Sweden (7-4-1, 9-3 ATS) and Poland (8-2-2, 8-4 ATS) will be aiming to ease their respective routes into the Round of 16 by simply winning their final group-stage match in a crucial encounter in St. Petersburg on Wednesday. Poland start as very slight favorites in the Euro 2020 odds to achieve that.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The odds haven’t moved too much for this all-important fixture. Sweden started at odds of +170 to beat Poland. Those odds have now lengthened slightly up to +192. The draw’s odds have also lengthened, moving from +220 at Sportsbook to +250. Poland retain the tag as favorites for this match as their odds to win have moved from +162 at Sportsbook to +150, just a slight shortening of their odds.

Sweden News & Notes

Sweden haven’t conceded a goal yet at Euro 2020. In soccer, defense almost always is the most influential factor in teams winning tournaments. Sweden won’t win Euro 2020 but that same characteristic has put them in a fantastic position to qualify for the Round of 16. They first held Spain to a goalless draw, which was their most important result because it also kept the other group contenders at bay.

Sweden then beat Slovakia 1-0 in their last match. That result has eased Sweden’s burden for their final group-stage match against Poland because a draw will be enough to send them through to the Round of 16. However, should they lose and Spain draw their final match, which is a highly unlikely outcome, then Sweden might have to rely on other favorable results. If Sweden do qualify, it will be their first appearance in the knockout stages of the European Championship in 17 years.

“We want to win the group; it would give us more rest ahead of the next match,” Sweden coach Janne Andersson said. “We’re up against a physically strong, highly motivated Poland side. They run a lot, they tackle and battle – not unlike ourselves. They also have Robert Lewandowski up front. We need to handle their initial pressing better than we did against Spain, to give us spaces to exploit.”

Dejan Kulusevski and Mattias Svanberg have been cleared to return to the starting XI after isolating following COVID-19 symptoms. Robin Quaison could remain on the bench with the experience of Marcus Berg preferred in a vital match.

Poland News & Notes

Poland’s route to the Round of 16 is a lot more circuitous than Sweden’s. However, they made up a lot of ground with a 1-1 draw in their last match against group favorites Spain. Robert Lewandowski headed in the equalizer to become the first Poland player to score in three different editions of the European Championship. Poland will be ruing missed chances in their Sportsbook encounter, which ended in a 2-1 loss to Slovakia.

There are several permutations and combinations for Poland. Most importantly, they have their fate in their own hands because a win against Sweden should be enough to send them through. If the other match between Spain and Slovakia ends in a draw and Poland win, they could even top the group. Their route gets trickier if they fail to win against Sweden because it’s highly likely that Spain will find their first win of the tournament in their encounter against Slovakia.

“Sweden are very tough opponents, but from a personal point of view, the last game with them I remember and played in was at Under-18 level, where we prevailed 1-0,” Poland defender Tymoteusz Puchacz said. “I hope to get the same result on Wednesday. We must be brave against Sweden. What I liked against Spain was our aggression.”

Grzegorz Krychowiak will return to the starting XI after serving his suspension for a red card in the first match. That could mean Jakub Moder misses out because Poland will want the experience of Mateusz Klich in the middle third. As has been the case right through, Lewandowski will be the most influential player in the final third in this match. He will be buoyed after scoring a record 67th goal in his 121st international appearance, which kept Poland in this competition.

Betting Pick 1: Poland +150

Poland will take away plenty of confidence and momentum from their draw against Spain. So much so that they will feel they have another chance with nothing to lose after a surprise loss to Slovakia in the opener. Poland also have the deeper bench and one of the best strikers in the world. Sweden will compete but Poland to win is a strong likelihood, particularly with a boost in their morale after Lewandowski’s goal against Spain.

Betting Pick 2: OVER 2.5 goals (+120)

This will be an open match. Both teams will stay aggressive because that’s their method of operation. They will not want to leave their fate to other teams with a draw as a result of a lack of aggression and periods of inactivity on the pitch. The odds are also excellent considering Sweden haven’t conceded yet but it is relatively likely that will change against a strong Poland offense.