After 18 weeks of the regular season and one week of playoff action, the NFL is down to eight remaining teams. No doubt every team still playing has Super Bowl aspirations and to get there, key players at key positions will need to perform to the very best of their ability.
Bovada has recently released some NFL playoff prop bets centered around player performance at the QB, RB and WR positions. Which players will lead their respective positions in passing yards, rushing yards and receiving yards?
We break down all three key positions and the NFL playoff stat leader odds below.
NFL Playoff Passing Leader Odds
Odds as of January 20 at Bovada
Who Will Lead The NFL Playoffs In Total Passing Yards?
Josh Allen (+350)
When it comes to scoring points, nobody in the AFC scored more than the Buffalo Bills this year. Buffalo averaged over 28 points per game, thanks in large part to their franchise QB. This year, Josh Allen threw for over 4,400 yards, ranking eighth among NFL pivots. It was only the second time in franchise history that a Buffalo QB threw for over 4,400 yards in a season – the only other time was a year ago when he threw for over 4,500 yards.
The majority of experts believe either Buffalo or Kansas City will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Buffalo is currently a 2.5-point underdog heading into the game against the Chiefs. If and when Buffalo emerges from that game with a victory, it will be Allen and not Mahomes who is the betting favorite in this category.
Aaron Rodgers (+1000)
Once again this year, Aaron Rodgers did what Rodgers seems to always do and that is throw for a ton of yards and put himself in the middle of the NFL MVP conversation. For the fourth consecutive year, the Packers QB surpassed 4,000 yards passing. In fact, Rodgers was so good this year that he is currently the runaway favorite to bring home the MVP hardware for the third time in his career.
As many NFL fans continue to watch Tom Brady defy the aging process, Rodgers and his Packers might be somehow slipping under the radar, despite their 13-4 regular-season record.
Matthew Stafford (+1100)
At +1100 odds to lead all QBs in passing yards this postseason, Matthew Stafford may provide the best value of the bunch. Yes, the Rams must go into Tampa Bay and do what very few have ever been able to do, which is beat Tom Brady at home in the playoffs. However, the Bucs have some key injuries and are famously without the talented but disruptive Antonio Brown.
Many believe that the Rams were just a QB away from being the best team in football last year. If Stafford and company can upset Brady and his Buccaneers this weekend, there will be a lot more talk about Los Angeles being a Super Bowl contender.
At +1000 and +1100 odds, my play is to put a half unit down on both Rodgers and Stafford and then cheer for someone to upset TB12 along the way.
NFL Playoff Rushing Leader Odds
Odds as of January 20 at Bovada
Who Will Lead The NFL Playoffs In Total Rushing Yards?
Cam Akers (+1200)
Last July, the LA Rams announced that Cam Akers was expected to miss all of this year after he tore his ACL a week before training camp. Akers defied the odds, returning from the devastating injury after missing only five months. After watching his teammate Sony Michel rip off a 35-yard run in his first carry of the playoffs this year, Akers might have been wondering where he would fit into the Rams’ offensive plans.
However, it was Akers who finished with more carries when the game was over. The LA running attack will continue to be a two-headed monster, with both Michel and Akers getting lots of opportunities. However, if Akers was able to lead the team in carries in his first game back, there might be a chance that his workload only continues to grow.
Aaron Jones (+1400)
Like the running back duo in LA, the Green Bay Packers have two quality backs who are both capable of putting up big numbers. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon combined this year for over 1,600 yards on the ground. It was Dillon who had a slight edge in total rushing yards during the regular season, but it was Jones who had the better yards per attempt.
Both backs can run the ball, but Jones is definitely the more dangerous receiving threat. That might be the reason why Jones is on the field an average of 11 more snaps per game than Dillon is. At +1400, there is a lot of value in Jones, especially if the Packers can defend home field throughout the playoffs and punch their ticket to the Super Bowl.
AJ Dillon (+1800)
Like the Jones suggestion above, at +1800 odds there is a lot of value to be found on AJ Dillon to lead the playoffs in rushing. Of course Dillon is going to have to split carries and time on the field with Jones. But, if the Packers take care of business and find themselves representing the NFC in this year’s Super Bowl, one of those two RBs will be in contention to lead all backs in rushing yards.
My pick in this category is to drop a half unit on both the Green Bay RBs and hope the Packers, playing on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, can establish their run game on their way to the Super Bowl.
NFL Playoff Receiving Leader Odds
Odds as of January 20 at Bovada
Who Will Lead The NFL Playoffs In Total Receiving Yards?
Davante Adams (+800)
Before this season started, most lists that were ranking the NFL’s current best wide receivers had Davante Adams at the very top. Last year, Adams had an impressive 115 receptions for over 1,300 yards. All Adams did this year was go out and improve on those already impressive stats. With 123 receptions and over 1,500 yards, Adams solidified his position as one of the game’s best wideouts.
The eight-year veteran also ended the season producing his best numbers. From Week 11 through Week 17, Adams went over 100 yards receiving in five of six games and had eight touchdowns during that same time. Adams may not have the breakaway speed of a Ja’Marr Chase, but as Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target, he will continue to put up big numbers as long as the Packers keep winning games.
Deebo Samuel (+4000)
The NFC is loaded with talented teams this year and as experts discuss whether the Buccaneers, Rams or Packers will come out of that conference, people may be sleeping on the San Francisco 49ers. Obviously a lot will have to go right for Deebo Samuel to lead the playoffs in receiving yards this year, including San Francisco upsetting the Packers at Lambeau Field.
However, at +4000 there is value to be found with Samuel. His numbers, especially his more than 1,400 receiving yards and his almost 800 YAC (yards after catch), tell us that Deebo is one of the game’s elite wideouts. At +1300 odds to win the Super Bowl, the 49ers are the fourth-ranked NFC team of the four teams remaining. An upset win in Lambeau will change their odds dramatically.
Cooper Kupp (+600)
Cooper Kupp didn’t just have himself a great year, he had one of the greatest statistical seasons ever by a wide receiver. Kupp led the league in total receiving yards with 1,947. The fifth-year pro also led the league in total receptions (145) and touchdowns by a receiver with 16. What many of us didn’t know is that Kupp also had nine receptions of 40-plus yards, the most in the league, including Ja’Marr Chase, who recorded eight.
If you are one of those who believe that the Tampa Bay roster is just too banged up to realistically repeat as Super Bowl champs, then Kupp at +600 to lead all playoff receivers in total yards might just seem too good to pass up.
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