With our outright wagers placed, we now turn our attention to the prop market for our expert selections for the 2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. It is always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines for your 2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play prop bets as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.
Last week at the Valspar Championship, we had a couple of close calls as both J.J. Spaun and Kramer Hickok narrowly missed out on the top 20, our selections wilting in the Florida heat as the Copperhead Course became more difficult. We now turn our attention to Austin Country Club for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play.
The top 64 players in the world are set to take to the Pete Dye design in Austin, Texas, for the sixth playing of this tournament at this venue. Unlike your standard week of stroke play, this week will feature match play similar to the final day of the Ryder Cup or Presidents Cup.
As such, the traditional top-10 and top-20 markets are not listed and we will instead target specific group winners. World No. 1 and tournament favorite Jon Rahm has received a very favorable draw and is +120 at Sportsbook to emerge from his round-robin group, making for a wager I do not mind indulging in. The Spaniard should be set up to make a nice run deep into the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play as our odds calculator gives him a 45.45 percent chance to advance to the Round of 16.
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2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play: What To Look For
A factor getting brushed under the rug is the length of this tournament as seven matches will need to be won by the eventual champion. With this being the case, one must look at the health of their potential outright selections as stamina and endurance are certainly a necessity in the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play.
When discussing this, both Webb Simpson and Bryson DeChambeau immediately come to mind. With Simpson dealing with a neck injury and playing sparingly, it will be interesting to see where his endurance levels are at. If they are at a spot where he is comfortable, he could be in store for a nice week as Austin CC is a perfect fit for the former U.S. Open champion.
We have not seen DeChambeau, on the other hand, since the Saudi International when he withdrew during the tournament. Nursing a wrist injury as well as a back injury, the big-hitting American may just want a few rounds under his belt ahead of the Masters. If he’s able to find a semblance of form, perhaps target DeChambeau in two weeks’ time instead of this week in Texas.
2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Prop Bets & Best Bets:
Group 2 Winner: Sergio Garcia +250
We discussed the need for endurance this week and while I do not believe Garcia has enough in the tank for a championship run, he should be capable for three matches. The No. 3 seed in this group, he will face off against Collin Morikawa, Jason Kokrak and Robert MacIntyre.
The all-time points leader in Ryder Cup history, the Spaniard was arguably the best player in this field last year before a quarterfinal exit to Victor Perez, improving his career record to 28-22-1 in the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. The 42-year-old has taken a liking to this event after the move to Austin CC at 12-7-1 on the par 71.
He is in strong enough form compared to his counterparts that I believe this is a nice spot to buy in. Morikawa has been a victim of a poor Florida swing as his actual swing appears to be out of sync at the moment. His lack of quality opens the door for one of the non-favorites to advance and given Garcia’s history in this event and in this format, he makes for an easy pick to make it to the Round of 16.
Group 7 Winner: Xander Schauffele +130
If any of the top players received a favorable draw, it is Xander Schauffele as he spearheads the weakest group in the field, alongside Tony Finau, Lucas Herbert and Takumi Kanaya. It is reasonable to suggest Schauffele has the easiest path to the Round of 16.
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That’s especially true considering the Olympic gold medalist’s form as he arrives to the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play as the world No. 9 and having collected four top-20 finishes outside of the Players Championship. Striking the ball adequately and finally finding some touch on and around the greens, Schauffele should make for a difficult out for anyone in this tournament.
Considering he was just a playoff away from advancing into the single-elimination portion of the tournament last year, this is clearly a format in which the Californian can thrive. Now 4-2-3 in his WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play career, he fell to Scottie Scheffler in 2021 and conceivably could have made a similar run to the championship. In a pod without much concern, Schauffele to win this group is my favorite prop bet of the week.
Group 9 Winner: Talor Gooch +210
If Group 7 is considered the weakest, Group 9 is not far behind as the top seed, Bryson DeChambeau, comes to the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play with plenty of question marks. How healthy is he? Has he been able to practice? Is he just trying to get some reps under his belt for the Masters?
The answers hold the key to this group and I am willing to suggest DeChambeau’s eyes are on Augusta National in a couple of weeks. Because of this, Gooch makes for a worthy investment as he is in the midst of a career season, having garnered his first victory at the RSM Classic.
Paired up with a pair of elder Englishmen in Lee Westwood and Richard Bland, the quality in Gooch’s game is far and away better than the two. While this group is predicated on which version of DeChambeau we get, the number of unknowns makes Gooch the sound selection in Group 9.
Group 12 Winner: Tom Hoge +220
The defending champion, Billy Horschel, resides in this group and given his recent stretch of play, he may be the sensible wager. After a close call at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the former Florida Gator withdrew from the final day of the Players, citing a sinus infection. While I am sure he is now over this affliction, it does leave room for one of the other three to squeak by.
While Thomas Pieters impressed in his Ryder Cup debut in 2016, it occurred more than half a decade ago and is thrown out of my analysis. Having not played well in the United States this season, he makes for an easy pass, as does Min Woo Lee, who is searching for his game. This leaves us with the final member of this group, Tom Hoge.
With four contention runs in a seven-tournament stretch to begin his 2022, the former TCU Horned Frog is quickly becoming a mainstay on leaderboards. He finally broke through at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, following up a runner-up at the American Express and preceding late tee times on Sunday at both the WM Phoenix Open and the Players.
The reason Hoge is so attractive in this spot is the pinpoint accuracy he possesses with his scoring club. At only 7,200 yards, the 32-year-old will be able to rely on his strengths and frustrate his opponents. If able to combine this skill set with a competent putting week, he should be able to at least advance to the Round of 16.