The group of death in Euro 2020 concludes with a stellar contest between defending champions Portugal and reigning World Cup Sportsbooks France in Budapest on Wednesday. France (9-2-1, 6-5-1 ATS) will begin as slight favorites to beat Portugal and confirm qualification into the Round of 16.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The odds for either of the teams to win have lengthened while the odds for the draw have shortened. Both of these teams are coming into this game on the back of disappointing results in the second matchday, which would have had an impact on this odds movement. Portugal started at odds of +240 but have now moved to +294, making that the unlikeliest result. France began as +120 favorites and are now +136 to beat Portugal. The draw’s price opened at +220 and has since shortened to +194.

Portugal News & Notes

Portugal will need a result to advance. This is the group of death, after all. Apart from 10 minutes of dominance toward the end of the match against Hungary, Portugal have been a bit off their best at Euro 2020. They eventually beat Hungary 3-0 but were blown away in their last match against a superior offensive team in Germany 4-2.

That result left Portugal with plenty of work to do to ensure qualification into the Round of 16 after Wednesday’s matches. A win will put them directly through, a draw might be enough, but a loss could end their run of seven consecutive appearances in the second stage of the main tournament at the European Championship. They will continue to rely on the services of Cristiano Ronaldo, who added to his brace from the match against Hungary with a goal and an assist against Germany.

“We will have to look at (the footage of the 4-2 defeat against Germany) and now what we have to do is clear our heads as we have a very important game against France,” Portugal coach Fernando Santos said after the defeat.

Joao Felix’s hamstring and Nuno Mendes’ thigh injury will continue to keep them out of this match. Santos might not want to tweak too much but will also look for some additional points of difference from the bench. Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, Diogo Jota and Ronaldo will continue to form the core of Portugal’s attack in the final third. This becomes crucial because a goal against this France team will go a long way in putting Portugal in an advantageous position to advance into the Round of 16.

France News & Notes

France started Euro 2020 with a quality 1-0 win against a lackluster Germany team. That was a typical France performance: solid at the back, transitioning slowly, scoring a vital goal and then keeping the possession in the middle third. All of those strong traits went out the window against Hungary as they were just not able to break them down defensively easily.

France eventually came back to secure a 1-1 draw, which was vital because it pushed them to the top of the table. It also ensured that a draw against Portugal should be enough to advance should the plausible scenario pan out in the other match between Hungary and Germany. Still, France will want to return to their defensive best against Portugal and make a clean break from the group of death.

“The match is like a final, but I think we have to treat it like the two matches we’ve already played,” forward Antoine Griezmann said. “We know we have to get a result to progress; a win would be best. We know it’s going to be a tough game, but I think we’re ready. We’ll have to prepare well and see tactically how we can make it as difficult as possible for them. The stadium will be full again and I’m happy to be able to play with that atmosphere.”

France don’t have too many injury concerns but coach Didier Deschamps might still move his players around in order to find the best balance and matchup for this Portugal team. That may mean Lucas Digne, who started against Hungary, will return to the bench. It will also be interesting to see if Benjamin Pavard, who was cleared for the previous match despite a head injury in the tournament opener, will make the starting XI here.

Betting Pick 1: Draw +194

A draw is the second-most likely result in this fixture but it’s a compelling option because the strengths of these teams are so similar. France and Portugal both prefer staying compact at the back and then transitioning methodically from the middle to the final third. Most sportsbooks expect this to be a high-intensity contest but this could be a defensive battle with each goal possibly impacting the future of both these powerhouses at Euro 2020.

Betting Pick 2: UNDER 2.5 goals (-162)

The odds being so favorable for the UNDER isn’t surprising. These are teams that can be incredibly hard to beat at the back and there is evidence of that over the last few years at major international tournaments, apart from Portugal’s defensive breakdown in the last match. If this match isn’t a draw, it could likely be decided by one goal.