Another season of NFL football is in the books, which means it's time to look to 2024 NFL Draft odds.
We'll be updating our 2024 mock draft ahead of the selection show, but on this page I'll break down the different specific odds and markets available for the NFL Draft. I'll compile all the draft props and handicap some of my best picks:
2024 NFL Draft Odds: First Overall Pick
Player | Odds |
---|---|
QB Caleb Williams | -1200 |
QB Jayden Daniels | +750 |
QB Drake Maye | +900 |
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. | +1500 |
QB JJ McCarthy | +3000 |
QB Bo Nix | +10000 |
Odds as of March 7th, 2024
Williams Clear Favorite to go first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft
The NFL draft odds are pretty clear, USC QB Caleb Williams is basically a lock to go first overall on April 25th. The 2023 Heisman winner looked an awful lot like Patrick Mahomes in his college career, racking up 93 passing touchdowns, over 10,000 yards, and just 14 interceptions across three years.
Williams did have a 'down' year in 2024, where he saw the interception rate tick up and failed to lead USC to the College Football Playoff once again. But those minor flaws, if you even want to call them that, will not prevent Williams from being the first name called on draft day. He's a potential franchise quarterback who can carry a team to the Super Bowl in a few years — there's no doubt in my mind.
Could Bears Trade Down From No. 1?
It's less of a question about who the first pick will be this year and more of which team will make that Williams selection at one. The Chicago Bears, who own the top selection this year, already have a capable QB in Justin Fields and have a bevy of needs to address in the draft. Could they trade down a spot or two and pick up Marvin Harrison Jr. at receiver, leaving Arizona or Washington to take Williams at 1.1?
There's already been some speculation the Commanders, currently picking at No. 2, are trying to trade up after Washington hired Kliff Kingsbury to be the team's offensive coordinator. Kingsbury worked closely with Williams as a USC offensive analyst this past season. But, I think the safe bet here is the Bears stay at 1 and take Williams.
"If [Kliff Kingsbury] gives him the stamp of approval, then you move heaven and Earth to try and get in position to draft [Caleb Williams]."
— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) February 7, 2024
—@LRiddickESPN pic.twitter.com/oxWmGUv0NZ
2024 NFL Draft Odds: Second Overall Pick
Player | Odds |
---|---|
QB Drake Maye | -120 |
QB Jayden Daniels | +110 |
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. | +1000 |
QB Caleb Williams | +1000 |
QB JJ McCarthy | +1800 |
Jayden Daniels was a huge riser this season after posting a massive year for LSU. But, Drake Maye's size and high floor should keep up as the No. 2 pick by the time April rolls around.
Even though he took a clear step back with UNC this past season, Maye has long been touted as the No. 2 to Caleb Williams in 2024. With size, consistency, and dependability on his side, Maye looks a lot like Jared Goff coming into the 2024 Draft. It's not a flashy selection, but for a team like the Commanders, Maye would be hard to pass up at pick two.
2024 NFL Draft Odds: 3rd Overall Pick
Player | Odds |
---|---|
QB Jayden Daniels | +145 |
QB Drake Maye | +165 |
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. | +240 |
QB JJ McCarthy | +650 |
OT Joe Alt | +4000 |
This market is pretty directly linked with Marvin Harrison Jr.'s odds, so check out why I think MHJ is the safest bet to go 1.3 below:
2024 NFL Draft Odds: Marvin Harrison Jr. Odds
Player | Odds |
---|---|
Arizona Cardinals | -225 |
Chicago Bears | +350 |
New England Patriots | +400 |
Los Angeles Chargers | +1100 |
Washington Commanders | +1400 |
This is where the draft gets interesting. After the top quarterbacks fall off the board, Marvin Harrison Jr. has long been expected to be the top player selected after racking up massive seasons for Ohio State, but emergent LSU QB Jayden Daniels is also making a case. I see the Patriots signing a veteran QB (Russell Wilson?) and then going MHJ at this spot.
However, I have seen some concerns about MHJ start to emerge in recent weeks. Can he separate well? Can he make defenders miss in the open field? If these small fears continue to pop up in the next few weeks, Harrison could fall out of the third spot in the draft.
For now, MHJ -> the Patriots at +400 is still the best value bet in his markets.
Marvin Harrison Jr. has a worrisome college production profile.
— Gridiron Grading (@GridironGrading) February 8, 2024
Not many successful NFL WRs with a high contested target rate and low missed tackle forced rate.
Justin Jefferson showing up in 2018 before his college breakout is interesting.
Something to keep in mind for MHJ. pic.twitter.com/Kj4yiSthWq
2024 NFL Draft Odds: Brock Bowers Odds
Player | Odds |
---|---|
Los Angeles Chargers | +330 |
Indianapolis Colts | +450 |
Cincinnati Bengals | +650 |
Chicago Bears | +850 |
New York Jets | +1000 |
It makes sense that new Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh would want to give Justin Herbert an offensive weapon like Bowers, but we almost never see tight ends taken inside the top-10.
The highest-drafted TE ever was Kyle Pitts back in 2021, and he's been criminally underused and kind of a bust for the Falcons, so far. Given how much LA struggled to defend and run the ball last year, I'd be surprised if they burned a top pick on a tight end. I'd expect Harbaugh to trade down or draft an offensive lineman at No. 5, leaving Bowers to fall a few more spots in the draft.
If the Georgia product gets anywhere near No. 10, the Jets will certainly snap him up. New York hasn't had a good receiving tight end in forever, and Bowers would change that immediately.
2024 NFL Draft Odds: J.J. McCarthy Odds
Player | Odds |
---|---|
Denver Broncos | +350 |
Minnesota Vikings | +380 |
New York Giants | +500 |
Las Vegas Raiders | +650 |
Atlanta Falcons | +700 |
There was a point this season when J.J. McCarthy was favored to win the Heisman and looked like a potential top-10 pick in the draft. He fell off a bit since that point (still won a National Championship, though), but the odds still slate him as a potential mid-first-round selection. As these odds suggest, I don't think he'll make it past the string of Minnesota, Denver, Vegas, and New Orleans in the middle of the first round. It's really hard to handicap which team will be the one that takes him though, so I'd stay away from betting this market.
2024 NFL Draft Odds: Michael Penix Jr.
Player | Odds |
---|---|
Seattle Seahawks | +330 |
Atlanta Falcons | +380 |
Minnesota Vikings | +425 |
Las Vegas Raiders | +550 |
Denver Broncos | +700 |
I'm really high on Penix and am pretty confident he'll be a top-15 pick in this year's draft. I'm not sure the Falcons pull the trigger at No. 8, but the former Washington QB is the perfect fit for the Vikings at 11 if he gets there.
Even if the Vikings bring back Kirk Cousins in free agency this year, Penix has the potential to be the QB steal of this draft. Take him this year, stash him for a season or two, and then unleash the athletic passer on the league after some development.
2024 NFL Draft Odds: First Defensive Player Taken
Player | Odds |
---|---|
Dallas Turner | -130 |
Quinyon Mitchell | +380 |
Jared Verse | +475 |
Terrion Arnold | +650 |
Laiatu Latu | +800 |
Byron Murphy II | +1800 |
For most of the last college season, Laiatu Latu was discussed and mocked as the top player in this defensive class. But, in the last few weeks, the UCLA pass-rusher has fallen down the boards and is now seen as a mid-first round pick by some.
While some teams may be concerned by his early-college neck injury, I think Latu is still a great fit for teams drafting 10-15 in the upcoming Draft. If he goes that early, he'll almost certainly be the first defensive player in this class.
Previous NFL First Overall NFL Draft Picks
Since 2001, 17 of the 23 players drafted first were quarterbacks. WR Keyshawn Johnson (1996) was the last player drafted No. 1 overall who wasn't either a QB or a lineman.
In the past 10 drafts, there were six QBs, three DL, and one OL selected first.
Year | Position | Players | School | NFL Team |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | QB | Bryce Young | Alabama | Carolina Panthers |
2022 | DE | Travon Walker | Georgia | Jacksonville Jaguars |
2021 | QB | Trevor Lawrence | Clemson | Jacksonville Jaguars |
2020 | QB | Joe Burrow | LSU | Cincinnati Bengals |
2019 | QB | Kyler Murray | Oklahoma | Arizona Cardinals |
2018 | QB | Baker Mayfield | Oklahoma | Cleveland Browns |
2017 | DE | Myles Garrett | Texas A&M | Cleveland Browns |
2016 | QB | Jared Goff | Cal | Los Angeles Rams |
2015 | QB | Jameis Winston | Florida State | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
2014 | DE | Jadeveon Clowney | South Carolina | Houston Texans |
2023 NFL Draft FAQs
Where can I learn more about how to bet on the NFL draft?
If you love the NFL draft but are new to betting or love betting but haven’t put any money down on the draft before, our guide helps you understand how to bet on the NFL draft. It explains the types of bets you can make, so that you can tackle the NFL draft like Aaron Donald takes down quarterbacks.
Who is favored to be selected first overall in the NFL draft?
Alabama Crimson Tide QB Bryce Young is the current betting favorite to be selected first overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Ohio State QB CJ Stroud and Georgia defensive lineman Jalen Carter are the next two most likely candidates to be selected first overall in the NFL draft.
What other NFL draft prop bets can I make?
NFL draft prop betting involves wagers on just about anything to do with the NFL draft and ranges from who will be the first running back drafted, to whether the No. 1 overall pick hugs his mom or dad first, to how many players from the Big 12 will be drafted in the first round.
Who has the No. 1 pick?
The Carolina Panthers hold the No. 1 pick after trading up with the Chicago Bears.
When is the NFL Draft?
The First Round starts Thursday, April 27 at 8 p.m. ET and the draft concludes April 29.
Where is the 2023 NFL Draft held?
Get ready to see lots of red, as the draft is in Chiefs' back yard at Union Station in Kansas City Missouri.