We’ve reached the NFL’s opening kickoff and bettors have limited time left to get their funds ready to invest in some season-long bets.
Here at Odds Shark, we have you covered as we’ve studied the numbers and come up with the best bet for each team in the NFL.
Without further ado, here are the guys’ best bets for every NFL team this season.
All odds courtesy of BetOnline Sportsbook
AFC East Best Bets
New England Patriots - UNDER 9.5 Wins (+105)
The New England Patriots finished the 2020 NFL season with a 7-9 record. Although many players opted to sit out due to COVID-19, this team is still in my opinion the third-best squad in the division.
Looking ahead, the Patriots are tied for 11th in the NFL in regard to strength of schedule. They play two games against tough division opponents in the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. They also have games against the Bucs, Chargers, Browns, Titans, Colts and Saints. New England is a solid team with great coaching, but there are too many questions surrounding the offense for me to give this team 10-plus wins. Mac Jones looked good in the preseason, but he is still a rookie QB and it was, well, the preseason. I think that this team likely wins eight or nine games this season so give me that UNDER.
Buffalo Bills - OVER 11 Wins (-155)
The Buffalo Bills had a phenomenal 2020 season, making it to their first AFC championship game since their last Super Bowl appearance in 1993. The Bills have a lot to prove this season, as 2020 MVP candidate Josh Allen looks to continue to dominate.
The Bills offense is very difficult to stop as Allen has evolved into one of the best QBs in the NFL, and WR Stefon Diggs has evolved into one of the best receivers. The Bills defense, however, wasn’t great last season. They had a difficult time getting to the QB, which is why they added pass rushers in the first two rounds of this year’s draft.
The Bills won 13 games last season. With an extra game this year, and a strength of schedule in the bottom half of the league, they should have no difficulty surpassing 11 wins. At -155, the value isn’t necessarily there, but it’s highly unlikely that this team doesn’t get 11-plus wins if they stay healthy.
New York Jets - UNDER 6 wins (-130)
The Jets improved this offseason, but are they four-plus wins better than they were last season? I don’t think so. The Jets are easily the fourth-best team in this division, and while there are some high expectations surrounding their first selection in the draft, Zach Wilson, there will be some growing pains for a rebuilding Jets team.
The Jets definitely got better from a year ago, but going from a two-win season to six-plus wins is difficult to imagine. The Jets were near the bottom in almost every statistical category on both offense and defense, and they have a young offense that we do not really know what to expect from. Take the UNDER 6 at -130!
Miami Dolphins - Tua Tagovailoa OVER 3900.5 Passing Yards (-130)
The Miami Dolphins are looking to build off a 2020 NFL season in which they exceeded the expectations of most. One player who did not exceed the expectations of most was first-round draft selection Tua Tagovailoa.
Though Tua led the Dolphins to a 6-3 record as a starting QB, he only averaged 181.4 yards per game. I think that number is going to get significantly better this season. Tua has already shown flashes of improvement in the preseason, and I expect that to carry over to the regular season.
It is already evident that the Dolphins are going to let his arm loose this year. With better offensive weapons and an expanded playbook, he should surpass this number with ease. It would not surprise me at all if he eclipses 4,000 yards.
AFC North Best Bets
Pittsburgh Steelers - To Finish 3rd in AFC North (+115)
The Steelers are the third-best team in this division. The Browns are continuing to improve and look like they can contend for a Super Bowl, and much of the same can be said for the Ravens.
The Steelers are going to have a difficult time with these two teams in particular because their offensive line struggled mightily last season. The Browns and Ravens possess defensive lines that are going to give this line tons of problems. The Steelers defense is one of the best in football, but is it going to be enough to surpass the Ravens and Browns? Probably not.
The only shot the Steelers have at finishing ahead of these teams is if their defense is absolutely dominant, and their offensive line and Big Ben improve significantly from last season. With two clear-cut favorites in this division, getting the Steelers to finish third in this division at plus odds is a great bet!
Cleveland Browns - Nick Chubb OVER 1350.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Browns have likely the best offensive line in all of football. The line includes Joel Bitonio, J.C. Tretter, Wyatt Teller and veteran Jack Conklin, who are all near the top of the rankings at their positions. This is going to help an already explosive run game.
Looking at last year’s rushing numbers, the Browns finished third in rushing yards, fourth in rushing attempts and fifth in rushing yards average … and the offensive line got even better. Although Kareem Hunt will get his fair share of touches, Nick Chubb had over 1,000 yards in only 12 games last season. He was on pace for 1,422 yards! With an extra game this year, I like Chubb’s chances of going OVER 1,350 yards.
Baltimore Ravens - To win AFC North (+140)
The Baltimore Ravens have one of the more well-rounded rosters in all of football. They have a decent offensive line led by LT Ronnie Staley. They have a former MVP QB in Lamar Jackson, and they acquired some weapons to add to an already dangerous offense.
Led by Jackson, the 2019 NFL MVP, the sky is the limit for the Ravens. According to the 2021 AFC North Division odds, the Ravens appear to be neck and neck with the Browns for the division. In my opinion, the Ravens are being completely overlooked. Finishing second in the NFL in point differential last season, they are absolutely a Super Bowl contender. I think Lamar and this offense have a lot to prove this season, and that defense is easily a top-10 unit in the league.
Looking at their strength of schedules, the Ravens appear to have a significantly easier schedule than the Browns as well. Give me the Ravens to win the division at +140.
Cincinnati Bengals - Tyler Boyd OVER 850.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
This number seems extremely low for a very underrated WR who has eclipsed 1,000 yards multiple times in his career. Boyd played in 15 games last season (starting only eight) and he recorded 841 receiving yards without Joe Burrow for much of it.
With Burrow healthy and an extra game on the schedule, this is a no-brainer for me. Although this offensive line is nothing to write home about, the Bengals have a solid array of weapons on offense. That will open up the field for the speedster Boyd. If he can stay healthy throughout the season, no matter who his QB is, he should be able to surpass this total.
AFC South Best Bets
Houston Texans - UNDER 4 Wins (-135)
The Houston Texans are probably the worst team in football. They do not really have any obvious strengths, particularly without the presence of Pro Bowl QB Deshaun Watson.
They have arguably one of the worst offenses, defenses and coaching in the NFL. There is not much to say about this team besides dumpster fire. I don’t really see how the Texans can win four games with this roster. They may be able to sneak out a win against the Jets or the Jaguars, but that is about it. I believe this bet should hit with ease. Give me UNDER 4!
Tennessee Titans - To Win 10-14 Games (-105)
The Titans acquired All-Pro WR Julio Jones this offseason and this offense is looking like an absolute powerhouse. They now have Jones on the opposite side of another top receiver in A.J. Brown.
The Titans also have the rushing champion in Derrick Henry and a highly underrated QB in Ryan Tannehill. Although this defense may struggle at times, if the offense can control the clock in games, they will be tough to beat. It doesn’t hurt that they have four divisional games against two of the worst teams in the NFL in Jacksonville and Houston. At almost EVEN odds, I love the chances that the Titans get 10-plus wins.
Indianapolis Colts - To Finish 2nd in AFC South (+150)
The Colts are a solid team all around. They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, led by superstar Quenton Nelson, who is dealing with an injury to start the year. One thing I think is going to hurt the team a little is the lack of WR star power and depth.
T.Y. Hilton and Michael Pittman are going to be the top WRs, which probably doesn’t scare too many people. Also, there are lots of questions surrounding newly acquired QB Carson Wentz. Wentz was injured in the preseason and hasn’t been all that good since his MVP-type year in 2017. With regard to the rest of the division, the Texans and Jags have no business coming close to the Colts or the Titans. I give the Titans the edge over the Colts due to the lack of questions I have surrounding the Indianapolis roster.
Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence to win Rookie of the Year (+400)
Trevor Lawrence had a couple of underwhelming performances in the preseason, but this guy is way too talented to be performing at that level.
Lawrence finally showed what he is capable of in the last preseason game, completing 11 of his 12 passes and throwing for 139 yards and two TDs. The first overall selection in this year’s draft is going to play a significant amount this year, which will give him all of the opportunities to take home this award. I expect a great rookie year from Trevor Lawrence, and fully expect him to come home with the hardware.
AFC West Best Bets
Kansas City Chiefs - To Win AFC Championship (+260)
There are so many enticing prop bets for the Kansas City Chiefs. The defending AFC champions got significantly better in an area that represented their biggest flaw last season, and that is the offensive line.
The Chiefs drafted one of the highly touted centers in the draft in Creed Humphrey, and acquired a Pro Bowl LT in Orlando Brown Jr. Not to mention, they have the best QB in all of football in Patrick Mahomes, the best TE in all of football in Travis Kelce, and one of the best WRs in football in Tyreek Hill. This team is full of talent and has a lot to prove after its Super Bowl loss. I don’t think there is any team in the AFC that can beat the Chiefs. The more impressive they are this season, the lower these odds are going to go. Get them now at this price!
Denver Broncos - Jerry Jeudy OVER 925.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Before even looking at this number, I knew it was going to be fairly low for him. Jeudy had a pretty good year last year but wasn’t spectacular. He had a ton of drops that hurt his yardage total, but starting 14 of 16 games, he finished with 856 receiving yards.
I think Jeudy is set to break out in a big way. He has two starting QBs that I expect to play at a much higher level than they did last season. Another reason why I like this bet is that WR Courtland Sutton is back from injury and should generate a lot of attention from defenses. If Jeudy can limit his drops, there is no doubt he can exceed 1,000 yards receiving this year.
Las Vegas Raiders - UNDER 975.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
This one may come as a surprise to some because Josh Jacobs has surpassed 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons. However, I do not see it happening in Year 3.
The Raiders offensive line got undoubtedly worse this offseason, losing Trent Brown, Rodney Hudson and Gabe Jackson. Jacobs is a solid RB, but he dropped off a little from Year 1 to Year 2. He averaged almost a full yard less per attempt, which led to fewer yards per game. This offensive line is going to make it difficult for him to get any breathing room in the rushing game, which is why I expect him to digress even more this year.
Los Angeles Chargers - Keenan Allen OVER 1075.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
The Chargers enter the 2021 season with high expectations after closing out the 2020 season strong and with incredibly strong play from rookie of the year Justin Herbert.
One player who is not discussed nearly enough is Keenan Allen. Allen consistently puts up great numbers and I expect much of the same this year. The Chargers have an improved offensive line, adding first-round pick Rashawn Slater and arguably the best center in football in Corey Linsley.
This will give Herbert more time to throw and should open up the field even more for Allen. He played in 14 games last season, catching for 992 yards (on pace for 1,134 yards). The previous three seasons, he surpassed 1,100 yards with ease. With an additional game on the schedule, there is no doubt Allen can top 1,100 yards this year. I love this bet at this number!
NFC East Best Bets
Dallas Cowboys - To Finish 2nd in NFC East (+170)
The Cowboys have a ton of weapons on offense, so this team should not have difficulty scoring. However, on the other side of the ball, this team is going to struggle.
They have a good linebacker group with Leighton Vander Esch, Micah Parsons and Jaylon Smith, but besides that group, this defense is really weak. They have one of the worst interior defensive lines and one of the worst secondaries in football. This is going to be very problematic for them, especially against good teams. The team that will likely be competing for the division with them is Washington. I think these two teams end up with similar records but I give Washington the slight edge.
Philadelphia Eagles - UNDER 6.5 Wins (+105)
It comes as a major surprise to me that we are getting plus odds for this bet. The Eagles are likely going to be the worst team in this division.
They have a fairly good offensive line, but they don’t have a great arsenal of weapons on offense. On top of that, they have a young starting QB in Jalen Hurts who I am still a little skeptical about. I think Hurts is a good leader, but it is hard to say whether he can be a franchise quarterback. On the defensive side of the ball, there is no real strength to the team besides the interior line.
They have a weak linebacking corps and a mediocre secondary. I think this team is going to struggle mightily this season and I believe they will win four or five games.
New York Giants - Daniel Jones UNDER 3750.5 Passing Yards (-115)
I think it is going to be difficult for QB Daniel Jones to stay healthy this season due to an awful offensive line. Through two seasons, Danny Dimes has been unable to play a full year. In 14 games last season, he did not even eclipse the 3,000-yard mark.
Although the Giants added a very good WR in Kenny Golladay, it is still difficult to imagine Jones playing that well with this offensive line. He is going to be under pressure a lot, which will make it hard for him to exceed this total. Hopefully, he can stay healthy, which may bring him close to this number. But even if he does, there is a good chance this stays UNDER.
Washington Football Team - To Win NFC East (+160)
This is a good Washington team! I think this defense has the potential to be a top-five unit this year and the offense could be pretty good with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm.
Washington has a whole bunch of players who can change the game on defense, including standout edge rusher Chase Young. On offense, Washington added Fitzpatrick, an upgrade from what they had before, and further weapons in Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown. I think the value for them to defend their division title is great at +160!
NFC North Best Bets
Minnesota Vikings - Dalvin Cook - Most Rushing TDs (+700)
Minnesota’s offensive line is nothing special, but Dalvin Cook continues to put up unbelievable numbers and I expect the same this year.
The Vikings still finished the 2020 season fifth in rushing yards, eighth in rushing attempts and fourth in average rushing yards. Cook finished second in rushing TDs to rushing champ Derrick Henry. The reason I like this bet is Cook only played 14 games last year.
The guy is an absolute machine when it comes to scoring TDs and if he can remain healthy, I think he will get it done. Expect this number to go down quickly as the 26-year-old should come flying out the gates.
Green Bay Packers - Davante Adams OVER 11 Receiving TDs (-130)
Davante Adams put on an absolute clinic in the 2020 NFL season. He caught 115 passes on 149 targets (77.2%) with 1,374 yards and 18 TDs. The 28-year-old continues to get better and better every season and is pretty much unguardable. Teams knew that the ball would be going to him and still couldn’t stop him.
If you want to take a little bit more of a risk, I suggest taking Davante to lead the league in receiving TDs at +750. But if you want a safe bet, I would recommend taking this OVER at -130. Davante played 14 games last season, accounting for 18 TD receptions. With an extra game this season, and a Packers team that has a lot to prove, this number seems incredibly low.
Adams has proven to be unstoppable in the red zone, and Aaron Rodgers targets him all the time in that area. Expect Adams to get around 15 TDs this year and surpass this number fairly easily.
Detroit Lions - UNDER 4.5 Wins (+110)
This offseason, the Lions traded away longtime starting QB Matthew Stafford, obtaining replacement Jared Goff as part of the deal. Goff is certainly a downgrade, and it looks like this Lions team is in full rebuild mode.
They have been loading up on draft picks and have let go of some veterans like Danny Shelton and Desmond Trufant. But looking at this roster as it currently stands, it is rough. The receiving corps could be one of the worst in the NFL and Goff has been inconsistent in recent years. On the defensive side, you could argue that this is the worst unit in football.
On top of that, the Lions play vs the 49ers, at the Packers, vs the Ravens, at the Bears and at the Vikings in their first five weeks. To be completely honest, I could easily see them going 0-5 out of the gate. I expect the Lions to win three or four games this year, so hammer this number while you can at plus odds.
Chicago Bears - To Finish Third in the NFC North (+130)
The Bears are likely going to struggle on offense this year. They have a particularly weak offensive line and a QB in Andy Dalton who will probably be one of the worst starting QBs to start the season.
I think two spots are pretty much locked up in the division – the Packers are the clear-cut favorites to win and the Lions are the clear-cut favorites to finish last. That leaves the Vikings and Bears competing for second, and I think the Vikings have the clear edge, looking like a team that will likely win nine or 10 games, while the Bears are still in a rebuilding phase and will probably win six or seven games. Getting plus odds on a bet like this feels too good to be true.
NFC South Best Bets
New Orleans Saints - Alvin Kamara OVER 74.5 Receptions (-115)
This offseason the Saints lost future Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees. That’s going to be a big loss because he is a great leader and was a great QB, though he wasn’t all that impressive last season. Jameis Winston has looked good in the preseason, and I expect him to have a solid year, which bodes well for Kamara.
Kamara has been in the NFL for four seasons now and has never started more than 13 games. In those four seasons, he has surpassed 80 receptions in each of them. With an extra game this season and an offense that will run through him, I expect him to surpass this number yet again. Kamara is a matchup nightmare for defenses and with an offensive line as solid as the Saints’ unit, Winston should have time to find his star RB all year.
Atlanta Falcons - Calvin Ridley – Most Receiving Yards (+900)
Calvin Ridley has taken the league by storm since joining the league in 2018. With the departure of Julio Jones this offseason, he is the clear No. 1 receiver for this Atlanta Falcons team, a spot he got familiar with last season.
Ridley had a breakout 2020 season, catching 90 passes for 1,374 yards and nine TDs. In my opinion, all signs point to another massive year. The Falcons are going to be throwing a ton. They have a weak defense, so I expect them to be involved in some high-scoring affairs. This bodes well for Ridley as the No. 1 receiver on the team. This is one of my favorite bets of the bunch because it is a juicy play at +900 ($100 to win $900) but I believe that this very well could happen.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Leonard Fournette - UNDER 649.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are absolutely loaded on offense. They have weapons at WR and TE and have the greatest QB of all-time leading the offense. Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones will be competing for most of the carries and to start the season, the edge likely goes to Jones.
I absolutely love this bet because Fournette didn’t even sniff this number last year and I expect things to be similar this year. Playoff Lenny only rushed for 367 yards in 13 games last season, which translates to only 28.2 rushing yards per game. Jones averaged 69.9 yards per game last year.
Lenny will get his touches, but a considerable number of them will be in the passing game. For a backup running back who will come into many games for receiving purposes, 650-plus rushing yards is a large number. Even with the extra game, Fournette should fall well short of this number.
Carolina Panthers - UNDER 7.5 Wins (-105)
Despite having the most dynamic running back in the NFL in Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers are likely looking at a disappointing season. They made a big splash this offseason in acquiring Sam Darnold and Robby Anderson, which should lead to improvements. However, besides the RB position, there is nothing great about this Carolina offense. The same could be said for the other side of the ball.
The Panthers struggled to win close games last season. With an inexperienced coach and a QB who has not won many games, I expect the same to occur this year. The Panthers have a bad offensive line and Darnold struggles under pressure.
On the defensive side of the ball, they have made some improvements, including adding CB Jaycee Horn in the first round of the draft. But it feels like this is a roster that has a lot of good players, but not a lot of great ones. Overall, this team is likely going to be the third or fourth-best team in the division. I see the Panthers winning six or seven games and falling short of that 7.5 mark.
NFC West Best Bets
San Francisco 49ers - To Win NFC West (+175)
Heading into the 2021 NFL season, I am very high on this 49ers team. They are just a very solid team all around, with no obvious spots.
They are incredibly well-coached, and they have very good players all over the field. On the offensive side of the ball, they can compete with anyone because they have a good offensive line and solid weapons. For the 49ers offense to take that next step, WRs Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are going to need to have great years, and Jimmy Garoppolo needs to get back to being a great game manager.
The defense is going to be a problem for opposing teams. The 49ers have put together a defensive line that consists of former first-round pick Javon Kinlaw, Dee Ford, Arik Armstead and Nick Bosa. Not to mention, they have arguably the best LB in all of football in Fred Warner. They will likely be competing with the Rams for the division, but I like the way they match up against LA, and I like these odds. The value is definitely there as well!
Seattle Seahawks - Chris Carson OVER 9 Rush and Rec TDs (-115)
Chris Carson appears set for a big 2021 NFL season. Pete Carroll has made it well known that he plans to incorporate the run game much more this season, which obviously bodes well for the starting RB.
Carson has scored exactly nine TDs in each of the past three seasons but has still not played a full year. Last season, he played only 12 games, rushing for five TDs and scoring four more on receptions.
Carson is the clear No. 1 running back for this Seahawks team and with an improved offensive line and an array of weapons, he should get a ton of opportunities to exceed this number. If he can remain healthy and play a full season for the first time in his career, he should hit double-digits TDs and cash this bet!
Los Angeles Rams - To Win NFC Championship (+750)
The Rams are most definitely a Super Bowl contender. Adding to an already strong core, the Rams acquired perhaps the most underrated QB in all of football in Matthew Stafford. Yes, I do not have them winning the division, but the Rams are certainly a playoff team and a true contender.
Stafford comes into an offense that is by far the best he has been a part of. They have a formidable receiving corps that includes the likes of Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and DeSean Jackson. But what really makes this team special is on the defensive side of the ball.
The Rams have one of the best defenses in all of football, led by DE Aaron Donald and CB Jalen Ramsey, arguably the best at their positions in the NFL. This roster is extremely talented, and with a lot to prove this season, I like the value you are getting at +750 to make this year’s Super Bowl.
Arizona Cardinals - Kyler Murray OVER 7.5 Rushing TDs (-115)
From Year 1 to Year 2, Kyler Murray made massive improvements. He improved in almost every offensive category, especially in the run game. Murray has a knack for finding holes and getting to the end zone.
I don’t really understand why this number is this low. Murray is coming off a season in which he rushed for 11 TDs. On top of that, their starting RB is likely going to be Chase Edmonds, who didn’t exactly fill up the end zone last season. Murray is always a threat to run and the Cardinals were very good at catching the opposing team’s defense off guard and allowing Kyler to do his thing. I expect him to get a similar number of TDs on the ground this year and exceed this total fairly easily.
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