By now, we’ve all seen the video. And boy did it ever uproot everyone’s understanding of what a typical “confrontation” at an NBA practice looks like.
In the grainy video obtained by TMZ, Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green is jawing at his teammate, shooting guard Jordan Poole. Apparently, the pair are known for trash-talking at each other from time to time. This time, Green took it to another level, marching over to the baseline and throwing a mean overhand punch that staggered the much smaller Poole.
It’s been chaos since. Green has apologized and stepped away from the team, but there hasn’t been word on whether he’ll return to the Warriors. At the very least, he’ll be fined, and a suspension will be on the table.
But why should sports bettors care? Well, the Green-Poole saga could shake up a lot of NBA betting markets.
For more NBA odds, take a look at our dedicated NBA page, which also includes prop betting opportunities and other betting suggestions. There’s also our How To Bet on the NBA page, which can get you acclimated to basketball wagering, and our ever-popular NBA championship odds, a good place to start scoping out some NBA futures bets.
Draymond Green Trade Odds
Let’s address a scenario where Green is traded. Perhaps the Warriors can’t operate as a functional team if the 32-year-old remains on the roster. So what would a trade yield for Golden State?
Indy gets 2027/2029 1sts from LA.— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) October 6, 2022
GSW saves tens of millions in 2023 luxury tax.
The trade machine approves! Call it in!!!!
(I’m on 7 days of bronchitis medication sorry) pic.twitter.com/QjypcTc085
Sports personality Bill Simmons likes the idea of a three-team swap, where Green ends up on the LA Lakers, Russell Westbrook ends up on the Indiana Pacers and Myles Turner heads to the Warriors. A lot of salary would need to be swapped for such a deal, but if the Lakers can offload Westbrook’s contract and get Green in return, that all sounds swell. I imagine Indiana would say no to this deal.
Maybe the Atlanta Hawks want a slice of Green’s scrappiness on their roster. A deal for Green involving power forward John Collins might appetize the Dubs to ditch their controversial forward. The Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets are two other competitive Western Conference teams that could produce a hefty package for Green.
Either way, if Green leaves Golden State, his new club will be getting a premier defensive force. That will impact a few betting markets. But first, let’s start with how Green’s departure would affect the Warriors.
The Warriors Without Draymond Green
Green’s been a crucial part of the Warriors core since he became a starter in 2014-15. Since the start of that season, Golden State has played 105 regular-season games without Green in the lineup, accumulating a 55-50 SU (0.524) record. With Green playing, the squad is much better, producing a 374-150 (0.714) record. All to say, Green’s presence on the court is more impactful than people think.
The defense is where things stand out. Since 2014-15, when Draymond plays, the Dubs allow an average of 106.6 points per game to opponents. That number jumps to 110.6 when Green doesn’t play.
Since 2014-15, the offense has averaged 113.5 points per game when Green is active. Without him, the Dubs are only slightly less effective, producing 110.7 points per game.
Betting Markets Affected By Draymond Green
Since Green’s defense is so important, let’s look at OVER/UNDER markets. In 2021-22, the Warriors were primarily an UNDER team, with the UNDER going 46-35-1 during the regular season. Green only played 46 regular-season games a year ago, but his lockdown D helped keep the score low. If Draymond gets dealt, perhaps the floor opens and there’s more scoring (and more OVERs) in Dubs games.
Green is also primarily a first-half scorer. He’s scored 2,724 career points in the first half of games, compared to 2,457 in the second half. That’s an important note, which you can cross-reference using our first quarter/first half NBA betting report.
There’s also the matter of season win totals and NBA championship odds. Right now, the Warriors’ OVER/UNDER win total sits at 53. Using what we know about Golden State’s shaky record without Green, it’s worth wagering the Warriors to finish UNDER 52 wins (-105) if the power forward gets traded. Obviously, the line will move if the Warriors shake up their roster, but for now, it’s worth betting the UNDER based on disrupted team chemistry alone.
When it comes to NBA playoffs and ultimately NBA title odds, the Dubs have essentially never played a playoff game without Green since 2014-15. Golden State has a 93-33 record in the postseason with Green and lost the only playoff game he’s missed (June 13, 2016, vs Cleveland). It’ll be uncharted territory for the Warriors if they reach the playoffs without Green – assuming they dump him this year – but by then, we’d hypothetically have a whole season’s worth of data to make smarter bets on championship odds.