The New Orleans Saints saw their 10-game winning streak come to an abrupt end in a 13-10 setback to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 13, and on Sunday they’ll go up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the only other team to beat them this season. Sportsbooks opened the Saints as 8-point road favorites with a total of 56.
- The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the Saints’ last 20 games vs the Buccaneers (avg. combined score: 47.1).
- The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as home underdogs.
- The Saints are 5-1 SU in their last six games after a loss.
Saints vs Buccaneers Game Center
Bucs have been a lights-out bet as home underdogs
The Buccaneers are coming off a big 24-17 win over the Carolina Panthers last week to give them two victories in a row and improve their record to 5-7 SU. Tampa Bay’s improvement on defense has been noticeable, as the unit came away with four interceptions and four sacks against the Panthers. Since replacing Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, Jameis Winston has thrown for 561 yards and four touchdowns with zero turnovers in the last two games. Tampa Bay ranks 10th in the NFL with 26.5 points per game and leads the league with 442.7 total yards per contest.
Betting on the Bucs as home underdogs has been a profitable strategy of late. In Tampa Bay’s last four tilts when tabbed as a home dog, it’s 4-0 ATS. The Buccaneers haven’t been as stellar vs divisional opponents, however, going 3-7 SU in their previous 10 vs the NFC South.
Brees has already lit up Tampa Bay this season
The Saints’ usual high-octane offense faltered in a major way against the Cowboys, as MVP front-runner Drew Brees was held to only 127 passing yards and a touchdown on 18-of-28 passing. The longtime signal-caller threw only his second interception of the season in the contest.
Saints bettors will be happy to see Brees and the rest of the Saints offense go up against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 28th in the NFL with 274.4 passing yards allowed per game. Brees was fantastic in New Orleans’ 48-40 home loss to the Buccaneers in Week 1, passing for 439 yards and three touchdowns with zero picks while completing 37 of 45 throws. Simply put, there’s never been a better option for the Saints’ offensive attack to get back on track.
When it comes to the total, betting trends are pointing to an UNDER tonight. The UNDER is 14-6 in the past 20 meetings between the Saints and Buccaneers with an average combined score of 47 points. The UNDER is also 5-1 in the Bucs’ past six home games when facing NFC South teams.
My pick: take the OVER
While the UNDER trend above looks appealing on paper, I’m expecting this one to go OVER. The Saints offense was out of sorts in Week 13, but the Bucs defense is a far cry from the Cowboys unit. Tampa Bay has proven it can score with ease, and New Orleans is a more than capable partner to keep up the offensive pace. Take the OVER.
