After a spate of positive coronavirus tests, the narrative for Spain will finally return to the soccer pitch as it hosts Sweden at the Estadio Olimpico de Sevilla on June 14 in their first match of Group E. Spain (8-2-0, 3-7 ATS) will begin as huge favorites to cruise past Sweden. 

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Spain’s status as a massive favorite in this match hasn’t changed much. It started as -270 favorites, which has now moved only slightly to -275. The odds for the draw market have also remained more or less around Sportsbook. Spain against Sweden to be a draw opened at +391 and is now +375. Sweden’s current odds are +850 after Sportsbook as +853 underdogs. 

Spain News & Notes

Spain has been steady in the international friendlies in the last fortnight. It played two matches and won one of them. Spain first drew 0-0 to Portugal before thrashing Lithuania 4-0 on June 9. Spain played primarily with an Under-21 side against Lithuania because the first team was forced to isolate after a positive coronavirus test for Sergio Busquets. 

Busquets will be unavailable for this match after testing positive for Covid-19. Diego Llorente had also tested positive but has since returned negative results twice, which means he isn’t far from returning to the status of available for selection. Match fitness could be a potential problem considering there was a period of quarantine when the team should have been warming up on the pitch. 

There are still plenty of options for coach Luis Enrique. The midfield will likely be packed with Rodri, Thiago Alcantara, Ferran Torres and Koke. There are questions around whether Spain has enough defensive solidity against some of the better teams at Euro 2020. 

This match will be a nice way to answer those questions considering Sweden may not have the depth of offense to trouble the likes of Aymeric Laporte, Eric Garcia and Pau Torres. At the front, Alvaro Morata will partner Gerard Moreno, who is coming off a stellar season for Villareal in the La Liga. 

Sweden News & Notes

Sweden played three matches in the lead-up to this tournament. Sweden first beat Estonia 1-0 before also defeating Finland 2-0. It then beat Armenia 3-1 on June 6 to complete a stellar friendly run for Euro 2020. This momentum and confidence will be a requisite in order to compete against a team like Spain, particularly in the final third of the pitch, where there could be a discernible difference in quality. 

Sweden has a few noteworthy names that will be relied on, such as Manchester United defender Victor Lindelof, midfielder Sebastien Larsson, Emil Forsberg and Alexander Isak, who had a fantastic season for Real Sociedad. Unfortunately for Sweden, Dejan Kulusevski and Mattias Svanberg will not be available for selection in this match after also testing positive for Covid-19. 

Sweden’s best chance in this match might be that it has no chance, in the eyes of sportsbooks and traders across the world. "Playing Spain away is one of the toughest challenges in the world of football today. We have threatened them in the past. We know that if we can get everything to click, we absolutely have a chance on Monday,” Sweden coach Janne Andersson said. 

Betting Pick 1: Spain -275

Despite some disarray in the Spain camp with positive tests for Covid-19, there is just too much quality right through that line-up. Spain will recover quickly, start solidly at the back and maintain that compact defensive line, disallowing Sweden from generating too many chances. If you feel like a bit of a risk, you could even opt for the correct score market, which I think will pay out for a 2-0 win to Spain. 

Betting Pick 2: Under 2.5 goals (-125)

Spain is not a team that transitions quickly across phases of a soccer pitch. It also does not prefer a high-press style of play. Sweden is unlikely to break down that Spain defense easily, and is even more unlikely to receive too many chances on the counter-attack. Spain will score and keep a high line defensively to prevent too many defensive gaps.