As the NFL playoffs head to the Divisional Round the stakes couldn't be higher. The playoff intensity skyrockets, as players, coaches and fans alike feel like their squad can almost reach out and grasp the Super Bowl trophy. Notoriously unpredictable, the Divisional Round offers a goldmine of opportunity for bettors. Let's delve into the latest betting trends and insights to help you beat the books this weekend.
Historical NFL Divisional Round Betting Trends
Understanding historical NFL Divisional Round betting trends can help even the most ardent sports bettor find a profitable edge. You can also use Odds Shark's historical betting database to build your own betting trends.
Beware of Heavy Favorites
Heavy favorites in the Divisional Round, especially those coming off a bye, may not be as safe a bet as most would think.
For those looking to cash in on a favorites parlay this week, the trends point to that being an awful play. Since 2002, teams who enter the Divisional Round off a bye are just 35-41-2 ATS. Sure, both the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers are juggernauts, ranking first and second respectively in total team DVOA. However, one-seeds have covered at just a 35% clip since 2002, and that number falls to only 29% when they're favored by ten points or less.
The other intriguing factor is that both one-seeds have covered just twice in the same Divisional Round since 2002. With the average one-seed failing to cover by 2.1 points per game over that span.
Buyer beware before betting on the Baltimore Ravens. Although they're a colossal number one seed this season, with one the NFL's greatest defenses and likely NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, the playoff trends are concerning. Remember, the Ravens have lost five of their last six playoff games outright, including two as home favorites.
Road Underdogs are Money in the Divisional Round
If you're eyeing underdogs this week, particularly road dogs, you might be onto a profitable trend.
Keep this incredible betting stat in mind before placing your wagers this week. Since 2002, road teams in the Divisional Round who failed to make last season's playoffs are an unbelievable 27-13 ATS. Both the Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers missed the last year's postseason.
This play design and execution on the throw from CJ Stroud…— Travis May (@FF_TravisM) January 13, 2024
Additionally, Divisional Round dogs of 7-to-11 points are 12-23 SU over that same span. It's time to sprinkle a half-unit on the Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers moneylines' just in case. Houston is currently +320 at Baltimore, while Green Bay is +340 in San Francisco.
Lions & Jared Goff Cash ATS
The Detroit Lions have been exceptional ATS of late, boasting a remarkable 35-17 ATS (67%) mark since 2021. If you hadn't heard, Lions quarterback Jared Goff is a man of the people, as the NFL's most profitable ATS pivot across the last six seasons.
Goff shines indoors with an equal mark of 35-17 ATS when playing in a dome throughout his career. Plus, the Lions went 10-5 ATS as favorites this season, and the Lions are 16-6 ATS as home favorites in their past 22 games at Ford Field. Goff made some superb throws to put in the nail in the Rams' coffin last week, and will likely have to do the same against Baker Mayfield and the upstart Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. The former first-overall pick has had an answer for every curve ball thrown at him this season, and looks poised to guide the Lions to their first NFC Championship game since 1991.
Texans vs Ravens Betting Trends
Packers vs 49ers Betting Trends
Buccaneers vs Lions Betting Trends
Chiefs vs Bills Betting Trends