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NFL Thanksgiving Day Betting Primer

Betting on the NFL Thanksgiving Day football games is as American as a fist fight at the mall on Black Friday. I’m sure some of you will be busy planning the stampede at your local Walmart when they open for Black Friday to save 20 percent on the DVD box set of the complete series of King of Queens starring Kevin James, but I’ll be leading the charge in trying to help you cash in on Thanksgiving. 

Since 2005 on Thanksgiving, favorites are 30-11 ATS (73.1%)

Let’s get down to business! Thanksgiving has many traditions, and backing betting favorites on Turkey Day is a great one. Since 2005 on Thanksgiving, favorites are 30-11 ATS (73.1%). The trend of favorites covering on Thanksgiving is a long-standing one, as they’ve gone 53-29 ATS (64.5%) since 1984.

Another tradition in Thanksgiving Day games is that they tend to get more out of hand than a group of dudes fighting over discounted Axe body spray at that same Walmart. Since 2000, 32 of 51 games have been decided by double digits, so don’t be shocked if we see a blowout or two.

All lines courtesy of BetOnline.

Stats and Trends for Thanksgiving Day:

Chicago Bears -5.5 vs Detroit Lions OU 37
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Bears' last seven games on the road. (Avg combined score: 34.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Lions' last six games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Bears' last eight games vs the Lions. (Avg combined score: 40.13)
  • The Bears are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Lions are 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Bears' last six games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Bears are 3-13 SU in their last 16 games vs their division on the road.
  • The Lions are 0-6 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Lions' last four games at home. (Avg combined score: 63.75)
Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys -6.5 OU 47
  • The Cowboys are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games after a loss.
  • The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Thanksgiving Day games.
  • The Bills are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Bills' last seven games on the road. (Avg combined score: 37.43)
  • The Bills are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after consecutive ATS wins.
  • The Cowboys are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games at home.
  • The Cowboys are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games at home in November.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Bills' last seven games vs the Cowboys. (Avg combined score: 31.57)
New Orleans Saints -7 vs Atlanta Falcons OU 48.5
  • The Saints are tied for fourth in turnover differential. The Falcons are 27th.
  • The Saints are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The total has gone OVER in three of the Saints' last four games on the road. (Avg combined score: 47.75)
  • The Saints are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road after covering in their most recent road game.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Saints' last six games at night.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Falcons' last seven games at night.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Saints' last 10 games on the road vs the Falcons.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Falcons' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 45.8)
  • The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs.
  • The Falcons are 7-2 SU in their last nine games vs their division at home.

For my picks, be sure to check out Pros vs Joe, a Thankshandicapping contest between myself, Steven Jackson and Patrick Willis that will air on Thursday’s episode of Guys & Bets.