after conceding an early goal. Then came one of the team goals of the tournament, beginning with Romelu Lukaku’s diligence to keep the ball and culminating with a typically-stunning goal from Kevin De Bruyne that put Belgium ahead for good. That win ensured that they will just need a solid performance against Finland to secure the top position in this group.

"It's prestigious to win the group, so that is something we are definitely going for. Sure, the next phase might be easier if you're not the group Sportsbook, but in football there can always be surprises. At the World Cup we seemed to have a tougher time against Japan than against Brazil. You can't try to calculate these things, you just always have to play to win,” Belgium goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois said.

Without being too disrespectful, Belgium would still want to play some of their stars into match fitness ahead of the Round of 16, such as Eden Hazard, Axel Witsel and Kevin De Bruyne. With respect, there are sterner tests ahead for Belgium than Finland, which they will certainly have an eye on.

However, don’t expect Roberto Martinez to take this match lightly, especially with some work still to be done to top the group. Timothy Castagne will play no further part at this tournament after his nasty collision in the match against Russia.

Betting Pick 1: Belgium -286

Topping the group will be at the forefront of Martinez and Belgium in this match. Even though there could be some experimentation with the lineups, it’s crucial to note that any inclusions Martinez makes will be based on the strength and balance of the team.

If this was the first match of the tournament, Belgium’s odds would be a lot shorter than -286. That is also an opportunity for bettors to capitalize on an opportunity to increase their payouts on a potentially straightforward victory for Belgium.

Betting Pick 2: Over 2.5 goals (-162)

Don’t expect Finland to sit back and wait for Belgium to come to them and take their chance on the counter-attack. This is an opportunity for Finland to take the aggressive route and end their tournament with some pride should they not advance to the Round of 16.

That will leave plenty of open areas on the pitch, which can also be a recipe for disaster against a quick-moving team like Belgium. Finland could score but Belgium should definitely score more than one.