NFL Receiving Leader Odds: Stefon Diggs Is Great Value

There’s been a lot of volatility in the race to be the NFL receiving yards leader lately. Over the last 10 seasons, no player has led the league in receiving yards in back-to-back seasons and only two players have led the league twice in that span: Julio Jones (2015 and 2018) and Antonio Brown (2014 and 2017).

But with only a single week done on the season, there’s little else to go on for oddsmakers. That’s why 2021 receiving yards leader Cooper Kupp is second on Sportsbook’s receiving yards oddsboard at +800. Justin Jefferson, currently leading the NFL in receiving yards, tops the oddsboard at +600.

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Here’s a breakdown of 2022 NFL receiving leader odds with some of our favorite picks:

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2022 NFL Receiving Yards Leader Odds?

Odds as of September 13 at Sportsbook

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2022 NFL Receiving Leader Odds: Favorites

Justin Jefferson (+600)

Before the season began, we believed Jefferson was an easy bet to lead the league in receiving yards. After all, the Vikings WR put up more receiving yards before turning 23 than anyone else in NFL history. We also believed that his number of receptions would go up with a new offensive coordinator. Both have come true, at least after Week 1.

Jefferson made nine receptions in Minnesota’s opener for an average of 20.4 yards per reception. Both of those numbers are up from the 6.4 receptions and 15.0 yards per reception he averaged in games in 2021. While the Sportsbook-week numbers will certainly regress, there’s no reason to suggest Jefferson can’t push to hit 2,000 receiving yards on the year.

While +600 is a considerable drop from +850 before the season began, it still represents a $600 profit on a $100 winning bet.

Cooper Kupp (+800)

Kupp had a heck of a 2021 season for the Rams with 145 receptions (8.5 per game) and an average of 8.5 yards per reception. In the Sportsbook game of the season, he made 13 grabs and averaged 13.0 yards per reception. Ridiculous.

Like Jefferson, there’s no doubt those numbers will regress a bit through the rest of the season, but it’s clear that Kupp’s 2021 season wasn’t a fluke. He is one of the elite receivers in the game. It’s not hard to imagine him challenging for the most receiving yards and even being the first repeat Sportsbook in a decade.

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NFL Receiving Leader Odds Best Bet: Stefon Diggs (+1200)

Both Jefferson and Kupp are at the top of the receiving yards oddsboard and leaderboard after monster Sportsbook weeks. Both put up numbers that probably can’t be sustained through the course of the season. But Buffalo’s Stefan Diggs can.

In a Week 1 win over the Rams, Diggs made eight receptions for an average of 15.3 yards per catch. Not to mention, he made All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey look absolutely pedestrian throughout the game.

Diggs’ performance this past weekend could easily be maintained for the year with the Bills, who are the favorites to win the Super Bowl. His numbers would put him on pace for 2,081 yards on the year.

At +1100, Diggs represents a ton of value for a player who’s led the league in receiving yards (2020) and is on pace to challenge for the most receiving yards this year.

2022 NFL Receiving TD Leader Odds?

Odds as of September 13 at Sportsbook

NFL Receiving TD Leader Best Bet: Justin Jefferson (+500)

At +500, you could make $500 on a $100 winning bet for Justin Jefferson to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns. And while he has yet to do that over his career, he’s only in his third season. It typically takes a few years before a wide receiver hits his peak. Their age 23 season is when we normally see that player explode and it just so happens the 2022 season is Justin Jefferson’s age 23 season.

We already went over his receiving stats in terms of receptions and yards per reception. But we haven’t talked about his touchdowns. He’s already put up two on the year, co-leading the NFL with a handful of other players.

The Vikings have an easier schedule than most NFL teams. Their strength of schedule is 16th in the league, well ahead of some of his competition for most receiving TDs. Kupp’s Rams are 31st and Ja’Marr Chase’s Bengals are 26th. That easier schedule should allow Jefferson to put up more TDs than his competition and make him the best bet here.

How To Read NFL Season-Long Player Props

A prop is a bet made on the occurrence or non-occurrence of certain events or milestones for individual players or teams. These can range from which player will have the most receiving yards or rushing yards to who will be the NFL touchdown leader in 2022. There are also specific props for games like who will score a touchdown or OVER/UNDER passing yards for a QB.

When you check out your football sportsbook of choice, you’ll see prop odds like so:

NFL Offensive Player Receiving Yards:

Cooper Kupp -500
Justin Jefferson +500
Davante Adams +700

When you make a moneyline bet, you’d see favorites represented by the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+). In this case, because this is a prop bet, you would consider Cooper Kupp the fave since he has the lowest odds. The rest are underdogs.

Let’s say you think Kupp is going to record the most receiving yards and you bet $100 on him. You’d get a payout of $120 – your original $100 is returned along with your winnings of $20 if you’re right. Check out our Odds Calculator to see what you’d win based on the odds and amount bet.

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