NFL 2023 Thanksgiving Day Expert Picks

NFL Thanksgiving Day Picks: Lions, Cowboys Among Best Bets

It’s time for the annual tradition of shoving food in our faces, ignoring our families and betting on Thanksgiving NFL football.

The NFL will host a triple-header of Week 12 gridiron action on Thursday. Here’s a look at what’s on tap to kick off on Thanksgiving Day:

Lions -7.5 vs Packers

Cowboys -11 vs Commanders

49ers -7 vs Seahawks

Before you lock in your Turkey Day wagers, be sure to check out some Thanksgiving football prop bets and Thanksgiving football betting trends as well. 

Thanksgiving NFL Pick: Lions -7.5

The Lions have been coverage kings against the Packers lately, covering the spread in their last four meetings. Earlier this year, they handily covered with a 14-point victory.

I think the Lions will be back to their covering ways on Thanksgiving Thursday by shutting down Green Bay's running attack. The Lions have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards in the NFL so far, while the Packers rank bottom half in rushing efficiency. The Packers have been trying to find a balance between AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones all season, but it just hasn't worked out. Green Bay hasn't had a running back notch over 75+ yards in six weeks.

Add in Green Bay injuries to De'Vondre Campbell, Jaire Alexander, and Christian Watson, and I think the Lions are the easy bet to win and cover.

Check out our full Lions vs Packers odds and preview here

Thanksgiving NFL Pick: Cowboys -11

Every fibre of my being is urging me to fade the Cowboys in this spot. Betting Dallas as a massive favorite on Thanksgiving is a mistake many have made before. But, when I look at all my usual handicapping metrics, they're all telling me to ride with Dak and the lads.

If you look at Net Expected Points Added per play, the Cowboys have been the second-best team in football this season (+0.23), while the Commanders grade out at 26th (-0.11). That's the type of discrepancy that earns an two-possession line.

As well, the Cowboys are built to tear apart Washington's defense. Dallas ranks out as the fifth-best passing attack in football this year, averaging 255.5 yards through the air. The commanders are especially weak against a pass-heavy attack like that, letting up the third-most air yards per game (258). Look for Prescott and CeeDee Lamb to connect early and often on their way to a cover on Thursday.

Read our full Commanders vs Cowboys preview here.

Thanksgiving NFL Pick: Seahawks Team Total UNDER 19.5

I think the 49ers are going to win this one. They're back playing good football after a slide of three-straight losses earlier this year. But, I'm not particularly sure they'll cover a seven-point spread, so I've found another way to profit.

I'm fairly confident the Seahawks will fall short of their team total 19.5 points on Thanksgiving. Seattle's offense has averaged just 17.5 points per game in their last six contests, with Geno Smith really falling off. The Seattle slinger has seven touchdowns to six interceptions in that time.

The 49ers' defense has been on fire recently, too. They've held four of their last six opponents to under 20 points, averaging 16.5 points against per game in that time.

Our full Seahawks vs 49ers preview is available here.

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