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2021 NFL Thanksgiving Football Betting Trends

NFL Thanksgiving betting trends and stats for Thursday's games.

Betting on the NFL Thanksgiving Day football games is as American as a fist fight at the mall on Black Friday. And while you plan your Black Friday stampede strategy, we’re here to help you make a little bit of cash on the football part.

What could be better than sitting in front of the TV for 11 straight hours of football while gorging on turducken, mashed potatoes and several varieties of pie? Making money while doing it.

Since 2003 on Thanksgiving, favorites are 35-13 ATS (72.9%)

Let’s get down to business! Thanksgiving has many traditions, and backing betting favorites on Turkey Day is a great one. Since 2003 on Thanksgiving, favorites are 35-13 ATS (72.9%). The trend of favorites covering on Thanksgiving is a long-standing one, as they’ve gone 55-32 ATS (63.2%) since 1984.

Another tradition in Thanksgiving Day games is that they tend to get more out of hand. Since 2000, 34 of 56 games have been decided by double digits, so don’t be shocked if we see a blowout or two.

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Thanksgiving Football Betting Trends:

Chicago at Detroit
  • Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Chicago is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games as the favorite (Average score margin: 6.11)
  • Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games vs its conference
  • Chicago is 3-0 SU in its last 3 games on Thursdays (Average score margin: 4.0)
  • Detroit is 0-13-1 SU in its last 14 games as the underdog (Average score margin: -13.07)
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of Detroit’s last 4 games vs its conference (Average combined score: 42.75)
  • Detroit is 1-3 ATS in its last 4 games against teams with losing records
  • Detroit is 0-7 SU in its last 7 games after losing its most recent game at home (Average score margin: -18.43)
  • Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games vs Detroit (Average score margin: 5.71)
  • Chicago is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games vs Detroit
  • The total has gone OVER in three of Chicago’s last 4 games vs Detroit (Average combined score: 49.0)

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The Bears take on the Lions in the annual snooze fest that is the Lions appearing on Thanksgiving Day – a tradition we could do without continuing. At least this one is a divisional matchup, but both teams have struggled mightily this season. 

Andy Dalton will get the start for Chicago in place of the injured Justin Fields while Jared Goff will return from an injury that kept him out last week for the Lions.

Don’t expect a lot of points, efficient offense or quality defense in this one. Just sit back with a cold beverage and enjoy the fact that there’s football being played at 12:30 ET on a Thursday.

Las Vegas at Dallas
  • Las Vegas is 45-105 SU in its last 150 games on the road (Average score margin: -7.94)
  • Las Vegas is 1-3 ATS in its last 4 games as the underdog
  • Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 road games as the underdog
  • Las Vegas is 0-3 SU in its last 3 games against teams with winning records (Average score margin: -17.67)
  • Dallas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
  • Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
  • Dallas is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games against teams with losing records (Average score margin: 9.0)
  • Dallas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with losing records
  • Las Vegas is 3-1 ATS in its last 4 games on the road vs Dallas
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of Las Vegas’s last 4 games vs Dallas (Average combined score: 38.75)
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of Las Vegas’s last 4 games as the underdog vs Dallas (Average combined score: 37.0)

You might need a few of those cold beverages to get through the Bears-Lions game, but you will be rewarded at the end with a better matchup down in Dallas. 

The Cowboys are coming off their worst offensive performance of the season and take on a Raiders team fading fast after a hot start. Las Vegas has lost three in a row after starting 5-2.

We expect many more points in this game than the first one, although Dallas could be without top weapons Amari Cooper (already ruled out) and CeeDee Lamb (questionable).

Buffalo at New Orleans
  • Buffalo is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Buffalo is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
  • Buffalo is 25-6 SU in its last 31 games as the favorite (Average score margin: 9.35)
  • Buffalo is 10-3 SU in its last 13 road games as the favorite (Average score margin: 11.08)
  • New Orleans is 30-11 SU in its last 41 games at home (Average score margin: 6.93)
  • The total has gone OVER in New Orleans’ last 3 games at home (Average combined score: 54.33)
  • New Orleans is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games as the underdog
  • New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 prime-time games
  • The total has gone OVER in New Orleans’ last 4 games against teams with losing records (Average combined score: 57.0)
  • Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games vs New Orleans (Average score margin: -21.0)
  • Buffalo is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games vs New Orleans

The night caps off with the Buffalo Bills visiting the New Orleans Saints in a battle of two teams desperately needing a win. While the temperature drops up in Buffalo, the heat is on the football team, which looked like the lone powerhouse in the AFC just a few weeks ago. The Bills have fallen to 6-4 and second in the AFC East after losing two of their last three games and questions are popping up about quarterback Josh Allen’s play and the lacking run game.

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Meanwhile, the beaten-up and offensive-talent starved Saints should get Alvin Kamara back for this game after he missed each of the last two games. But the offense’s ceiling is limited with some combination of Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill at quarterback. The Saints are 5-5, have lost three straight games and get Buffalo, Dallas and Tampa Bay in three of their next four. Desperate times in the Bayou.