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The Pick Six: Thanksgiving Edition

Pick Six Week 13 Thanksgiving Edition

Coming off a slightly profitable Week 12 thanks to the Seahawks moneyline, it’s time for the annual tradition of shoving food in my face, ignoring my family and betting on Thanksgiving NFL football.

In a special edition of The Pick Six for Thanksgiving Day, I’ve decided to open up to props for some of my picks and with my success on Twitter with touchdown scorers, you know I have to include some of those bets. Fair warning that touchdown scorer props are very volatile and should never be viewed as locks so keep that in mind before tailing.

This year’s Thanksgiving slate isn’t as enticing as last year’s but Odds Shark will be live-streaming coverage of the Lions-Bears with Guys & Bets and I’ll be part of the action and doing drive-by-drive bets for the folks at home.

Don’t forget to check out our contest of Pros vs Joe, where our very own Joe Osborne will put his handicapping skills to the test vs former NFL Pro Bowlers Patrick Willis and Steven Jackson. 

Here we go with The Pick Six: Week 13 - Thanksgiving Day Edition!

All lines courtesy of BetOnline.

Bears -3.5 vs Lions (-120)

This line is a joke, right? The Lions are only getting 3.5 points with the QB tandem of Jeff Driskel and David Blough? Driskel may not even play and Blough may get his first game action against a ferocious Bears defense. Not a great scenario for the Lions.

Of the Bears’ five wins this season, only one was decided by three points or less, when they beat the Broncos in Week 2. When these teams faced each other last year for Thanksgiving, it took a last-minute pick-six from Bears CB Eddie Jackson to seal the cover and that was against starter Matthew Stafford. Considering Lions quarterbacks have been sacked 11 times in the last three games, I fully expect a lot of Detroit turnovers and will be in-game betting it on each Lions drive.

Anthony Miller – Bears – Anytime Touchdown (+250)

With 12 catches and 20 targets in just the last two games, Anthony Miller is starting to become a reliable receiving option for the Bears. He has yet to catch a touchdown this season and was banged up earlier this year, which made it difficult to poach targets from the likes of Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel.

That being said, he caught seven touchdowns last season and in two games last year vs the Lions, he had nine catches on 10 targets and one touchdown. At +250, the value is decent because Gabriel isn’t expected to play and the receiving options for Mitch Trubisky are dwindling.

Bears vs Lions Game Center

UNDER 47 Bills-Cowboys (-110)

With two defenses that have been fairly strong this season, this total feels a tad high and likely should be closer to 42 or 43. Neither team is allowing over 20 points per game and the Cowboys defense has shown up vs winning teams, holding the Saints to 12 points, the Patriots to 13 points and the Eagles to 10 points (Philadelphia had a winning record at the time).

From Week 5 onward, the Bills offense has been known to sputter, scoring 20 points or less in five of their last eight games. I think Cole Beasley will catch a TD and maybe QB Josh Allen runs one in but there won’t be enough offense in this game to surpass 47 points.

Cole Beasley – Bills – Anytime Touchdown (+300)

Catching a touchdown in four of the last six games, Cole Beasley is my favorite touchdown scorer pick for Thanksgiving. He is second on the team in targets behind John Brown and I fully expect Brown to be shadowed by Cowboys CB Byron Jones all game.

If the Bills get in the red zone, they can be fairly predictable with Josh Allen and Frank Gore runs, but they have shown they will throw to Beasley in this scenario, as all four of his scores have come with Buffalo deep in enemy territory. The value is great for Beasley considering Brown’s odds are at +140 and he’s the No. 1 option. Also, while I hate using motivation for handicapping, the former Cowboy revenge angle is in play.

Bills vs Cowboys Game Center

Saints-Falcons OVER 48.5 (-110)

I expect this game to be much different than the last matchup when the Falcons stunned the Saints and limited them to nine points, which represents New Orleans’ lowest offensive output with Drew Brees at quarterback since Week 12 in 2015 vs the Texans.

The Falcons defense also looks to have regressed to the norm after giving up 35 points to the Bucs and has allowed 27 points per game this season. Last year’s total for this Thanksgiving matchup was set at 60 and the Saints are gunning for the top spot in the NFC so I see them scoring at least 30 points, which is great for the OVER. I also still believe in Atlanta’s offense and think it can put up at least 20 points at home vs a division rival.

Jared Cook – Saints – Anytime Touchdown (+200)

Catching a touchdown in four of the Saints’ last five games, Jared Cook is having a resurgence in New Orleans, which is unconventional as the Saints haven’t properly used a tight end in their offense since they traded Jimmy Graham. The lone game in which Cook didn’t catch a touchdown among those five was vs the Falcons but he still had 10 targets with six catches and 74 yards receiving.

It’s rare to get a heavily used Saints’ offensive player at decent odds so based on the recent track record and the value at +200, Cook is hard to pass up in this scenario.

For the long-shot bettors, if you’re looking for big odds on a touchdown scorer in this game, take QB Drew Brees at +1200. He has yet to rush one in this season but he had four scores in 2018, including two rushing scores when these teams met in Atlanta in Week 3 last season.

Falcons vs Saints Game Center

Follow me on Twitter at @GDAWG5000 for more betting analysis and in-game plays and on Sundays for my weekly touchdown scorer prop picks. Happy Thanksgiving and happy betting!