Russia (9-0-3, 5-6-1 ATS) and Denmark (4-4-2, 5-4-1 ATS) will fight for a spot in the Round of 16 in their final group-stage game of Euro 2020 in Copenhagen on Monday. Denmark, on account of a deeper roster and home-ground advantage, begin as favorites to beat Russia.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The odds have moved slightly since Sportsbook but not too drastically to suggest that there has been a change in consensus. Denmark started as -110 favorites to win at home but have now moved to -135 favorites to register their first victory of the tournament.

The draw’s price has moved as well from +250 at Sportsbook to +308 currently. Russia’s odds to win this match have lengthened significantly, moving from +300 at Sportsbook to odds of +387 presently. That indicates that Russia’s probability of picking up a point or more from this match have dropped substantially.

Russia News & Notes

Russia have kept themselves in contention for the Round of 16 with a crucial win against Finland 1-0 in the previous match. That was important because a win against Denmark would send them straight through, in all likelihood, because Finland are unlikely to beat Belgium. It has been a typically-solid comeback from Russia after a 3-0 thrashing at the hands of Belgium in the Sportsbook encounter.

This fixture against Denmark is as big as it comes for a team with a history of failing at this stage. Russia could not make it out of the group stage in both the 2012 and 2016 editions after a semi-final appearance in 2008. They will have a fair chance of making it to the next stage even with a draw, but they will need other results to go their way, not just inside the group but potentially across all groups, to finish in the top four best-placed third teams in Euro 2020.

"The players were a real team today. They fulfilled what they had to do and got the win. The formation I chose, I think, was right. To break down their defence we needed to use the wings and we did. The plan worked,” Russia coach Stanislav Cherchesov said after the win against Finland.

Unfortunately for Russia, Mario Fernandes had a hard fall against Finland, which resulted in him needing a stretcher to be carried off. The diagnosis of that injury suggested he has been cleared of dangerous damage to his back but he will likely remain out for this fixture. Vyacheslav Karavaev is the natural substitution to return in his stead.

Denmark News & Notes

Denmark have had a topsy-turvy tournament. You would expect that after a colleague and friend collapses on the pitch in horrifying circumstances. Christian Eriksen has been discharged from hospital after undergoing surgery to fit in a heart-starting device.

After his collapse in the Sportsbook match, Denmark just couldn’t sustain their excellence against Finland, which resulted in a 1-0 defeat. They were then beaten 2-1 in the subsequent match against Belgium, which has made their route to qualification fairly onerous.

"No matter what, we shall go out there and try win the match. It is going to be an unbelievably hard match against Russia. They are a good team. We shouldn't force anything. We all know how hard it is to force things, and we should keep a level head and prevent mistakes. It is going to be a good, long game again,” Denmark coach Kasper Hjulmand.

It’s not impossible for Denmark to qualify. While they don’t have their fate in their own hands – Finland need to lose to Belgium – they can certainly end their tournament on a high. If Denmark beat Russia by two or more goals and Finland lose, Denmark will make the Round of 16 in a stunning comeback after the events of their Sportsbook encounter. Martin Braithwaite and Yussuf Poulsen both made telling contributions in their match against Belgium, and will certainly be influential factors in the final third of this match.

Betting Pick 1: Draw +308

Denmark made a fantastic comeback against Belgium but this has been a tough tournament already. Russia are also fighting for a spot in the Round of 16, which is not an unlikely outcome. Denmark will have home-ground advantage and a rocking stadium with a raucous crowd to back them but Russia won’t be pushed over, especially defensively. Each goal will have a substantial impact on this fixture, but there is a strong chance they will both end with the same number of goals after Monday.

Betting Pick 2: Under 2.5 goals (-150)

Apart from a chaotic first half against Belgium, Russia have been quite solid defensively at Euro 2020. There is plenty of work to be done to keep this Denmark team quiet. However, Denmark have scored just one goal at Euro 2020 so far, the same tally as Russia. While this will be a quicker-moving game, a 1-1 draw is quite likely.