3 Matchups That Will Determine Super Bowl 58

Football is a game of matchups — DLine vs OLine, coach vs coach, refs vs bad calls.

It's likely Super Bowl 58 will be determined by the outcome of a few of those clashes. Here are the three biggest head-to-head matchups I think will decide the 49ers vs Chiefs Super Bowl:

1. Isiah Pacheco vs 49ers Rushing Defense

We all know how big of a factor Christian McCaffrey is going to be in this game. But, Isiah Pacheco has a chance to steal the spotlight.

So far this postseason, the Chiefs have been calling Pacheco's number often. In a tight contest against the Ravens in the AFC Championship game, Andy Reid gave the ball to his lead rusher 28 times. Given how the Chiefs attack matches up against the San Francisco D, Pacheco will stay a big part of Kansas City's offensive plan on Sunday.

The 49ers' rushing defense ranked 28th in Expected Points Added per play and that's been a real issue for them in the playoffs. David Montgomery ran for nearly 100 yards against San Francisco in the NFC Championship game and they've allowed almost 150 rushing yards per game in the playoffs, so far.

First time in Super Bowl history that two rookies, Isiah Pacheco and Skyy Moore, scored a touchdown! 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/AjAwWuB51u

— Brad Henson Productions (@BradHensonPro) May 15, 2023

Pacheco showed up in a big way in last year's Super Bowl, racking up 76 yards, 5.1 yards per carry, and a crucial touchdown against the Eagles. And that came against a great Philly defensive front and rushing defense while this year's 49ers could prove an even softer matchup for the Chiefs RB.

As I've laid out over on my Super Bowl Anytime Touchdown Picks, I like Pacheco to find the end zone at -140. I'd also lean his player prop yards OVER, which currently sits at OVER/UNDER 66.5 yards.

2. Travis Kelce vs Dre Greenlaw

When the games matter, Travis Kelce shows up. In his last 15 playoff games, the Chiefs tight end has 17 touchdowns and six 100+ receiving yard days. He hasn't been held to under 70 receiving yards in any of his last 10 postseason contests.

The 49ers aren't going to be able to shut him down, but maybe they can slow him down — especially near the end zone. The 49ers defense has been elite at stopping opposing tight ends from scoring lately, holding the position to just three touchdowns on the season. In two playoff games, San Francisco's defense held tight ends Sam LaPorta (Lions) and Luke Musgrave (Packers) off the scoresheet, too.

While covering Kelce is going to be a group effort, the primary matchup will fall on 49ers linebacker Dre Greenlaw. According to PFF grades, Greenlaw grades out as a slightly above average overall linebacker (69.3), but in coverage he shines. Greenlaw earns one of the best coverage grades in the league for his position (78.3). That could be a problem for Mr. Kelce.

"Greenlaw is a dog."

Kelce is excited to match up against the 49ers' defense 👀 pic.twitter.com/gxW5cEmadJ

— 49ers on NBCS (@NBCS49ers) February 7, 2024

When the Chiefs and Niners matched up in Super Bowl 54, Greenlaw held Kelce to just 43 receiving yards (though he did find the end zone). The Chiefs still managed to win that game back in 2020 without a massive day from Kelce. But if Greenlaw wins the matchup this year, things could end differently.

3. Kyle Shanahan vs Crunch Time

Kyle Shanahan has already shaken some of the bad narratives that hang over him as a coach, successfully leading comebacks in both of this year's San Francisco playoff wins.

Now, Super Bowl 58 gives Shanahan an opportunity to change another tale: his struggles to close out big games. According to CBS, Shanahan has been the play-caller for "three of the six largest blown fourth-quarter leads in the playoffs since 2016," including the obvious 28-3 Super Bowl LI loss against the Patriots. Shanahan's teams have a 70% win rate in the playoffs when leading by 10 or more points in the 4th quarter. The rest of the NFL, since 2016, has a 95% win rate in those situations. Obviously there's player execution that comes into those losses, but that's gotta fall on the coach at some point, too.

So far this season, though, we've seen Shanahan's 49ers close out games pretty strong, scoring consistently across all four quarters:

49ers Scoring By Quarter (League Rank)

But, we all know things change in the big game. If the 49ers enter the final few minutes of this game with a lead, Shanahan is going to have to steer the ship to victory and defy this narrative against him.