Load up your plate with turducken and wham, bam your way through Thursday's fantastic NFL Thanksgiving Day slate like John Madden.
Betting on the NFL Thanksgiving Day football games is part of the tradition, with three contests to feast on (and bet on) during the celebration. Let’s bite into the betting trends of turkey day! Teams that head into the matchup favored usually leave more grateful than they arrived. Since 2004, Thanksgiving favorites are 46-8 SU (85%), and 36-18 ATS (66.6%). Intriguingly, favorites of 10 or more points are 8-0 ATS since 2005, and 11-0 ATS in the last 30 years.
If you're thinking of playing totals on turkey day, think again. Vegas seems to have this one figured out, as NFL OVERS are 26-26 on Thanksgiving since 2005.
Thanksgiving Football Betting Trends:
- Packers are 3-3 SU and ATS in their last 6 Thanksgiving Day games
- Packers are 2-11 ATS vs. Lions since 2017
- Green Bay is 12-7-1 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog
- Packers are 9-13 ATS in last 22 NFC North road games
- Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games
- Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
- Detroit is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
- Lions have won 4 straight games vs. Packers
- Detroit is 8-10 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005
- Jared Goff is 20-9 ATS at Ford Field since 2020, most profitable QB in the NFL
- Goff is 11-3 ATS vs. NFC North as Lions QB
The Detroit Lions are off to their best start since 1962 and aim to stake their claim as contenders with a Thanksgiving Day victory. Dan Campbell's Lions smacked the Packers 34-20 in Week 4 and would sweep Green Bay in back-to-back year's with the win. Detroit have won seven of their past eight contests and will look to keep the momentum going after falling to the Buffalo Bills 28-25 in last year's Thanksgiving Day extravaganza.
"This year, these @Lions are different." 🦁 Join us Thanksgiving Day for a classic NFC North matchup.
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 21, 2023
📺: Packers vs Lions, Thanksgiving Day 12:30p ET on FOX pic.twitter.com/7t9b8jmxeG
Jordan Love and the Packers have struggled outside of Lambeau Field this season, going just 1-4 on the road. The Packers have won two of their last three games, and managed to defeat the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday with a late Love touchdown pass. However, with a lengthy injury report - and the likes of top corner Jaire Alexander, linebacker De'Vondre Campbell, and Aaron Jones likely to miss this contest - the Packers could struggle to stay in the game.
Priority number one for the Matt Lafleur's team will be stopping the Lions dominate rushing attack. David Montgomery and co. rushed for 211 yards in their first meeting and Detroit has averaged nearly 140 rushing yards per game. If Green Bay can't stop the run, this one could be over quickly.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 8 games when playing on the road against Dallas
- Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
- Double-digit divisional underdogs are 0-3 ATS this year
- Washington is 10-14 ATS in last 24 games coming off a loss
- Dak Prescott is 29-11-1 ATS as a favorite of 6 or more points in his career
- Dallas is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 NFC East home games
- Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
- Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Washington and Dallas renew their NFC East rivalry on Thanksgiving Day. The Commanders and Cowboys have met ten times on turkey day with the boys in blue coming out victorious in 8 of 10 matchups. Mike McCarthy's Cowboys have blown the doors off each of their last two opponents, winning by a combined score of 82-27.
THE PICK-6 KING DARON BLAND DOES IT AGAIN.
— NFL (@NFL) November 19, 2023
📺: #DALvsCAR on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/jckqnJwdb2 pic.twitter.com/GQhL47ZBnd
While a brutal 31-19 loss to the pitiful New York Giants has Washington on the backfoot heading into Thanksgiving. Giving up four sacks and turning the ball over six times is a surefire way to get your coach on the hotseat. Sam Howell has been hot and cold this season, as the former 5th-round pick has looked like a certified starting quarterback one week before capitulating the next. Howell's thrown for an NFL-high 3038 yards with 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions so far. He's also been on the run all year, as the Commanders have surrendered 51 sacks already.
Ultimately, the Cowboys vaunted pass-rush and opportunistic defense will be the difference in this Thanksgiving Day NFC East showdown. Plus, our expert picks love Jerry Jones' team to cover.
- San Francisco is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games
- San Francisco is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
- Night favorites are 12-4 ATS since 2005 on Thanksgiving
- 49ers went 7-0 SU & ATS vs. NFC West last season
- San Francisco has won 9 games SU vs. NFC West
- Home underdogs are 2-27 SU on Thanksgiving since 2000
- Seattle is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog
- Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
- Seattle is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against San Francisco
After your game of backyard football with the family, digest your second (or third) helping of turkey with a splendid NFC West encounter.
San Francisco started the season on a tear, and look to have rounded back into form. Mr. Irrelevant turned into Mr. Perfect passer rating last week as Brock Purdy went completed 21-of-25 passes for 333 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 27-14 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Kyle Shanahan's offense ranks third in the NFL in total yards, and Purdy has looked fantastic with left tackle Trent Williams and offensive weapon Deebo Samuel back in the fold.
Seattle will have to pull some tricks out of their hats as they fight for a playoff spot in the NFC. Geno Smith is banged up and has struggled against the 49ers. He's 0-3 both SU and ATS versus San Francisco in his career, failing to cover the spread by an average of 8.3 points per game. The health of Smith is the major question mark heading into this contest. He almost certainly won't be at 100% after injuring his elbow on Sunday against the Rams. Seattle may also be without Tyler Lockett, Jamal Adams and Kenneth Walker as are unlikely to take the field.
Without knowing more on the status of so many key Seahawks players, Seattle is a tough team to back in this one. However, our computer picks like Pete Carroll's team to come away with the straightup upset.
