Croatia has consistently outperformed expectations at major events. Will Euro 2020 be the same or will England exact revenge for its 2018 World Cup loss? We take a look at the markets as well as a detailed analysis of the teams for your Euro 2020 Group D betting.
At Sportsbook, England (-260) is a massive favorite in the Euro 2020 Group D betting markets, followed by Croatia (+333). Czech Republic (+1000) and Scotland (+1600) are next on the oddsboard to win Group D.
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Group D details
Teams participating: England, Croatia, Czech Republic, Scotland
Euro 2020 Qualifying Results
Apart from one game, England was thoroughly dominant through qualifying. It won seven of eight games to finish at the top of Group A with 21 points. Its only blemish in an otherwise flawless campaign, which included a 5-0 win, a 4-0 win and a 7-0 win, was a 2-1 defeat to Czech Republic.
Mixed results in qualifying, by Croatia’s lofty standards. Of eight games, Croatia won five, drew two and lost one. It won Group E quite comfortably nonetheless with a goal differential of +10.
Of Czech Republic’s five wins in qualifying, its 2-1 win against group winner England was the most influential. It finished second in Group A with 15 points. However, Czech Republic also lost three games.
Scotland was no match for the powerhouses of Group I (Belgium and Russia). It won five and lost five to finish third in the group with 15 points in eight games. Atypically, Scotland qualified to the playoffs despite having a goal differential of -3.
Euro 2020 Group D Betting Odds
Odds as of June 8 at Sportsbook
Euro 2020 Group D Odds Analysis
This isn’t quite a group of death but there are four solid teams in Group D. England (-260) leads the Group D betting odds, and rightly so, considering the depth and quality at manager Gareth Southgate’s disposal. There will also be crucial games at Wembley in front of home fans, if COVID-19 is kept under control.
Croatia (+333) has been one of the most underrated teams in European soccer for a while now. That’s starting to change as its performances gain consistency. However, finishing ahead of England will be Croatia’s hardest challenge in the group stage.
Czech Republic (+1000) and Scotland (+1600) are outside picks to qualify, let alone win this group. The odds are probably fair but don’t expect either of those teams to die wondering.
Euro 2020 Group D Betting Tips
With respect to Czech Republic and Scotland, your Euro 2020 Group D betting should be restricted to England and Croatia. England would be my pick to win this group on account of several factors, including home-ground advantage and a superior squad with unprecedented depth and experience at this level.
Croatia also has most of those factors but might not be able to match up on the same level as England, particularly on June 13 at Wembley Stadium as both these teams open their campaigns.
Unfortunately for Scotland, there are several lingering injury concerns. Ryan Jack was ruled out of this tournament with a persistent calf injury. Scotland forward Oli McBurnie broke his foot, which led to him being ruled out of the rest of Sheffield Shield’s season. Arsenal defender Kieran Tierney is also under an injury cloud with a knee issue. As a result, I’d stay away from Scotland despite tempting odds of +1600.
Based on the Euro 2020 Group D betting odds, England’s implied probability to win the group, according to Odds Shark’s calculator, is 72.22 percent.
Euro 2020 Group D Value Picks
From a purely numerical standpoint, odds of +333 for Croatia will be valuable in any group, including this. That’s because Croatia plays a methodical style of soccer, transitioning slowly but seamlessly across the phases of a soccer pitch. It’s highly likely that if Croatia defeats England at Wembley, it will take the group.
Even though I wouldn’t back Croatia to win this group, there is plenty of value to be derived from this selection provided certain results go its way. Croatia’s implied probability, according to its Euro 2020 Group D betting odds, is 23.09 percent.
A Detailed Analysis on England
Head coach: Gareth Southgate
Southgate took charge of England on November 30, 2016, with his contract set to run till 2022. In 48 games at the helm, he has helped England rack up an average of 2.13 points per match.
Quote from the manager: “Although predominantly a young group, (many England players) have now played in a Champions League final, quite a few were involved in the World Cup semifinal, a number of them are pushing for the title in England. They are the big-game experiences that they need and I think they are enjoying wearing an England shirt. They’re not seeing that as a burden.”
Player to watch: I’d pick Jadon Sancho as the player to watch because he has plied his trade for Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga, while his national colleagues are attuned to each other with the pace of English soccer. Still, there is enough skill and talent to suggest a stellar campaign.
Top scorer in qualifying: Harry Kane scored 12 goals in an utterly dominant qualifying campaign.
Euro 2016 result: England lost 2-1 to Iceland in the Round of 16, a subpar finish by England’s standards.
Best result in past Euro cups: England’s best performance at this tournament came back in 1968, where it finished third.
Fun fact: England was beaten by Croatia in the 2018 World Cup. England came back immediately to qualify for the inaugural UEFA Nations League Finals. That will provide a bit of spice to their game.
Predicted Finish in Group D: Our Euro 2020 Group D betting prediction for England is first.
A Detailed Analysis on Croatia
Head coach: Zlatko Dalić
Dalić has an impressive resume as national coach. Despite not having represented his country, he led Croatia to the 2018 World Cup final.
Quote from the manager: “It’s going to be the same as in the semifinals of the World Cup, as well as the Nations League. I’m looking forward to that game,” Dalić said on facing England. “They’re the favorites in our group and I’ve said before that they’re a team taking huge steps forward. They’re bringing football home.”
Player to watch: Luka Modric has been the central figure for Croatia in the last few years. He had a pivotal role to play in the World Cup and will continue to lead Croatia in the middle of the field.
Top scorer in qualifying: Bruno Petković scored four goals to lead Croatia in qualifying.
Euro 2016 result: Croatia was eliminated after a thrilling matchup against Portugal 1-0 after extra time in the Round of 16.
Best result in past Euro cups: Croatia made the quarters of this tournament in 1996 and 2008.
Fun fact: In a stunning display of improved soccer, Croatia climbed 122 places between 1994 and 1999, moving from 125th in the world to No. 3 in the FIFA rankings.
Predicted Finish in Group D: Our Euro 2020 Group D betting prediction for Croatia is second.
A Detailed Analysis on Czech Republic
Head coach: Jaroslav Šilhavý
Took over as national coach in September 2018. He also holds the record for most top-flight appearances in Czech soccer, with 465.
Quote from the manager: “Of course, England and Croatia were both semifinalists in the last World Cup. They are very strong teams, but despite this I think that we are going to prepare very well. We want to qualify from the group.”
Player to watch: Tomáš Souček has had a fantastic couple of years with West Ham United in the English Premier League. For periods of this season, he was also West Ham’s leading goalscorer.
Top scorer in qualifying: Patrik Schick scored four goals in qualifying to lead his team.
Euro 2016 result: Czech Republic didn’t make it past the group stage in the previous edition.
Best result in past Euro cups: Won the 1976 edition as Czechoslovakia.
Fun fact: Czech Republic’s game against Scotland will be the first in a major tournament, in either a Euro or FIFA World Cup.
Predicted Finish in Group D: Our Euro 2020 Group D betting prediction for Czech Republic is third.
A Detailed Analysis on Scotland
Head coach: Steve Clarke
Clarke took over as national coach in May 2018 after a stint at Kilmarnock back in the local league.
Quote from the manager: “I’m hugely disappointed for Ryan (Jack) as he deserved to be part of our squad for Euro 2020. His performances for Scotland have been excellent, not least in the playoff final against Serbia when I thought he was outstanding at the heart of our midfield.”
Player to watch: John McGinn was starting to find some form for Aston Villa back in the English Premier League. That will hold him in good stead as Scotland transitions into the final third.
Top scorer in qualifying: John McGinn led his team with seven goals.
Euro 2016 result: Did not qualify.
Best result in past Euro cups: Scotland exited the 1992 and 1996 editions at the group stage, its best result at this tournament.
Fun fact: Scotland and England participated in the first-ever international match, back on November 30, 1872, which ended 0-0.
Predicted Finish in Group D: Our Euro 2020 Group D betting prediction for Scotland is fourth.
Euro 2020 Group D Predictions
This will be quite a close group, at least compared to some others in this tournament. Wembley will be an influential factor in this group, as Southgate mentioned: “We know that anybody coming and playing us on our own turf is in for a difficult game. We’ve got to make that even more of an advantage than we have even in the past.” If the venue was outside England, it might have been a tougher choice.
Which teams will advance in Group D?
Czech Republic did upset England in qualifying but it also lost 5-0 in the other tie against the same opponent. While there will be sporadic bursts of brilliance, there just isn’t enough consistency to sustain excellence over a period of time. Even though it will be a tight finish, it’s hard to see Czech Republic scoring enough goals to stay relevant in the fight for the top two.
Scotland is a bit further off as Euro 2020 Group D odds of +1600 suggest. It is a well-drilled team, capable of scoring a few goals. However, there are too many questions about the solidity of its defense. It conceded 19 goals in 10 games in qualifying at a startling average of close to two per game. That includes two wins against San Marino, 6-0 and 2-0. Against some of the best teams in Europe, that is just not good enough. Scotland may sneak in an unexpected draw but more than that is simply implausible at this stage.
Our Euro 2020 Group D betting predictions are as follows: England to sneak past Croatia to finish first, Croatia then to finish second, Czech Republic having to settle for third after being beaten by superior teams and Scotland to finish fourth.