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2021 Wyndham Championship Prop Bets: Can Todd, Armour crack top 10?

Wyndham Championship prop bets are here!

With our outright wagers placed, we now turn to the prop market for our expert selections for the Wyndham Championship. It’s always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines for your Wyndham Championship prop bets as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.

Sedgefield Country Club will play host this week as players make their last efforts to qualify for the FedExCup playoffs. It was here last year that Jim Herman came through as a heavy underdog, defeating the likes of Billy Horschel, Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner and Si Woo Kim.

Herman, the consummate journeyman and former head professional, relied heavily on his ball-striking, posting +4.3 Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and +5.9 SG: Approach. Combine that with a red-hot putter, through which he gained north of six strokes, and it’s easy to see which clubs led to his success in last year’s Wyndham Championship.

While J.T. Poston also utilized a strong putting performance in 2019, he also failed to make a single mistake. Going bogey-free over the entire week, Poston posted +6.8 SG: Approach for the tournament en route to a score of 22 under.

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That appears to be the neighborhood in which the winning score resides in Greensboro, North Carolina. Two of the last five champions at the Wyndham Championship have reached 22 under, while the other three reached 21 under by week’s end. I’d expect more of the same, but players have been going a bit lower this season in general, so maybe something in the range of 25 under will be the eventual winning score.

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Wyndham Championship Prop Bets: What to Look For

With the winning scores of the past few years reaching 21 to 22 under, birdies will be of the utmost importance this week at the Wyndham Championship. In unison with standard ball-striking metrics, that will be the bones of our operations for the season finale.

Herman – and Kim in 2016 – both gained north of 10 combined strokes off the tee and with their irons, while Poston, Brandt Snedeker and Henrik Stenson all gained more than six strokes with their irons alone. This validates our reasoning and should remain true this week as well.

As for intangibles, we’ll be going with some players who are right on that FedExCup playoffs bubble – a risky proposition, sure, but one that I am comfortable with. While we won’t be asking them to win the Wyndham Championship, a strong showing would be mutually beneficial.

At Bovada, tournament favorite Webb Simpson is -110 to finish inside the top 10. These odds imply a 52.38 percent probability of him being able to do so. As for us, we’ll venture a bit further down the oddsboard as it worked out for us last week. Sam Burns came through and nearly won the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. Hopefully, we’ll get another wager across the finish line as we outline our Wyndham Championship prop bets.

Wyndham Championship Prop Bets & Best Bets: Our Recommendations

Brendon Todd (+500 to finish inside the top 10):

What has happened to Brendon Todd this year? After returning to the winner’s circle with back-to-back victories to begin the 2019-2020 season, the former Georgia Bulldog has been nowhere to be found. Yet, a course such as Sedgefield Country Club, where distance isn’t a necessity and accuracy and precision reign supreme, should put him back on the map.

And while I may be harsh, his game isn’t in that poor a spot, despite how it may seem. Yes, he has missed three consecutive cuts, but not all missed cuts are created equal. He had a strong opening round in Detroit, only to falter on Friday. I’ll put his play in England behind us and look to what happened at the 3M Open where he posted +4.2 SG: Tee-to-Green, only to offset it by losing the same number of strokes on the greens.

Despite the missed cuts and despite the lack of history at Sedgefield Country Club, I am enamored by Todd’s prospects for the week. In five appearances in Greensboro, he has failed to make it to the weekend four times. However, if he can bring that tee-to-green prowess from Minnesota to North Carolina, he’s just a strong putting performance away from improving on that record. It’s a tall ask, yes, but a top-10 finish from Todd isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

Ryan Armour (+800 to finish inside the top 10):

This is slowly becoming the unofficial headquarters for the Ryan Armour fan club. He’s been written up time and time again, and while he has only come through for us once, thanks to a strong showing at the 3M Open, I am going back to the well with a smile on my face. Coming off a missed cut at the Barracuda Championship, Armour arrives to Sedgefield Country Club boasting some of the best course history in the field.

Of those players not named Webb Simpson, Armour has the most total strokes gained of the last five years. As you can imagine, he’s racked up quality finishes, going T-4, T-8, T-22 and T-25 in his last four appearances in the Wyndham Championship.

Yes, he is trending in the wrong direction from a finishing perspective, but the form has been there over the last couple of months. With three top-10 finishes in his last seven starts on the PGA Tour, I’d expect Armour to do something similar this week. The irons will need to improve, as they have been questionable of late, but if they do, then he should only thrive. As such, the former Ohio State Buckeye makes for one of our best bets for the Wyndham Championship.

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Bo Hoag (+400 to finish inside the top 20):

The man with the most to lose this week has to be Hoag. Sitting 125th in the FedExCup standings, he is currently the last player in when it comes to the field in New Jersey next week. Coming off a mediocre finish at the Barracuda Championship, it’s difficult to decipher exactly where things went wrong without strokes-gained data.

However, before his trip to California, things heated up as he was in contention in Minnesota, eventually finishing in a tie for 16th. That number doesn’t do justice to Hoag’s play – it was much better than just your typical top-20 finish as a few water balls skewed not only his finishing position, but also his strokes-gained figures.

Tee to green, he’s been exceptional for the better part of two months. Dating back to the Memorial, Hoag has two iron performances that really rise above the rest. At Detroit GC, another Donald Ross design, he posted +6.2 SG: Approach for the week. Then at the Barbasol Championship, he narrowly improved on that iron play, this time gaining 6.8 strokes in the same category.

There could be some correlation to those two courses based on not only the course architect, but also who contended those weeks. If that proves to be true, Hoag should make a prudent top-10 selection and thus makes our list of best prop bets for the Wyndham Championship.

Davis Thompson (+900 to finish inside the top 20):

There have and will continue to be a ton of Georgia Bulldog discussions this week. Whether it’s Russell Henley, Brian Harman or even Bubba Watson, the SEC powerhouse continues to dominate the PGA Tour. While it didn’t work out for us and Harris English last week at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude, we are going back to the Chris Haack-led squad, but with an unsuspecting candidate in Davis Thompson.

The recently turned professional will be making his sixth pro start this week on the PGA Tour. With three top-40 finishes and having connected on the weekend in four of his five previous outings, I believe the former Bulldog makes a strong case that the Wyndham Championship will be his breakout stage.

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At another Donald Ross design, Detroit GC, the young gun got off to a dream start just a month ago, leading after the first round at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. While he wasn’t able to convert that into a victory, it’s reassuring to know that his best can compete with the world’s best.

He comes off a forgettable Barracuda Championship, but in his young career, Thompson has shown to be a strong ball-striker. Gaining strokes in that department in every start thus far, it has been his around-the-green play that has held him up. With that part of the bag mitigated in a sense at Sedgefield Country Club, I believe he will be able to turn his recent run of top-40 finishes into a top-20 this week.