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Pagano Favored to be 1st Coach Fired After Week 1 Embarrassment

The new NFL season may only be a week old but it’s never too early for a little head coach hot seat debate and after an embarrassing 46-9 defeat at the hands of the Rams, it’s Chuck Pagano who leads the odds in the first coach to be fired conversation.

If the Week 1 butt-kicking wasn’t enough, Pagano also took a justifiable beating in the media and the Twitter-sphere when he mistakenly referred to the Rams as the 49ers in his post-game presser.

Online shop Bovada has deemed Pagano a heavy -150 favorite to be the first coach to hit the bread line, with Marvin Lewis coming in at a distant second at +1000. Rumors have been swirling for a while now about Chuck’s job security but if the Colts’ opening-week performance was any indication of future results, the end could be very near for Pagano – I hope he saved up some of those gritcoins.

Fuel was added to the fire under Pagano’s precarious chair in the offseason when Colts owner Jim Irsay was openly shopping for a new coach, whiffing on an attempt to bring in Jon Gruden. The former Super Bowl-winning HC is pulling in a massive salary as a color commentator for ESPN but has been candid as recently as July about his longing to once again stroll the sidelines for an NFL team.

Additionally, new Colts general manager Chris Ballard is attempting to create a paradigm shift in Indianapolis after Ryan Grigson virtually ran the franchise into the ground and it’s very unlikely he’ll put up with the ignorance of Pagano for much longer. He’s looking for any excuse he can find to get a man of his own at the head-coaching helm and another blowout loss in Week 2 could do just the trick.

Other coaches in the conversation aren’t likely to be sacked any time soon and your money is best spent on the man who has had his foot in his mouth – and his challenge flag stuck in his pocket – ever since he arrived in Indianapolis five years ago.

Who Will Be The First NFL Head Coach Fired in 2017?

Odds as of September 13 at Bovada

  • Chuck Pagano -150
  • Marvin Lewis +1000
  • John Fox +1200
  • Todd Bowles +1200
  • Ben McAdoo +1200
  • Hue Jackson +1400
  • Jim Caldwell +1400
  • Bill O'Brien +1400
  • Mike Mularkey +1800
  • Sean Payton +2800
  • Jay Gruden +2800
  • Adam Gase +2800
  • Doug Pederson +2800
  • Ron Rivera +2800
  • Sean McDermott +2800
  • Doug Marrone +4000
  • Jason Garrett +4000
  • Bruce Arians +4000
  • Dan Quinn +5000
  • Mike Zimmer +5000
  • Dirk Koetter +6600
  • Kyle Shanahan +6600
  • Anthony Lynn +7500
  • Mike Tomlin +10000
  • Mike McCarthy +10000
  • Sean McVay +10000
  • Jack Del Rio +10000
  • John Harbaugh +10000
  • Vance Joseph +10000
  • Andy Reid +10000
  • Pete Carroll +10000
  • Bill Belichick +50000

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With the NFL season right around the corner, fans are filled with optimism and hope. Whether your team hoisted the Lombardi Trophy last season or just cleaned house, a new season is a blank slate.

Well, it is for some. One person who is entering the upcoming season far from comfortable in his position is New York Jets head coach Todd Bowles. Whether it is his fault or not, the Jets roster is filled with overpriced veterans still cashing in on their once bright star and a group of quarterbacks who do nothing but underwhelm.

With so many factors playing against Bowles, he has been pegged as the +150 favorite to be the first head coach fired this season. Unless the Jets make a massive turnaround on the field, it’s hard to imagine him surviving a full season after just barely retaining his job at the end of last year. Defense and a decent rushing attack will only get you so far in the modern NFL but Bowles doesn’t seem to have the tools to fix a dreadful offense.

The next best odds to be the first coach canned in 2017 belong to Hue Jackson. The Cleveland Browns have been the worst team in the NFL for years and the brass has not exactly shown a tendency to give their coaches much of a leash. However, the Browns did several things right this offseason and will be better than last season (it is almost impossible to be worse). As long as the Browns are moving in the right direction, Jackson should keep his job but that’s not a sure thing in the Factory of Sadness.

The coach who offers the best value right now is Chuck Pagano. The Indianapolis Colts are coming off back-to-back 8-8 seasons and have not won a playoff game since Pagano joined the team in 2012. The Colts can’t afford to waste Andrew Luck’s prime years toiling away in mediocrity. Whether it is all his fault or not, Pagano’s seat is heating up. 

Who Will Be The First NFL Head Coach Fired in 2017?

Odds as of August 3 at TopBet

  • Todd Bowles (NYJ) +150
  • Hue Jackson (CLE) +500
  • John Fox (CHI) +800
  • Chuck Pagano (IND) +800
  • Jim Caldwell (DET) +1000
  • Bill O’Brien (HOU) +1500
  • Sean Payton (NO) +2000
  • Sean McDermott (BUF) +2500
  • Sean McVay (LAR) +3000
  • Adam Gase (MIA) +3000
  • Kyle Shanahan (SF) +3500
  • Jason Garrett (DAL) +5000
  • Field +200
  • No Coach Fired Before Super Bowl 52 +800

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After 15 weeks of NFL action, we have seen two coaches get handed their pink slips. Rex Ryan is currently the favorite to be the next coach joining Jeff Fisher and Gus Bradley on the unemployment line according to BetOnline.


According to a report by Adam Schefter, Ryan is likely coaching his final games for the Bills, which shouldn’t be a surprise considering he has gone a collective 15-15 in two seasons in Buffalo. Since making the playoffs with the Jets in 2010, Ryan has gone 41-53 with no postseason appearances. We are unlikely to see Ryan fired before Black Monday, though, as the Bills’ offensive coordinator was already canned earlier this season and it is doubtful the Bills will want to promote Rob Ryan after firing his brother.

Shockingly, close behind Ryan is Marvin Lewis. Lewis has been the Cincinnati head coach since 2003 but the Bengals are 5-8-1 and have been eliminated from the playoffs. It is hard to imagine Cincy firing Lewis after five consecutive trips to the postseason before this year, but there are plenty of fans and pundits who believe the team can’t get it done with him at the helm.

Todd Bowles also sits near the top of the odds, as the head coach of the New York Jets has seen his team go from 10-6 last season to 4-10 through its first 14 games this season. The Jets rank in the bottom third in the league in passing yards, points scored and points allowed.

Who Will Be The NEXT NFL Head Coach Fired?

Odds as of December 19 at BetOnline

  • Rex Ryan (BUF) +225
  • Marvin Lewis (CIN) +400
  • Todd Bowles (NYJ) +450
  • Chip Kelly (SF) +550
  • Chuck Pagano (IND) +600
  • Doug Pederson (PHI) +850
  • Mike McCoy (SD) +1000
  • John Fox (CHI) +1000
  • Ron Rivera (CAR) +1400
  • Gary Kubiak (DEN) +1400


During Gus Bradley’s tenure of three-plus years with the Jacksonville Jaguars, the team has gone from mediocre at best to terrible. The Jags are a combined 14-40 with Bradley manning the sideline while failing to realize the potential of many high draft picks.

For this, and many other reasons, Bradley finds himself as a massive -150 favorite to be the first NFL coach fired this season. The Jaguars’ next five opponents have a combined 19-15 record and if they struggle through that ordinary lineup of opponents, we could see the once highly sought-after Bradley axed.

Next on the board is Chip Kelly at +400. The San Francisco 49ers head coach may be in his first season with the team, but that has never stopped the front office from firing coaches before. Despite being a supposed offensive mastermind, Kelly has led the 49ers to the worst offense in the NFL. There have also been a ridiculous number of rumors concerning his future employment in the NFL with several college teams possibly looking at the former Oregon coach.

Who Will Be The First NFL Head Coach Fired?

Odds as of October 26 at Bovada

  • Gus Bradley (JAX) -150
  • Chip Kelly (SF) +400
  • Mike McCoy (SD) +1000
  • Chuck Pagano (IND) +1000
  • John Fox (CHI) +1000
  • Jim Caldwell (DET) +1400
  • Mike Mularkey (TEN) +1600
  • Jeff Fisher (LA) +2000
  • Rex Ryan (BUF) +2500
  • Adam Gase (MIA) +3300
  • Sean Payton (NO) +3300
  • Jay Gruden (WAS) +3300
  • Hue Jackson (CLE) +5000


The San Diego Chargers are a mess, as the team has lost three games that it was leading at the two-minute warning. That is a level of futility that is hard to fathom. 

With the Chargers opening the season 1-4 and having a competent offensive coordinator who could lead the team for the rest of the season, Mike McCoy is a large +160 favorite to be the first coach axed this season. San Diego lost to the Oakland Raiders in Week 5, but has a quick turnaround to Week 6, as the Chargers play Thursday. Another loss and McCoy could be shown the door, which would give Ken Whisenhunt extra time to take over.

The next-closest coach on the hot seat, according to the odds, is Gus Bradley. The Jacksonville Jaguars continue to simply suck and rank in the bottom half in the NFL in almost every statistical category. Bradley was brought in to bring life to the defense after his run as defensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks, but the team is currently allowing 27.8 points per game with plenty of talent and minimal injuries.

Who Will Be The First NFL Head Coach Fired?

Odds as of October 12 at Bovada

  • Mike McCoy (SD) +160
  • Gus Bradley (JAX) +450
  • Chuck Pagano (IND) +500
  • John Fox (CHI) +750
  • Jim Caldwell (DET) +800
  • Adam Gase (MIA) +1400
  • Sean Payton (NO) +1600
  • Mike Mularkey (TEN) +1600
  • Rex Ryan (BUF) +2000
  • Jay Gruden (WAS) +2500
  • Jeff Fisher (LA) +2500
  • Chip Kelly (SF) +2500
  • Hue Jackson (CLE) +3300


The Indianapolis Colts have faltered their way to a 1-3 record to open the NFL season and the speculation of head coach Chuck Pagano’s job security is running rampant. The Colts organization likely gave Pagano a pass after going 8-8 last season with Andrew Luck’s injuries, but the quarterback is back and the team is possibly playing worse.

Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson have continually failed to provide Luck with consistent weapons or decent offensive line play during their tenures. Though the Colts are still in the playoff picture – thanks to playing in the laughably bad AFC South – Pagano is listed as a +150 favorite to be the first NFL head coach fired.

Chargers head coach Mike McCoy comes in second on the board at +400. The Chargers are 1-3 so far this season, which brings their record under McCoy to an abysmal 5-15 since the start of the 2015 season. The most telling number, though, is 3-12. That is San Diego’s record in games settled by eight points or less since the beginning of last year.

Had the Jacksonville Jaguars not beaten the Colts in London this past week, it may have been Gus Bradley to be the first coach fired. The Jags have a bye week coming up, followed by a stretch that sees three of their following four games come on the road. Since Bradley took over the head coaching duties of the Jags, the team has gone just 4-21 in road games.

Who Will Be The First NFL Head Coach Fired?

Odds as of October 5 at Bovada

  • Chuck Pagano (IND) +150
  • Mike McCoy (SD) +400
  • Gus Bradley (JAX) +500
  • Jim Caldwell (DET) +800
  • Rex Ryan (BUF) +1000
  • Sean Payton (NO) +1200
  • John Fox (CHI) +1400
  • Mike Mularkey (TEN) +1400
  • Jay Gruden (WAS) +1600
  • Adam Gase (MIA) +1600
  • Jeff Fisher (LA) +2500
  • Hue Jackson (CLE) +3300
  • Chip Kelly (SF) +5000


The seat in which Rex Ryan sits is becoming hotter by the minute. The Buffalo Bills axed offensive coordinator Greg Roman after their Week 2 loss and, in all honesty, he was a scapegoat. The Bills defense continues to flounder despite both Ryan brothers supposedly being defensive masterminds.

With the firings already beginning, Ryan is a heavy +150 favorite to be the first NFL coach sacked this season. Ryan has guided the Bills to a less than stellar 8-10 record since taking over before the 2015 season.

Next up on the oddsboard is Gus Bradley. The Jaguars organization has done a great job acquiring young talent over the past several seasons, but Bradley has failed to convert any of that into success. The Jags have started the season 0-2, which brings Bradley’s coaching record to 12-38 since the 2013 season.

After being the favorite just last week, Rams’ coach Jeff Fisher has seen his odds to be the first coach fired shift from +200 to +750. Maybe it was the completely underwhelming 9-3 win against the Seahawks or the fact that the team is considering giving him a contract extension, but it seems like Fisher’s job is safe for now.

Who Will Be The First NFL Head Coach Fired?

Odds as of September 21 at Bovada

  • Rex Ryan (BUF) +150
  • Gus Bradley (JAX) +500
  • Chuck Pagano (IND) +600
  • Jeff Fisher (LA) +750
  • Mike McCoy (SD) +1000
  • Dan Quinn (ATL) +1000
  • Jay Gruden (WSH) +1000
  • John Fox (CHI) +1200
  • Mike Mularkey (TEN) +1400
  • Jason Garrett (DAL) +2000
  • Jim Caldwell (DET) +2000
  • Sean Payton (NO) +2000
  • Adam Gase (MIA) +2500
  • Hue Jackson (CLE) +3300
  • Chip Kelly (SF) +5000


The change of scenery did not help the Rams. After a decade-plus of struggles in St. Louis, there was the potential that relocation to Los Angeles might help. But following a 28-0 loss to the less than mediocre San Francisco 49ers in Week 1, head coach Jeff Fisher is on the hot seat.

Jeff “I’m Not F***ing Going 7-9” Fisher is a +200 fave to be the first coach axed this NFL season. Fisher has gone a collective 27-38-1 during his tenure with the Rams while finishing 7-9 or worse in each season with the club. It also doesn’t help that Fisher and the front office mortgaged the future to select Jared Goff first overall and then promptly benched him behind Case Keenum and Sean Mannion.

The Chargers’ Mike McCoy is coming in just behind Fisher, with the fourth-year head coach coming off an abysmal 4-12 season in 2015. McCoy also needs to deal with an offense that will miss their best playmaker (Keenan Allen) while trying to quickly coach up the third overall pick in the draft (Joey Bosa) who didn’t sign until late August.

Rex Ryan at +700 is probably worth a look as well, as the supposed defensive guru has been coasting for years. Ryan led the Jets to two consecutive playoff appearances to start his head coaching career and has since gone 36-47 between the Jets and Buffalo Bills.

Who Will Be The First NFL Head Coach Fired?

Odds as of September 14 at Bovada

  • Jeff Fisher (LA) +200
  • Mike McCoy (SD) +500
  • Rex Ryan (BUF) +700
  • Dan Quinn (ATL) +900
  • Gus Bradley (JAX) +1000
  • Jason Garrett (DAL) +1200
  • Chuck Pagano (IND) +1200
  • Mike Mularkey (TEN) +1200
  • Jay Gruden (WAS) +1400
  • Jim Caldwell (DET) +1600
  • Sean Payton (NO) +2000
  • Adam Gase (MIA) +2000
  • Hue Jackson (CLE) +2500
  • Bill O’Brien (HOU) +3300
  • John Fox (CHI) +3300
  • Chip Kelly (SF) +5000


We have not even started the NFL regular season and we are talking about which head coach will be the first to get canned. Every season fans of the NFL bottom-dwellers wait with bated breath to see if their team will fire their coach and start all over.

And according to BetWay it may be San Diego Chargers fans who get to celebrate their coach’s firing first, as Mike McCoy is a 7/2 favorite to get his pink slip first this upcoming season. After back-to-back 9-7 seasons, the Chargers went a lousy 4-12 in 2015 thanks to an offense that couldn’t score and a defense that was mediocre at best.

With the quick decline in San Diego last year, you need to imagine that McCoy’s leash is not particularly long entering 2016.

Close behind McCoy though is Detroit Lions head coach Jim Caldwell at 4/1. In two seasons at the helm of the Lions, Caldwell has gone 18-14 and had an embarrassing collapse in their lone playoff appearance. It may be an uphill battle for Caldwell to keep his job, as the Lions' best player abruptly retired this offseason.

Despite reportedly having contract extension talks, Jeff Fisher comes in at 6/1 to lose his job first this season. Let’s face it, Fisher is a good coach if you want to go from bad to mediocre, but it’s unlikely your team will ever win more than nine games in a season with him leading the charge. However, the Rams moving to Los Angeles could be enough change for the organization for one season.

Who Will Be The First NFL Head Coach Fired?

Odds as of August 10 at BetWay

  • Mike McCoy (SD) 7/2
  • Jim Caldwell (DET) 4/1
  • Jeff Fisher (LA) 6/1
  • Gus Bradley (JAX) 12/1
  • Jason Garrett (DAL) 14/1
  • Sean Payton (NO) 14/1
  • Bill O’Brien (HOU) 16/1
  • Chuck Pagano (IND) 16/1
  • Dirk Koetter (TB) 20/1
  • Jay Gruden (WAS) 20/1
  • Mike Mularkey (TEN) 20/1
  • Adam Gase (MIA) 25/1
  • Chip Kelly (SF) 25/1
  • Doug Pederson (PHI) 25/1
  • Jack Del Rio (OAK) 25/1
  • John Fox (CHI) 25/1
  • Rex Ryan (BUF) 25/1
  • Ben McAdoo (NYG) 28/1
  • Hue Jackson (CLE) 33/1
  • Dan Quinn (ATL) 40/1
  • John Harbaugh (BAL) 40/1
  • Todd Bowles (NYJ) 40/1
  • Marvin Lewis (CIN) 50/1
  • Mike Zimmer (MIN) 50/1
  • Andy Reid (KC) 66/1
  • Gary Kubiak (DEN) 80/1
  • Mike Tomlin (PIT) 100/1
  • Ron Rivera (CAR) 100/1
  • Mike McCarthy (GB) 150/1
  • Bill Belichick (NE) 250/1
  • Bruce Arians (AZ) 250/1
  • Pete Carroll (SEA) 250/1