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Euro 2020 Group F Odds: Who Will Win the ‘Group of Death’?

The group of death includes World Cup winners in France and Germany along with Euro 2016 champion Portugal. One of these powerhouses will be eliminated by the end of the group stage. Which team will that be? Here is a look at the markets as well as a detailed analysis for your Euro 2020 Group F betting.

At BetOnline, France and Germany are the most likely teams to lead this group with odds of +140 in the Euro 2020 Group F betting odds market, followed by Portugal (+325). Hungary (+3300) is a massive underdog to win this group.

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Group F details

Teams participating: France, Germany, Portugal, Hungary

Euro 2020 Qualifying Results

France
Eight wins, one draw and one loss was enough for France to lead Group H in qualifying. Both games in which it dropped points were to Turkey, a 1-1 draw and a 2-0 defeat. France ended qualifying with a goal differential of +19, having scored 25 and conceded six goals.

Germany
Germany had enough strength to stave off Netherlands to finish at the top of Group C. It finished with 21 points in eight games. Its only loss in the qualifying campaign was to Netherlands 4-2.

Portugal
Portugal finished second in Group B, behind Ukraine. It won five, drew two and lost one game to finish with 17 points. Portugal had the best goal differential in the group with +16.

Hungary
With four wins and four losses in eight games, Hungary finished fourth in Group E, behind Croatia, Wales and Slovakia. Had to progress to the main stage via the playoffs.

Euro 2020 Group F Betting Odds

NationOdds
France+140
Germany+140
Portugal+325
Hungary+3300

Odds as of June 8 at BetOnline

Euro 2020 Group F Odds Analysis

This is undeniably the group of death in this year’s Euro tournament. The winner of FIFA World Cup 2018 (France), the winner of the preceding FIFA World Cup in 2014 (Germany) and the 2016 Euro winner (Portugal) will vie for just two spots in order to qualify.

For now, France (+140) starts off as one of the two clubs most likely to qualify. It will have a powerful offensive core to rely on, just as it has right through the last few years in international soccer.

Germany (+140) didn’t have too many troubles in easing to the top of its group in qualifying. Even though there are two other teams challenging for that same position in the main event, Germany will be hard to get past.

Portugal (+325) will need more than Cristiano Ronaldo to take them past France and Germany. It will have to be an all-around combination, particularly defensively to stave off two strong offensive units. Of the three, that’s why Portugal is the least favored to qualify.

Hungary (+3300) will be a crucial opponent in this group because of the possibility of goal differential deciding this group.

Euro 2020 Group F Betting Tips

Choosing between three major tournament winners will be hard. Here’s an analytical stab at that.

The most important factor might be personnel. Assuming all teams stay healthy through this group stage, you will see that Germany probably has the deepest and most skilled squad. France will be desperate to continue its solid record against Germany under Didier Deschamps, which includes three wins, two draws and two losses. However, that vital game will be played at Allianz Arena in Munich, which means home-ground advantage for Germany.

Based on the Euro 2020 Group F betting odds, France and Germany’s implied probabilities to win the group, according to Odds Shark’s calculator, are 41.67 percent. Subtle factors will decide this group. Germany has a slight edge in several of these factors.

Euro 2020 Group F Value Picks

If you’re looking to derive value for your Euro 2020 Group F betting, Portugal is not a bad choice at all. Its current odds of +325 are fairly high considering it is the reigning champion of this tournament after beating France in the final. Portugal will continue to rely heavily on Ronaldo in the final third but it does possess plenty of talent in the middle of the pitch, including Bernardo Silva and Joao Felix.

Coach Fernando Santos summed up the value Portugal brings in this group: “If we look at it and say would Portugal choose France and Germany to be in its group, the answer is no. But if you asked France and Germany, they would not choose to be in a group with us either.” Portugal’s implied probability, according to its Euro 2020 Group F betting odds, is 23.53 percent.

A Detailed Analysis on France

Coaching

Head coach: Didier Deschamps

Deschamps has an impressive history in the national setup. Firstly, he led France to glory at the 1998 FIFA World Cup as well as the Euro tournament in 2000 as a player. Then, he carried France to the 2018 FIFA World Cup title as coach. Can he complete soccer’s double-double?

Quote from the manager: “It’s a difficult group but I think Joachim Löw and Fernando Santos think the same thing. This is the toughest group but we have to accept it. It’s complicated by the quality of these two adversaries and their results on the European and world levels.”

Player to watch: Antoine Griezmann will be a key player for France. He is coming into this tournament on the back of some good national form, which includes three goals and seven assists in qualifying.

Top scorer in qualifying: Olivier Giroud scored six goals to lead his team in qualifying.

Euro 2016 result: France lost to Portugal 1-0 after extra time in the final of the previous edition.   

Best result in past Euro cups: France won this tournament in 1984 and 2000.

Fun fact: If it wins this competition, France can become the first country to hold the world and European titles at the same time twice.

Predicted Finish in Group F: Our Euro 2020 Group F betting prediction for France is second.

A Detailed Analysis on Germany

Coaching

Head coach: Joachim Löw

One of the most experienced coaches in the national circuit currently, Löw took Germany to the title in the 2014 FIFA World Cup. He has been with Germany as national coach since 2006.

Quote from the manager: “We will see how we can handle the pressure. We have a little advantage in that we are playing at home. On the other hand, France and Portugal have lots of experienced players and it is not always decisive whether we play home or away. It’s a tournament where a lot can happen.”

Player to watch: Kai Havertz slowly found rhythm and momentum with Chelsea. That makes him a lethal option in the middle of the field for Germany.  

Top scorer in qualifying: Serge Gnabry scored eight goals to lead Germany in qualifying.

Euro 2016 result: Germany lost 2-0 to France in the semifinals of the previous tournament.  

Best result in past Euro cups: Germany has won three Euro titles, in 1972, 1980 and 1996.

Fun fact: This will be Germany’s first meeting with France in the group stage of the Euro or the World Cup.  

Predicted Finish in Group F: Our Euro 2020 Group F betting prediction for Germany is first.

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A Detailed Analysis on Portugal

Coaching

Head coach: Fernando Santos

After a short tenure at Greece, Santos took over as national coach in 2014. He helped Portugal won this tournament last time around.

Quote from the manager: “There aren’t many national teams who have won a Euro, and regarding the Nations League, obviously it was the first time, so Portugal will forever be part of history having been the first to win that competition. Portugal at the moment are considered to be one of the best national teams in Europe. Every time there’s a draw, there’s always teams that you don’t want to face, and I think that Portugal are in that batch at the moment.”

Player to watch: Just for the sake of variety, we’ll move away from Cristiano Ronaldo. Bernardo Silva was in sparkling touch for Manchester City in the English Premier League and will be an important cog for Portugal in the middle of the field.    

Top scorer in qualifying: Cristiano Ronaldo scored 11 goals in qualifying to lead his team.

Euro 2016 result: Portugal won this tournament in 2016.

Best result in past Euro cups: That win in 2016 was also its best result to date.

Fun fact: Portugal lost to Ukraine in qualifying. That was its first and only loss in a European game, including qualification and the main event, under current manager Santos.  

Predicted Finish in Group F: Our Euro 2020 Group F betting prediction for Portugal is third.

A Detailed Analysis on Hungary

Coaching

Head coach: Marco Rossi

Took charge of Hungary in 2018. He had coached for four years in the Hungarian league prior to that. In November 2020, Rossi tested positive for COVID-19.

Quote from the manager: “Of course, even though we will clash with some of the best teams in the world, there are still unacceptable results. At the Euro, the most important thing would be bravery, and no fear of the opponents. On paper, we don’t stand a chance but in football anything can happen.”

Player to watch: Willi Orban will be the key player in the final third for Hungary. Unlikely to receive too many chances in that phase in this group, Hungary will need to take any chance it gets.

Top scorer in qualifying: Willi Orban scored three goals in qualifying to lead Hungary.

Euro 2016 result: Hungary lost 4-0 to Belgium in the Round of 16 in the previous edition.

Best result in past Euro cups: Back in 1964, Hungary finished third, its best result in this competition.  

Fun fact: Hungary made a fast start in this competition. It made the semifinals in 1964 and 1972. The next time Hungary made the final event was in 2016.

Predicted Finish in Group F: Our Euro 2020 Group F betting prediction for Hungary is fourth.

Euro 2020 Group F Predictions

Hungary to finish fourth. Of that, there isn’t much disagreement.

Germany, in its current form, with the depth of players in its squad, will be too hard to stop, particularly with a few games in Germany. Low will also be desperate for some glory on the international scene. I’d even back Germany to go all the way to the final in this competition. For the Euro 2020 Group F betting pick, I would go slightly against the trend and stake most of my investment on Germany to win this group.

Which teams will advance?

France will be the other team. Here’s why. France’s defensive strength is unmatched in this group. Even Germany prefers a high-press, quick-moving style of soccer that could leave it open defensively on the counterattack. While Portugal doesn’t transition as quickly, it might not have the strength to breach that France defense (apart from the skill of Ronaldo, of course). Defense often wins tournaments like these, as France is quite familiar with. Portugal will have one bad evening in this competition, either against France or Germany, and that will cost it the chance of qualification.

Our Euro 2020 Group F betting prediction is as follows: Germany to finish first, France a close second, Portugal an even closer third and Hungary will be a distant fourth, eliminated from contention at the earliest possible juncture.