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Hamilton Favored to Win Monaco Grand Prix

Lewis Hamilton is the betting favorite to win the Monaco Grand Prix.

Lewis Hamilton is quickly running away with the season. Max Verstappen will have to find a way to stop him at one of the most difficult racing tracks on the calendar in Monaco. We break down the betting markets and the F1 odds for the Monaco Grand Prix.

At BetOnline Sportsbook, the F1 odds heavily favor Hamilton (+100) again to win at Monaco. Next on the oddsboard are Verstappen (+140), Valtteri Bottas (+650), Sergio Perez (+1100) and Charles Leclerc (+2500).

Want a reliable betting guide on F1 betting? Take a look at Odds Shark’s dedicated F1 page.

Odds to Win the Monaco Grand Prix

2021 Monaco Grand Prix Odds
Lewis Hamilton+100
Max Verstappen+140
Valtteri Bottas+650
Sergio Perez+1100
Charles Leclerc+2500
Carlos Sainz+5000
Daniel Ricciardo+5000
Lando Norris+5000
Pierre Gasly+10000
Fernando Alonso+25000
Esteban Ocon+25000
Lance Stroll+50000
Yuki Tsunoda+75000
Sebastian Vettel+75000
Antonio Giovinazzi+200000
Kimi Raikkonen+200000
George Russell+200000
Nicholas Latifi+300000
Nikita Mazepin+400000
Mick Schumacher+400000

Odds as of May 14 at BetOnline Sportsbook

Previous race

Lewis Hamilton won another spectacular race in Barcelona, using a shrewd two-pit strategy that eventually ensured Max Verstappen just didn’t have the speed to maintain a lead. Hamilton started at P1 after securing his 100th pole position in Formula 1. Verstappen overtook him to move into the lead in the first turn. As the race progressed, Verstappen’s tires simply wore down while Hamilton continued to make up over one second per lap in the latter half of the race to retake the lead with six laps to go.

It was yet another masterful driving performance backed by a terrific strategy from the engineers and management of Mercedes. Verstappen pitted late in the race to push for the fastest lap, which he successfully achieved. Valtteri Bottas claimed third spot to round up the podium spots.

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Hamilton Continues to Lead the F1 Odds

At the end of the Barcelona Grand Prix, Hamilton (+100) said in a post-race interview with Jenson Button that he knew from past experience that a one-pit strategy just wouldn’t work. Hamilton has been here before and has done it so successfully. Of his experience, there isn’t much doubt.

“It had been the plan all weekend for us to make sure we had two mediums to be able to do a two-stop,” Hamilton said. “Even though a one-stop potentially looked better, I know from experience here that a one-stop is very, very hard to pull off.”

Armed with vital data, Mercedes pulled off the two-pit strategy without hassle, including a flawless second pit stop. Still, Hamilton had to make up the duration of that stop (about 25-26 seconds) on race leader Verstappen. He did that with some nerveless, spectacularly belligerent driving. Of his skill, there isn’t much doubt either.

Monaco will certainly test the drivers’ skill and experience because of the nature of the circuit. Defending a lead becomes of paramount importance. To be able to do that in a Mercedes car makes that job slightly easier. Hamilton’s implied probability to win this race, according to the Odds Shark calculator, is at 50 percent.

There are a few factors for you to consider but whether Hamilton will win this race might just come down to qualifying and that crucial pole position. If Verstappen can’t take that off him, this could be another Hamilton masterclass.

Left-Field Predictions for Monaco Grand Prix

Verstappen (+140) has been utilizing blistering speed across multiple races this season, but the sticking quote from Barcelona was calling himself and Red Bull “a sitting duck” to Hamilton and Mercedes. He will certainly be able to challenge Hamilton but a pole position is probably his best chance to level the playing field a bit. Verstappen’s implied probability based on his current F1 odds is 41.67 percent.

“Too slow, that’s how you sum it up,” he said. “There’s not much else to really discuss. I tried really everything to manage it as good as I could, looking after tires and stuff, but it’s just not enough when behind you, they’re just pushing you and you see there’s clearly a bit more pace. I was already struggling with the tires. You could see every lap he was just getting closer and closer.”

Bottas (+650) did not yield immediately to Hamilton despite instructions from his race engineer in Barcelona. That was not the first time it happened. However, it’s also an indicator that Bottas really wants to win. He is aware of the strength and power of that Mercedes car. He hasn’t won a race this season yet and would be desperate to push both Hamilton and Verstappen around the leaner corners of Monaco.

Sergio Perez (+1100) will require some help from the rest of the field to stake a claim to win at Monaco. Even though the Red Bull car is an outstanding vehicle, he is just too far off from Mercedes. The same can be said about Charles Leclerc (+2500), who has promised a lot but delivered far less than expected.

History of the Monaco Grand Prix

This track was built several centuries ago when Monaco was established as a colony of Genoa. Its first race, however, was in 1929 when Antony Noghes, a cigarette manufacturer, organized a race with members of the Automobile Club de Monaco. The first Formula 1 race was over two decades later, in 1950. The Monaco Grand Prix has been consistently featured on the F1 calendar since 1955.

Race Technicals

In the 2003 Grand Prix in Monaco, there were no passes! That’s a good indicator of how difficult it is to overtake on this track. The entire circuit is extremely narrow and cramped, which makes this race one of the hardest for amateur drivers to classify themselves.

There are a total of 19 turns with a DRS detection zone around turn 17. Between turns 9 and 10, there is a speed trap. The length of the circuit is 3.337 kilometers. There will be a total race distance of a little over 360 kilometers, divided into 78 laps of high-octane racing. The fastest lap record at this circuit was set by Max Verstappen in 2018 with a time of 1:14.260.

Forecasted Weather Conditions

More than a week out from the race, the expected weather is sunny intervals with a gentle breeze. Lovely conditions for a picnic and an intense Formula 1 race! The highest chance of precipitation is about 20 percent closer to the evening. By then, the race will be done. The chance of rain impacting this race is very low.

Betting Strategy for Monaco Grand Prix

Races this season are starting to follow a discernible pattern. It doesn’t really matter where Hamilton is on the track, he can come back to win. Even though the probability is much lower based on these F1 odds, I’d still back Hamilton to win this race and Verstappen to finish second.

There are some interesting betting markets at various sportsbooks, including podium finish and fastest lap. Here is where you could derive some value and reduce or increase your risk exposure as you deem appropriate.

Hamilton and Verstappen are almost guaranteed to get on the podium. So even though those F1 odds aren’t high, the sheer dominance should at least net you a small profit.

The most interesting aspect could be fastest lap. Now remember, there is one point in the driver standings up for grabs in each race for the driver who records the fastest lap. It’s not just a vanity prop bet in Formula 1. And there is some reasoning to this.

Fastest laps are usually recorded in the final few laps of a race. Depending on the position and nature of the race, drivers pit toward the end if they have nothing to lose or are assured that they won’t lose a position (like Verstappen in Barcelona). They can then switch to a new set of tires, which will provide quicker times across laps. It’s not a bet you want to place ahead of the race. Instead, wait, watch the race and make your decision toward the latter half.

We’ll return after the Monaco Grand Prix to provide you with a new analysis for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.