Favorites, like Israel Adesanya, are 4-2 in UFC title fights in Australia

UFC Australia Betting Trends: Favorites 4-2 In Title Fights

UFC 293 in Sydney, Australia marks the promotion's sixth pay-per-view event Down Under since 2015.

This time, it'll be middleweight champion Israel Adesanya putting his belt on the line vs challenger Sean Strickland. In the co-main, hometown hero Tai Tuivasa fights Alexander Volkov, while Manel Kape and Felipe dos Santos scrap on the main card.

With so much data from previous Aussie PPVs, it'd be a missed opportunity if we didn't derive some of the most tangible betting trends from past events. Here are the best UFC Australia betting trends we found.

UFC 293 Betting Odds & Main Card

UFC 293 Odds & Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Middleweight Title Fight – Israel Adesanya (-600) vs Sean Strickland (+450)
  • Heavyweight  – Tai Tuivasa (+187) vs Alexander Volkov (-225)
  • Flyweight – Manel Kape (-400) vs Felipe dos Santos (+300)
  • Heavyweight – Justin Tafa (-225) vs Austen Lane (+187)
  • Light Heavyweight – Tyson Pedro (-110) vs Anton Turkalj (-110)

UFC Australia Betting Trends

Here are the most noteworthy trends we discovered from the last five UFC pay-per-view events in Australia. Note that all data is from previous main cards only.

Favorites Win Big (17-7)

If you track main-card data from UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm onward, UFC favorites are 17-7. Underdogs are 5-19, and there has been one draw.

Method Of Victory: 56% Fights End Inside The Distance

14 of 25 main-card fights (56%) have ended inside the distance. There have been eight wins by KO/TKO, six wins by submission, 10 decision victories, and one draw.

Israel Adesanya 3-0 In Australia

The current middleweight champ is undefeated in Australia, boasting wins over Rob Wilkinson, Anderson Silva, and Robert Whittaker. He defeated Whittaker and Wilkinson by KO/TKO.

UFC Australia Betting Trends: Title Fight Data

There have been some epic title fights in Australia over the years.

Favorites 4-2 in Title Fights, KO most popular stoppage

  • Favorites to win or retain their UFC titles in Australia include: Joanna Jedrzeczyck (UFC 193), Israel Adesanya (UFC 243), Islam Makhachev (UFC 284), and Yair Rodriguez (UFC 284, interim championship).
  • Yoel Romero (+130 vs Luke Rockhold at UFC 224) and Holly Holm (+1000 vs Ronda Rousey at UFC 193) make up the two underdog winners. 
  • In title fights, there have been three KO/TKOs, two decisions, and one submission
  • Four of six title fights have ended inside the distance. Each of those bouts also ended UNDER 3.5 rounds. Keep that number in mind for live betting, as no title fight has ever ended in Rounds 4 or 5.

UFC Australia: Largest Betting Upsets

If you had a time machine, these are the bouts you'd want to go back and bet on.

Holly Holm (+1000) defeats Ronda Rousey (-2000) at UFC 193

Perhaps still the greatest, most shocking upset in UFC history, Holm's second-round head-kick KO of the once-unstoppable Rousey cashed at +1000 and sent the former champ into a downward spiral she never recovered from.

Serghei Spivac (+320) Defeats Tai Tuivasa (-410) at UFC 243

"Bam Bam" got quite a bit of helium at the start of his career and was expected to roll through unknown heavyweight Spivac. Instead, Spivac got Tuivasa down and submitted him in Round 2, cashing as a +320 underdog. This loss has aged well as Spivac recently fought top heavyweight contender Ciryl Gane.

Tuivasa will look to channel his inner 'dog this Saturday and upset Alexander Volkov.

Other UFC Australia Trends

  • Australians are 7-5 when fighting on home soil, while New Zealanders are 2-2.
  • Israel Adesanya (2-0), Tai Tuivasa (1-1), Tyson Pedro (1-0), and Justin Tafa (1-1) have all fought in Australia before.
  • Six of eight heavyweight fights have ended inside the distance, with four of those stoppages coming via first-round KO/TKO.