The most-awaited Euro 2020 group opens play on Tuesday as Hungary hosts defending champions Portugal in Budapest in a Group F fixture. Portugal (5-2-1, 3-4-1 ATS) opened as favorites, a tag that now holds more weight after the odds have shifted even more in their favor after a strong lead-up to the tournament.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The odds for this match have turned significantly since Sportsbook. So much so that Portugal, who started as -150 favorites, have now moved to -215 favorites. Hungary’s odds have moved from +400 at Sportsbook to +741. The draw also has been impacted by the movement. After Sportsbook at +280, the draw’s price is now +347.

Hungary News & Notes

Let’s start with the positive results in the friendlies because Hungary are not expected to have too much success at the main tournament considering the group they find themselves in. Hungary beat Cyprus 1-0 before a goalless draw to Ireland on June 8. Impressively, Hungary did not concede in 180 minutes on the pitch, a characteristic that could change as quickly as the first half on Tuesday.

Coach Marco Rossi has created an environment that has allowed Hungary’s players to excel and dream. Hungary are now unbeaten in their last 11 games, including the 2022 World Cup qualification phase.

"We will do everything to push ourselves to the limit. We know who we’re up against. We will keep our feet on the ground, but of course we want to achieve our dreams. Dreaming is free, so we dream. Our dream remains between us, of course. We talk about it and want to live that dream,” Rossi said.

Hungary will miss the services of Dominik Szoboszlai and Zsolt Kalmar after they were ruled out due to injury. Szoboszlai, in particular, will be a huge miss for Hungary in the final third because there is potential for space to open up on the counter-attack in this group. Willi Orban and captain Adam Szalai will be crucial defensively for Hungary, in order to stay compact against some of the best players in the world.

Portugal News & Notes

Portugal drew 0-0 to Spain before thrashing Israel 4-0 on June 10 in the international friendlies leading up to the main stage of the Euro tournament. This form for the defending champions has ensured that odds have moved drastically in their favor.

Joao Cancelo has tested positive for COVID-19, and will not participate in this fixture. He scored the last goal in that 4-0 win against Israel. Despite his absence, Portugal will have some of the best players in the world available for selection for this clash.

Cristiano Ronaldo will continue to hold his preferred striking position in the middle of the pitch along with Diogo Jota and Bernardo Silva on either flank in a more attacking role. Manchester United midfielder Bruno Fernando will be the playmaker in the midfield. Danilo is also expected to start, albeit in a more defensive capacity.

Ruben Dias, Pepe, Raphael Guerreiro and Nelson Semedo could start at the back with Cancelo absent, with Rui Patricio in goal. Despite Portugal’s apparent strength across the board, there might not be too many chances for a relatively easier clean sheet as this tournament progresses, which will make this defensive line desperate to avoid conceding against Hungary.

Betting Pick 1: Portugal -215

There is just no room for complacency in the group of death. Hungary does have home-ground advantage and nothing to lose as factors on their side, but Portugal have a much larger personnel mismatch, which will eventually be the most influential factor in this match. Portugal will be aware that if they don’t win here, they might not make it past the group stage. Expect a fast start and a comfortable win.

Betting Pick 2: UNDER 2.5 goals (-125)

The UNDER is starting to become highly favorable in this competition. That was understandable and predictable, considering teams will want to first ensure defensive stability before transitioning forward with more impetus. Portugal appear far too strong for Hungary in this match, and should not concede. I’m going for a 2-0 victory to Portugal here.