What a crazy week for MMA.
With Paulo Costa out due to injury, Khamzat Chimaev will fight former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman in a three-round fight on October 21. This bout marks Usman's middleweight debut, and the winner likely gets the next title shot vs Sean Strickland.
Chimaev is a -275 favorite over Usman, who comes in as a +225 betting underdog.
Khamzat Chimaev vs Kamaru Usman Betting Odds
Odds as of Oct. 20
Our odds calculator suggests Chimaev's -275 odds equate to an implied win probability of 73.33%, meaning a $100 bet on him pays out $136.36. Usman's +225 underdog odds give him an implied win probability of 30.77%, and a $100 bet on him pays out $325.
For more information on how to interpret these numbers, including the Chimaev vs Usman odds, head over to our How to Bet on UFC page. Also, feel free to visit our main UFC betting news page for all the latest happenings from inside the Octagon.
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Khamzat Chimaev vs Kamaru Usman Betting Preview: Who Wins This Wild Bout?
It's crazy staring at Usman facing such a steep line as a +225 'dog, but it's an accurate placement. "The Nigerian Nightmare" hasn't looked very vicious over his last two fights (both losses to Leon Edwards).
Usman will need all the venom he can muster against a psycho killer like Chimaev.
How To Bet Usman
It's been five years since Usman fought a three-round fight, so it's difficult to anticipate his strategy. The 36-year-old got lulled to sleep at UFC 286 and found himself stuck swinging at air while Edwards did damage.
I'd still favor Chimaev during this bout's inevitable wrestling exchanges, but a longshot bet on Kamaru by decision tickles my fancy. If you're on the Usman train, you'll take him straight up. I'm fine with that bet, but remember how much younger and hungrier "Borz" is.
How to Bet Chimaev
Remember Chimaev vs Gilbert Burns at UFC 273? I'm thinking we might see a repeat of that, or at least something similar to Usman vs Colby Covington 1 at UFC 245.
When two esteemed wrestlers, such as Usman and Chimaev, meet in the cage, fans often witness an epic striking match. And if that's the case, I'll be all over Chimaev to win by KO/TKO.
Think of Khamzat's explosive punches and kicks. Usman might be able to wobble Chimaev with his deceptive jabs, but the real haymakers are coming from The Wolf, whether it's overhands or knees to the body.
Chimaev vs Usman Betting Pick
I'm taking Khamzat all the way, but it's tough to determine how he might get it done. At -275, Chimaev is perfect for a parlay, although that value makes for a lame SU bet.
If your sportsbook offers a prop for Chimaev to win inside the distance, I'd go with that. If not, take KO/TKO, as it seems too hard to wrangle ol' Marty for a submission.