With our outright wagers placed, we now turn our attention to the prop market for our expert selections for the 2022 Valspar Championship. It is always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines for your 2022 Valspar Championship prop bets as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.
Last week at The Players Championship, we were circling our prey, but to no avail. With strong starts from K.H. Lee, Denny McCarthy and Kevin Streelman, the weather eventually got the better of all our selections at TPC Sawgrass in what was a bizarre week of golf. We now turn our attention to the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort.
With nine of the top 20 players in the world teeing it up in Tampa, Florida this week, it is a congested top of the oddsboard at [Sportsbook not available for your region]. While it may be the case in the outright market, Justin Thomas separates himself from the pack in the top-20 market as he is -225 to do so this week at the Valspar Championship.
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Our odds calculator gives the world No. 8 a 69.23 percent chance to finish inside the top 20, a feat he was able to accomplish last year when he finished in a tie for 13th. But needing to lay $225 to profit $100 at those odds, we will instead look further down the Valspar Championship oddsboard as this has long been one of the most difficult stops on the PGA Tour.
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2022 Valspar Championship: What to Look For
The Players Championship leaking into the workweek brought a slew of withdrawals on Monday and Tuesday, with tournament favorites Paul Casey and Joaquin Niemann unwilling to make the short trip from Ponte Vedra Beach to the Tampa area.
While those two will not be playing, a great slate of players are scheduled to, including world No. 2 Collin Morikawa and world No. 3 Viktor Hovland. The young Norwegian was in with a chance come the final round of The Players Championship but was unable to summon a clutch short game down the stretch at TPC Sawgrass.
Hovland makes for an interesting prospect as he, Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson all found their games on the Pete Dye design. Johnson in particular went about as under the radar as one can when capturing a tournament scoring record. After completing his Players Championship with a 9-under 63, Johnson now comes to the Valspar Championship for the third consecutive season.
Winless since his victory at the 2020 Masters in November, perhaps this will be the time for Johnson to re-enter the Sportsbook’s circle. Often one who thrives in more difficult conditions, he collected a T-6 in 2019 and a T-48 last season. He was unable to find his touch on the greens in 2021, but if his putter comes to life, he should threaten the leaderboard on Sunday.
2022 Valspar Championship Prop Bets & Best Bets
Nick Taylor +475 To Finish Inside The Top 20
Taylor has very sneakily been enjoying a fantastic start to his 2022, specifically in the state of Florida. Banking a T-16 finish at the Honda Classic and a T-32 result at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the Canadian added to what was a very successful West Coast swing.
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Collecting three top-33 finishes in the Golden State, Taylor employed a balanced approach, often gaining strokes in each tee-to-green metric. Ranking 13th in SG: tee-to-green over his last 24 rounds, he should take solace in a couple of his prior Valspar Championship appearances. With two top-25 finishes in six showings, the 33-year-old possesses a mixed bag of results but has flashed what he is capable of at the Copperhead Course.
Second in bogey avoidance, fourth in scrambling and 30th in greens in regulation, Taylor has the statistical profile to compete at this difficult venue. Hovering around the top 20 often this year, I expect the two-time PGA Tour Sportsbook to do just that this week at the Valspar Championship.
Kramer Hickok +500 To Finish Inside The Top 20
All signs are pointing to Kramer Hickok this week as the Texan is coming off a fantastic Players Championship despite only finishing in a tie for 42nd. Striking it well off the tee and with his irons, Hickok was able to get just enough out of his short game to contend over the weekend at TPC Sawgrass.
This followed up missed cuts in three of his four previous starts on the PGA Tour and was only his third weekend appearance in 2022. With one of those being a top-20 effort at the Sony Open, I believe a number of parallels can be drawn to Waialae Country Club in Honolulu.
The 29-year-old often plays his best golf at this type of venue, a tree-lined golf course that boasts firm and fast conditions. This will be Hickok’s third appearance at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook. Making it to the weekend in the first two, he has yet to find any form with the putter in hand, but if he does, the rest of his game is strong enough to finish inside the top 20 of the Valspar Championship.
J.J. Spaun +500 To Finish Inside The Top 20
With the inclusion of five par 3s, not only will those holes play a primary factor in this tournament, but also the par 5s as those four holes must be taken advantage of. When diving into par-5 scoring, Spaun’s name checks in at 25th in this field over the last 24 rounds. The California native could be in store for a quality result in Florida.
Beginning his East Coast swing making the cut at the Honda Classic and the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he has flashed enough recent form to garner consideration. Put Spaun on a golf course where accuracy off the tee is a prerequisite and his stock only rises.
After finishing inside the top 20 at the RSM Classic and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the 31-year-old’s week will come down to his short game. Top-30 in SG: off-the-tee and birdies or better, he has plenty of upside and is capable of scoring, but also blowing up as he ranks 74th in bogey avoidance.
J.T. Poston +850 To Finish Inside The Top 20
I am convinced a quality result is right around the corner for Poston, who has yet to really impress in 2022. Falling flat during the swing season, the Western Carolina product missed all six cuts in the fall of 2021. He posted on social media that he found a more consistent swing during his offseason, and this proved to be true as he shot out of the gates with strong starts at the Sony Open and The American Express.
He has yet to find the top 20 on a leaderboard, but he has been close, namely at the WM Phoenix Open where he finished in a tie for 23rd. Poston has the skill to hole plenty of putts just like Cam Smith did at TPC Sawgrass, boasting greens similar to those at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook.
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Gaining strokes off the tee in all seven starts of 2022, Poston possesses a nice blend of distance and accuracy. Being 25th in scrambling, his short game appears to be in a nice spot and could bode well for him given the higher rate of missed greens in regulation at Innisbrook.
The more difficult the conditions, the better for Poston as he has been off with his irons for quite some time. Known to play his best golf on tree-lined, classical golf courses, Poston to finish inside the top 20 makes for our final prop bet of the Valspar Championship.
