With our outright wagers placed, we now turn our attention to the prop market for our expert selections for the 2022 Genesis Invitational. It is always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines for your 2022 Genesis Invitational prop bets as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.
Last week at the WM Phoenix Open, we entered Sunday with three players in the chasing pack. Keith Mitchell, Talor Gooch and Max Homa all had fantastic weeks but were unable to convert enough birdie opportunities when all was said and done. Luckily, Patton Kizzire cashed a nice top-20 wager for us at +850, making our time in the Arizona desert a moderate success. We will continue to look for value in this market for our Genesis Invitational prop bets as it has time and time again been fruitful for us.
To no surprise, world No. 1 Jon Rahm is heavily favored to finish inside the top 20 this week at [ol-sportsbook-bp:48:Bovada:26:Bodog], listed at -350. Our odds calculator gives the Spaniard a 77.78 percent chance to once again find the top 20 on the leaderboard. Considering Rahm’s four consecutive top-20s on the PGA Tour and three consecutive top-20s at the Genesis Invitational, it appears to be a reasonably safe wager. But needing to lay $350 to profit $100, we will instead search further down the Genesis Invitational betting board in search of some perceived value.
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2022 Genesis Invitational: What To Look For
The PGA Tour has seen recent first-time winners with Luke List at the Farmers Insurance Open, Tom Hoge at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and now Scottie Scheffler at the WM Phoenix Open. With Will Zalatoris being the likeliest of candidates to continue this movement on the PGA Tour, his results not only at Riviera but also at Augusta National may bode well for the reigning PGA Tour Rookie of the Year.
Finishing as the runner-up to Hideki Matsuyama this past spring, Zalatoris narrowly missed out on donning the green jacket. With past success at Augusta National and a tie for 15th in the 2021 Genesis Invitational, thanks to his career-best putting week, the world No. 29 could be in line for his first career victory on the PGA Tour.
As discussed in our outright selections, Masters champions Adam Scott, Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson all hold victories at both courses. We will begin with Johnson, the world No. 6 who has been unable to find the winner’s circle in more than a year.
Dismissing Johnson’s defense effort in last year’s Masters, the American has finished no worse than in a tie for 16th in either event since 2015. He arrives this year having played sparingly in 2022, only teeing it up twice thus far.
Johnson looked fantastic from tee to green at Torrey Pines en route to a T-25 result. With more of the same at the Saudi International, the defending champion finished in a tie for eighth and should have a terrific opportunity to win in the United States for the first time since his Masters victory.
Bubba Watson is the clear headliner when it comes to the correlation between Augusta National and Riviera. A two-time Masters champion and a three-time Genesis Invitational victor, this is one of the weeks in which Watson thrives.
The Floridian is finding his stride at the perfect time, coming off a runner-up at the Saudi International and a tie for 14th at the WM Phoenix Open. Watson led last week’s field in SG: Approach and if he is able to connect on enough of his birdie opportunities, he will threaten for his fourth Genesis Invitational title.
Finally, the Australian Scott made his 2022 U.S. debut last week at the WM Phoenix Open and secured a top-40 finish, following up results of T-10 and T-9 in the desert of the Middle East. A winner here in 2020, Scott ranked first in greens in regulation, third in SG: Tee-to-Green and eighth in driving distance for the week, a performance he is capable of repeating.
2022 Genesis Invitational Prop Bets & Best Bets
Taylor Pendrith +500 To Finish Inside The Top 20
He gained entry into the Genesis Invitational due to some early-week withdrawals, but by all accounts, the Canadian is a huge fan of Riviera. Making his tournament debut, the long-hitting rookie should have the perfect statistical profile for this week’s test, possibly taking a page out of the playbook of Bubba Watson.
Pendrith made his first four cuts of his rookie campaign and nearly became the first rookie to win this season, ultimately finishing in a tie for fifth at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. He struggled in his first two starts of 2022 but rebounded during the California swing.
Finishing tied for 16th at the Farmers Insurance Open and tied for 49th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Pendrith looked fantastic from tee to green. For a putter of his caliber, this is a welcomed sight as the iron play was the area of the game to carry him in his last two starts. He posted +1.21 SG: Approach per round at Torrey Pines and +0.30 SG: Approach per round at Pebble Beach and if he is able to replicate those performances, he should be able to make his way inside the top 20 of the Genesis Invitational leaderboard.
Scott Stallings +700 To Finish Inside The Top 20
A top-20 wager on Stallings, a player who has been missing cuts with some regularity, is banking on his upside shining through. Despite missing out on weekend play five times already in the 2021-22 season, the 36-year-old has also contended at a relatively high clip for a player of his caliber.
After finishing in a tie for sixth at the Fortinet Championship and tied for fifth at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, he has been sluggish out of the 2022 gates, but the signs of a contention run are certainly present.
He was one place outside the top 20 in a tie for 21st last week at the WM Phoenix Open. Finishing the week with +0.46 SG: Approach, +0.06 SG: Around-the-Green and +1.66 SG: Putting per round, he got tripped up with a few wayward drives.
As discussed, there are no water hazards at Riviera and the rough off the fairways are some of the least penal players will face all year. With a T-4 finish in 2018 on his Genesis Invitational resume, Stallings makes for one of our favorite prop bets in Los Angeles.
C.T. Pan +1000 To Finish Inside The Top 20
We looked in his direction at the beginning of the 2021-22 season at the Sanderson Farms Championship, where he finished in a tie for 11th. Since then, he has been mildly disappointing, with no finishes better than T-45 to his credit, but this could be a week where we see C.T. Pan make a surprise appearance on the leaderboard.
With similarities to Augusta National and Quail Hollow, I cannot help but look at Kasumigaseki Country Club, the host of the 2020 Olympic Games. Pan, the eventual bronze medalist, tends to play these bigger ballparks better than pundits give him credit for.
While the margin for error is far less than for a typical bomber of the golf ball, the Washington product has proven himself time and time again. Pan finished in a tie for 20th in last year’s Genesis Invitational and there is enough upside and value in this number to take a shot on him repeating this performance.
Kramer Hickok +1100 To Finish Inside The Top 20
Hickok has been public about his love for Riviera as it was the site of the national championship victory for the University of Texas golf team. Although he was not rostered for the eventual championship match, Hickok was an integral part of the squad and arrives this year flying a bit under the radar.
After he finished solo fourth at the HPE Houston Open and tied for 20th in the Sony Open, some may consider waiting until the Florida swing to look in Hickok’s direction. The bumpy poa annua could pose issues for the Texan as it did last year in his T-64 finish.
However, the way he has been striking the golf ball off the tee has stood out to me, posting positive strokes-gained figures in four straight starts, primarily due to accuracy. This should set him up to attack some of the more accessible pin locations. With his iron play looking sharp in his first two starts in 2022, I am willing to chance it will return this week after being sloppy in Phoenix.
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