As the NFL playoffs head to the Divisional Round the stakes couldn't be higher. The playoff intensity skyrockets, as players, coaches and fans alike feel like their squad can almost reach out and grasp the Super Bowl trophy. Notoriously unpredictable, the Divisional Round offers a goldmine of opportunity for bettors. Let's delve into the latest betting trends and insights to help you beat the books this weekend.
Historical NFL Divisional Round Betting Trends
Understanding historical NFL Divisional Round betting trends can help even the most ardent sports bettor find a profitable edge. You can also use Odds Shark's historical betting database to build your own betting trends.
Beware of Heavy Favorites
Heavy favorites in the Divisional Round, especially those coming off a bye, may not be as safe a bet as most would think.
For those looking to cash in on a favorites parlay this week, the trends point to that being an awful play. Since 2002, teams who enter the Divisional Round off a bye are just 35-41-2 ATS. Sure, both the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers are juggernauts, ranking first and second respectively in total team DVOA. However, one-seeds have covered at just a 35% clip since 2002, and that number falls to only 29% when they're favored by ten points or less.
The other intriguing factor is that both one-seeds have covered just twice in the same Divisional Round since 2002. With the average one-seed failing to cover by 2.1 points per game over that span.
Buyer beware before betting on the Baltimore Ravens. Although they're a colossal number one seed this season, with one the NFL's greatest defenses and likely NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, the playoff trends are concerning. Remember, the Ravens have lost five of their last six playoff games outright, including two as home favorites.
Road Underdogs are Money in the Divisional Round
If you're eyeing underdogs this week, particularly road dogs, you might be onto a profitable trend.
Keep this incredible betting stat in mind before placing your wagers this week. Since 2002, road teams in the Divisional Round who failed to make last season's playoffs are an unbelievable 27-13 ATS. Both the Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers missed the last year's postseason.
This play design and execution on the throw from CJ Stroud…
— Travis May (@FF_TravisM) January 13, 2024
Beautiful.
pic.twitter.com/dOQI83ml72
Additionally, Divisional Round dogs of 7-to-11 points are 12-23 SU over that same span. It's time to sprinkle a half-unit on the Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers moneylines' just in case. Houston is currently +320 at Baltimore, while Green Bay is +340 in San Francisco.
Lions & Jared Goff Cash ATS
The Detroit Lions have been exceptional ATS of late, boasting a remarkable 35-17 ATS (67%) mark since 2021. If you hadn't heard, Lions quarterback Jared Goff is a man of the people, as the NFL's most profitable ATS pivot across the last six seasons.
Former Ram Jared Goff with a dart to former Ram Josh Reynolds.
— NFL (@NFL) January 15, 2024
📺: #LARvsDET on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/BMG9C6CXOw
Goff shines indoors with an equal mark of 35-17 ATS when playing in a dome throughout his career. Plus, the Lions went 10-5 ATS as favorites this season, and the Lions are 16-6 ATS as home favorites in their past 22 games at Ford Field. Goff made some superb throws to put in the nail in the Rams' coffin last week, and will likely have to do the same against Baker Mayfield and the upstart Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. The former first-overall pick has had an answer for every curve ball thrown at him this season, and looks poised to guide the Lions to their first NFC Championship game since 1991.
Texans vs Ravens Betting Trends
- Ravens are 14-3 against the spread in the first-half this season
- Ravens are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games played
- Baltimore is 9-1 SU in its last ten games as a favorite (average scoring margin: 16.2)
- Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a favorite
- Ravens are a perfect 7-0 SU against the Texans
- Houston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog
Packers vs 49ers Betting Trends
- Packers are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games
- Green Bay is 4-0 both SU & ATS in its last four games as an underdog
- The OVER is 10-4 in the last 14 Packers-49ers meetings, and 6-2 in the last eight 49ers home games vs Packers
- 49ers are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games in January
- San Francisco has won 16 games by 12 points or more in their last 22 games at home
- San Francisco is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 games against the NFC
Buccaneers vs Lions Betting Trends
- Buccaneers are 8-1 ATS on the road this season
- Baker Mayfield is 3-0 ATS in his playoff career, with seven touchdowns and one interception
- Bucs are 4-11 ATS vs the Lions in their last 15 meetings
- Lions are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Buccaneers
- Detroit is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games at home
- Detroit is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games vs the NFC (average scoring margin: 5.5)
Chiefs vs Bills Betting Trends
- Chiefs are 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog
- Chiefs are just 4-10 SU in their last 14 games on the road in Buffalo
- Kansas City is 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog
- The UNDER is 5-1 in Kansas City's last six games played in Buffalo
- Buffalo is 20-4 SU in its last 24 home games (average scoring margin: 12.42)
- Bills are 14-1 SU, 9-5-1 ATS in their past 15 games as a playoff favorite
