With our outright wagers placed, we now turn our attention to the prop market for our expert selections for the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational. It is always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines for your 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational prop bets as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.
Last week at the Honda Classic, it appeared it would be a nice showing for our prop bets with Roger Sloan and Jim Herman making some early noise, but neither was able to finish the tournament on a high note. While they eventually let us down, John Huh came through with an easy top-20 cash, finishing in a tie for ninth place. Hoping to continue our success, we turn our attention up the street to Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Tournament favorite Jon Rahm is heavily favored to finish inside the top 20 this week at Sportsbook, listed at -350. Our odds calculator gives the world No. 1 a 77.78 percent chance to find the first or second page of the leaderboard in his Arnold Palmer Invitational debut.
But with the Spaniard struggling with his putter just a touch, it will be interesting to see how he takes to Bay Hill Club and Lodge. Needing to lay $350 to profit $100 with his odds, we will instead look further down the Arnold Palmer Invitational oddsboard for our prop bets, as we usually do.
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2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational: What To Look For
Since 2005, no Americans other than Tiger Woods, Matt Every and Bryson DeChambeau have won the Arnold Palmer Invitational. While the vast majority of those tournaments were won by the man who has 15 major championships to his name, the run of European and International dominance is noteworthy.
Past winners have included Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup team members Jason Day, Marc Leishman, Rory McIlroy, Francesco Molinari and Tyrrell Hatton. The one constant in the player who eventually slips into the red cardigan is the caliber of their game.
Bay Hill is not for the faint of heart, measuring nearly 7,500 yards and playing to a par 72. With extremely penal rough off the tee and water hazards capable of ruining one’s tournament, a complete four rounds will be needed around the Arnold Palmer redesign.
With all four par 3s measuring at or above 200 yards, numerous par 4s over 450 yards, and the need to feast on par 5s, those players who possess a quality with their long irons will surge ahead. A longtime staple on the PGA Tour, Bay Hill has always played as one of the most difficult stops on the season and should once again for this year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational.
2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Prop Bets & Best Bets
Patton Kizzire +450 To Finish Inside The Top 20
We looked in the direction of Kizzire at the WM Phoenix Open with a top-20 wager and he treated us kindly, finishing in a tie for 10th at TPC Scottsdale. Hailing from the southeastern United States, Kizzire is always a player to consider when the tour heads to the Sunshine State.
While at first glance the West Coast may have given the Auburn product fits, it was primarily due to his discomfort on the California turf. Much more inclined to perform to his baseline on Bermuda grass, the iron play that accompanied Kizzire at Riviera has an opportunity to propel him inside the top 20 as well.
Ranking 13th in SG: Approach at the Genesis Invitational, Kizzire struggled on and around the greens. Marking another week in which he gained strokes with his irons, making it four of five, the 35-year-old has yet to take to Bay Hill. A long hitter – although not accurate – this can be seen as the main culprit as Kizzire has gained strokes with the putter in his last two showings in Orlando. If he is able to combine this putting with his iron play, the potential is surely there for Kizzire and makes for our first Arnold Palmer Invitational prop bet.
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Danny Lee +500 To Finish Inside The Top 20
There are a few times every year when Lee deserves some thought and the Arnold Palmer Invitational is one of them. Playing in his 10th API, the New Zealander has two top-20 finishes and more recently a top-five result in 2020.
After playing well at the Genesis Invitational and finishing in a tie for 21st, just a slight improvement in a weaker field could go a long way, as Lee struck the ball beautifully at Riviera, gaining about two strokes on the field with his iron play.
Combined with his putter, which has shown some serious form to begin 2022, Lee has the profile to threaten the top 20. A long driver of the golf ball, Lee ranks inside the top 25 in this field in proximity from 200-plus yards, Strokes Gained: Par-5s and birdies made. This is a recipe for success if the 31-year-old is able to avoid all the trouble that lurks at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Greyson Sigg +550 To Finish Inside The Top 20
The Georgia boys are running rampant on the PGA Tour after Sepp Straka’s victory at the Honda Classic. Between the big Austrian’s trip to the winner’s circle, Keith Mitchell’s strong start to the new year and many others putting together quality results, a new Bulldog in Greyson Sigg should feel somewhat inspired this week.
Taking part in his first Florida swing on the tour, Sigg should have a higher sense of comfort playing on the East Coast. While it failed to materialize into anything last week at the PGA National, I will not let his lone start sour my taste as the Champion Course has dismantled many first-timers.
Bay Hill, while difficult, should be more conducive to Sigg’s game as he ranks inside the top 30 in greens in regulation. With three consecutive top-35 finishes to his name before last week, I like Sigg to brush off the Honda Classic and impress many in his Arnold Palmer Invitational debut.
Sean O’Hair +500 To Finish Inside The Top 20
A player a long way from his debut appearance in the Arnold Palmer Invitational is Sean O’Hair, who first played at Bay Hill in 2006. Most known for his competitiveness with Tiger Woods in the late 2000s, he captured a runner-up result and a third-place finish in back-to-back years in 2008 and 2009.
Now more than a decade removed from his run-in with Woods, O’Hair arrives this season very much under the radar. After collecting a top-20 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the American then went to play on the Korn Ferry Tour where he finished inside the top 10 at the LECOM Suncoast Classic.
Inside the top 21 in this field in bogey avoidance, Strokes Gained: Par-5, and greens in regulation, there is a lot to like about the 39-year-old this week. Continually getting better on the greens, he is much better suited for the Florida test as he has played some of his best golf not only on Bermuda grass but in difficult, windy conditions.