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NFL Thanksgiving Day Betting Primer

Betting on the NFL Thanksgiving Day football games is as American as a fist fight at the mall on Black Friday. I’m sure some of you will be busy planning the stampede at your local Walmart when they open for Black Friday to save 20 percent on the DVD box set of the complete series of King of Queens starring Kevin James, but I’ll be leading the charge in trying to help you cash in on Thanksgiving. 

Since 2004 on Thanksgiving, favorites are 33-13 ATS (71.7%)

Let’s get down to business! Thanksgiving has many traditions, and backing betting favorites on Turkey Day is a great one. Since 2004 on Thanksgiving, favorites are 33-13 ATS (71.7%). The trend of favorites covering on Thanksgiving is a long-standing one, as they’ve gone 54-31 ATS (63.5%) since 1984.

Another tradition in Thanksgiving Day games is that they tend to get more out of hand than a group of dudes fighting over discounted Axe body spray at that same Walmart. Since 2000, 32 of 54 games have been decided by double digits, so don’t be shocked if we see a blowout or two.

Stats and Trends for Thanksgiving Day:

Houston at Detroit
  • These teams rank 28th and 25th in opponent third-down conversion percentage.
  • The Texans are last in yards allowed per rush attempt.
  • The Texans are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Texans' last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 55.33)
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Lions' last 11 games at home. (Avg combined score: 57.27)
  • The Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after consecutive ATS wins.
  • The Lions are 4-15 SU in their last 19 games.
  • The Lions are 0-8 SU in their last eight games as home underdogs.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Lions' last nine games on Thursday.
  • The Lions are 15-4 SU in their last 19 games at home vs teams with losing records.
Washington at Dallas
  • Dallas is sixth in yards per play at home compared to 30th on the road. Washington ranks a surprising fourth in yards per play over the last three games.
  • Washington is tied for sixth in yards per play allowed. Dallas is 24th.   
  • Washington ranks fifth in opponent red-zone TD scoring %. Dallas is 26th in this category offensively.
  • Dallas ranks 29th in opponent third-down conversion %. Washington is ninth.
  • The Cowboys are 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Cowboys are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs their division at home.
  • Washington is 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games vs divisional opponents.
  • Washington is 0-6 SU in its last six games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 11.5)
  • Washington is 1-7 SU in its last eight games on Thursday.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Cowboys' last five games. (Avg combined score: 42.0)
  • The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of Washington's last 10 games vs the Cowboys. (Avg combined score: 50.2)