It's been a tough stretch for Lewis Hamilton and his Mercedes team. They have won just once in their last five races and were hoping to change that this week in Germany, however, engine troubles in qualifying will see Hamilton start 14th on the grid at Hockenheim. Qualifying caused a major disruption to initial odds on the race.
Conversely, It’s been quite a month for Ferrari. Kimi Raikkonen hit one of the three bets in Britain by reaching the podium at +165. Sebastian Vettel scuttled the other two by beating out Lewis Hamilton once again. With the win at Silverstone, Vettel has taken over possession of first place in the driver standings and Ferrari also leads on the constructors’ board. Mercedes will be looking for redemption in Vettel’s homeland this week.
With just two races left before F1’s summer break, teams will be looking to leave on a high note at Hockenheim this week and Hungary next. This is the first German Grand Prix since 2016 as the event is now biennial on the F1 calendar. Lewis Hamilton won that 67-lap race in 1:30:44, seven seconds ahead of Daniel Ricciardo and 13.4 seconds ahead of Max Verstappen. Vettel was a disappointing 5th.
P1: Hamilton Podium Finish - yes (+120)
Lewis Hamilton is a two-time Sportsbook at Hockenheim and three-time Sportsbook of the German Grand Prix. He also had the second fastest lap in Friday’s practice. While the last five races haven’t been overly kind to Mercedes or to Hamilton’s #44, his Mercedes team will be looking for a solid showing at home.
Despite car troubles and a 14th place start on the grid after qualifying, Hamilton is still one of the top drivers on the circuit. When you combine the hunger to win, a track where he’s had success before, and plus odds, this is a value bet for the German Grand Prix.
P2: Both Red Bull Cars Points Finish – No (+120)
Daniel Ricciardo will start from the back of the grid on Sunday after penalties for exceeding the number of power units on his car were administered to the team. Despite the penalties, Ricciardo feels like he can work his way back into contention, given the many passing opportunities at Hockenheim.
The reason I like this bet is two-fold. First off, the obvious factor of having to start at the back of the grid will make it difficult for him to climb into the top 10. Secondly, though, both Red Bull cars had some mechanical issues during Friday’s practice runs. The conditions appear ripe for one or both of the Red Bull cars to falter on Sunday.
P3: Sebastian Vettel to win (-200)
German Sebastian Vettel sits on the pole at Hockenheim where he is looking for his first career F1 win at the Hockenheimring. He has started on the pole here once before, in 2010 with Red Bull, and finished third. With eight more years experience and a more powerful car, history is in the grasp of the points leader.
Beware, however, as Vettel has made the podium just once in five races on this track:
2016: Started 6th, finished 5th (Ferrari)
2014: Started 6th, finished 4th (Red Bull)
2012: Started 2nd, finished 5th (Red Bull)
2010: Started 1st, finished 3rd (Red Bull)
2008: Started 9th, finished 8th (Toro Rosso)
Check out the full list of odds to win the 2018 German Grand Prix below:
|Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari)||-200|
|Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)||+500|
|Max Verstappen (Red Bull)||+550|
|Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)||+900|
|Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari)||+1000|
|Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull)||+5000|
|Kevin Magnussen (Haas)||+50000|
|Romain Grosjean (Haas)||+50000|
|Carlos Sainz (Renault)||+100000|
|Nico Hulkenberg (Renault)||+100000|
|Charles Leclerc (Alfa Romeo Sauber)||+150000|
|Esteban Ocon (Force India)||+200000|
|Fernando Alonso (McLaren)||+200000|
|Sergio Perez (Force India)||+200000|
|Pierre Gasly (Toro Rosso Honda)||+300000|
|Marcus Ericsson (Alfa Romeo Sauber)||+300000|
|Stoffel Vandoorne (McLaren)||+300000|
|Sergey Sirotkin (Williams)||+300000|
|Brendon Hartley (Toro Rosso Honda)||+400000|
|Lance Stroll (Williams)||+400000|
Odds as of July 21 at Sportsbook