Italy bring an incredible run of form into their second group game of Euro 2020, against Switzerland in Rome on Wednesday. As a result, Italy (11-0-0 SU, 10-1 ATS) will begin as fairly big favorites to ensure qualification into the Round of 16 by the end of Wednesday.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Italy’s odds have shortened, which means a lesser payout if you place a winning bet on them now (-175) as opposed to when the odds opened (-125). The draw’s odds have lengthened fairly considerably, which is surprising. The draw opened at +240 and the market’s price is now +314. The biggest change has come for Switzerland, who opened as +375 underdogs and are now +579 underdogs to upset Italy in front of their home crowd.

Italy News & Notes

Italy registered their ninth straight win as they eased past Turkey 3-0 on Sportsbook night in Rome. An own goal followed by goals for Ciro Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne ensured an ideal start for Italy in their bid to outperform standard expectations.

Italy will now be keen to ensure a clean path en route to the Round of 16. If they can use home-ground advantage, fantastic recent form and their superior depth of personnel against Switzerland on Wednesday, they will become the first team to book a spot in the next stage of Euro 2020. The mood is good in the Italian camp, as evident from Roberto Mancini’s statements ahead of this match.

“We had a good game against Turkey,” Mancini said. “It was important to start well in Rome, and I think it is a satisfaction for everyone who is with us: for the fans and all Italians. It was a beautiful evening, so I hope there are many others like it. There is still a long way to go; we have to play six more games like this, starting with the one against Switzerland.”

There aren’t too many injury issues for Mancini. Alessandro Florenzi has a calf injury, while Marco Verratti might soon be on Mancini’s radar to return to the starting XI. That means that Italy will likely continue to stick with their successful combination that beat Turkey, including Immobile, Berardi and Insigne in the final third.

Switzerland News & Notes

Switzerland will not be too pleased with conceding a late goal to Wales. Such goals can often be the difference between qualification and missing out on goal differential. Breel Embolo broke away masterfully for a shot on target, which earned Switzerland a corner. Embolo scored from the resulting corner from an unmarked header. However, Wales still came away with a vital point after a 1-1 draw in Baku.

“We certainly created many chances,” coach Vladimir Petkovic said. “We perhaps should have finished off one or two of them. It’s disappointing, but we’re not too displeased with our performance. Against Italy it will be a very different match.”

It will indeed be a different match with a completely new outlook. If Switzerland can upset Italy, it should be enough for qualification. But if you’re looking at this match from a practical vantagepoint, you will find that a draw might be the best that Switzerland can hope for considering the personnel mismatch. That could also be a crucial point going into that final matchday against Turkey.

This approach to the match will impact your betting decisions because if Switzerland are happy with a point, then they will hold a deeper defensive line and park the metaphorical bus. However, Italy’s creativity might still be good enough to find a gap and score. In actuality, this might be a more open match than expected, with several chances for both teams on the counter-attack.

Betting Pick 1: Italy -175

Italy showed glimpses of some fantastic football on Sportsbook night, a characteristic that is in line with Mancini’s style. They will want to first ensure they are compact defensively before transitioning but in either case, Italy’s offensive firepower might be too strong for a team that might be a bit nervous in the final third. In Rome, Italy will be hard to dislodge on either end of the pitch.

Betting Pick 2: OVER 2.5 goals (+120)

You will see Mancini desperate to ensure they don’t play with their food ahead of the final matchday. A win against Switzerland will guarantee qualification into the Round of 16, which will undeniably be the aim on Wednesday. Italy possess adequate firepower in the final third, particularly with Immobile in form. Switzerland might have to chase the game if they score early, which will result in a more open game that forces the total OVER 2.5 goals.