NFL fans will be treated to the crème de la crème of matchups when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the New York Giants in Week 11 action. Sarcasm aside, these are two teams that are all but crossed off to make the playoffs this season and have a combined 5-13 SU and 7-11 ATS record coming into this tilt. The Bucs have dropped six of their last seven games while the Giants have yet to win a game at home this season.
Oddsmakers aren’t sure which way to lean as the game opened as a pick’em (since moved to Giants -1) with a total of 51.
- The Buccaneers are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last 7 games.
- The Giants are 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games at home.
- The OVER has hit in 7 of the Buccaneers’ 9 games this season.
Buccaneers vs Giants Game Center
Giants Offense Leaves a Lot to be Desired
After dropping 27 points on the toothless 49ers, the Giants offense is back! Again, sarcasm aside, New York’s scoring prowess is not anywhere near where it’s supposed to be with the likes of Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. on the roster as it still only averages 18.8 points per game, which ranks 27th in the NFL. Eli Manning has gotten almost no protection this season as he’s been sacked 32 times, already a career high for him in a single season with seven games to go. The Giants just haven’t been able to sustain drives as evidenced by their lack of third-down conversions (35 percent), which ranks 27th, while they’re 31st in total first downs (149).
It’s also borderline criminal that the Giants rank 31st in rushing yards per game with a high-end talent like Saquon Barkley on the roster. Barkley has only topped 100 yards rushing twice this season despite getting plenty of work in the passing game (62 catches, 530 yards), but the offensive line is not Sportsbook up holes for him, which negates any chance for Eli to throw downfield. The G-Men also rank 22nd in net yards per play in their four home games this season.
With all that said, I can’t endorse a spread pick for the Giants. They’re 0-4 SU and ATS at home this season and 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS in their last 12 at MetLife Stadium dating back to the start of last season.
Fitzpatrick or Winston, Still the Same Old Bucs
A lot was made about the quarterback changes from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Jameis Winston and back to Fitzpatrick and it’s all led to the same thing: losses. The Buccaneers are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games, with the losses coming by an average of 12.6 points per game. To be fair, three of those losses were by a field goal.
Offense hasn’t really been the issue this season (except for Week 10) for the Bucs as they rank first in passing yards per game and 12th in points per game at 25.8. But they lead the NFL in interceptions (19) and total turnovers at 25 to give them the worst turnover differential in the league. Giving up poor field position time and time again has resulted in Tampa Bay allowing 32.3 points per game, which is also the worst in the NFL.
It’s hard to find any positives for this team, which is why it shouldn’t be a surprise to see head coach Dirk Koetter near the top of the oddsboard for next NFL coach to be fired. The Bucs play sloppy football, turn the ball over and are second in total penalties so unless you’re a Tampa Bay fan or enjoy losing money, I can’t support a Buccaneers pick.
The Buccaneers are the Best OVER Bet in the NFL
The total opened at 51 and after trashing both of these teams, you would think I have this game pegged for a low-scoring tilt. Well, guess again – I think an OVER is coming in this matchup and here’s why: the OVER has hit in seven of the Buccaneers’ nine games this season with an average combined score of 58.1 points per game. Another reason I like the OVER is because of the volatility of Ryan Fitzpatrick and given how many times the Bucs have turned the ball over, I expect the Giants to have some short fields to work with on the offensive side of the ball.
My Pick Is…
To take the OVER. The Buccaneers offense can still put up points and since their defense is atrocious, I like this game to finish in the 60s. The Giants finally showed that their offense can put up some points in their road win in San Francisco and I expect them to finally unleash Saquon Barkley where he should end up scoring two touchdowns.
