We’ve reached the NFL’s Sportsbook kickoff and bettors have limited time left to get their funds ready to invest in some season-long bets.
Here at Odds Shark, we have you covered as we’ve studied the numbers and come up with the best bet for each team in the NFL.
Without further ado, here are my best bets for every NFL team this season.
Also make sure to check out our Super Bowl odds, NFL MVP odds, NFL Week 1 odds and NFL prop bets pages to get ready for the season.
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AFC East Best Bets
New England Patriots - UNDER 8.5 Wins (EVEN)
It’s looking more and more like the Pats are in for a reckoning at some point soon. Bad drafting and losing a couple of the best players in NFL history off their roster has left the team without a lot of promise for the future, unless you think Mac Jones is the savior. I don’t, so I’m fading the Pats this year.
Find this prop at Sportsbook.
Buffalo Bills - Josh Allen MVP (+500)
Right before the season starts, there is still plenty of value on NFL MVP odds. Allen is going to be a favorite in MVP odds all season, and +500 is still great odds for him.
This prop is available at Sportsbook.
Sportsbook
New York Jets - Breece Hall UNDER 800 Rushing Yards (-115)
Jets head coach Robert Saleh described running back Michael Carter as the “heartbeat” of the team’s offense just days before the season started, and all indications are that Carter is the unquestioned starter in the Jets backfield.
Hall is a far better athlete and more talented runner than Carter, but opportunity is king in the NFL and it’s not clear what kind of opportunity Hall will have early in the year. We’ll take the UNDER on this lofty number.
Find this prop at Sportsbook.
Miami Dolphins - Mike Gesicki UNDER 600.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Dolphins and new head coach Mike McDaniel don’t appear to have found a great role for move tight end Mike Gesicki. A poor blocker, Gesicki seems to be on the outs in Miami with a coaching staff that didn’t draft him. Take the UNDER on all things Gesicki this season.
This prop is available at Sportsbook.
Sportsbook
AFC North Best Bets
Pittsburgh Steelers - Diontae Johnson UNDER 84.5 Receptions (-115)
We’re fading Diontae Johnson this season. It’s not because of his talent, it’s because of where he plays. The Steelers would probably prefer to run the ball more than they throw it, and when they do throw it, there are a ton of guys to pass it to. Johnson’s numbers are bound to come down now that Ben Roethlisberger isn’t around to lock on to him 10 times a game.
Find this prop at Sportsbook.
Cleveland Browns - Nick Chubb UNDER 1200.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Chubb might be the best pure runner in the NFL. But with injuries so prevalent in today’s league, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him miss a few games (as he did last year) and not hit this total. Chubb has hit 1,200-plus in two of four years in the league and he barely did it last year. This prop is over at Sportsbook.
Baltimore Ravens - To Win AFC North (+140)
The Baltimore Ravens have one of the more well-rounded rosters in all of football. They have a decent offensive line led by LT Ronnie Staley. They have a former MVP QB in Lamar Jackson, and they acquired some weapons to add to an already dangerous offense.
Led by Jackson, the 2019 NFL MVP, the sky is the limit for the Ravens. According to the 2022 AFC North Division odds, the Ravens are the favorite to win the division, but we’re still getting them at plus money.
Cincinnati Bengals - Tyler Boyd UNDER 750.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Boyd is a good player, but the Bengals have shown they want to run the ball a lot despite their great weapons. And with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the team, along with Hayden Hurst and Joe Mixon, I’m not sure this offense can have a third receiver go over 750 yards. This bet is available at Sportsbook.
AFC South Best Bets
Houston Texans - OVER 4.5 Wins (-130)
The Houston Texans are underrated this season. They have a solid offensive line, added a bunch of new talent in the draft and QB Davis Mills was quietly the best rookie QB in the league last year other than Mac Jones.
The arrow is pointing up for this team, and their weak division should help them net at least five wins. They are a good bet in NFL win totals.
Tennessee Titans - Derrick Henry UNDER 1400.5 Rushing Yards (-150)
This line implies that Henry will stay healthy for most, if not all of the 2022 NFL season. It’s not that I don’t think he will or that I think he’s injury-prone now. But betting the UNDER on these huge numbers is good process given how often injuries occur to RBs.
Find this line at Sportsbook.
Indianapolis Colts - Michael Pittman Jr. OVER 1025 Receiving Yards (-115)
It feels like Pittman is in for a breakout season this year. With the addition of Matt Ryan and not much else to throw to, Pittman should lead the team in receiving by a sizable margin. 1,025 yards isn’t that much for a player of this talent in this situation.
This prop is available at Sportsbook.
Jacksonville Jaguars - Christian Kirk OVER 850.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Like Pittman, Kirk finds himself in an offense as really the only reliable weapon out wide. I think QB Trevor Lawrence takes a big step this season under new coach Doug Pederson, and Kirk will be one of the beneficiaries.
This prop is available at Sportsbook.
AFC West Best Bets
Kansas City Chiefs - JuJu Smith-Schuster OVER 75.5 Receptions (-115)
Patrick Mahomes says it’s going to be a different WR that gets the ball every week, but JuJu’s competition is rookie Skyy Moore and situational deep threats Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. JuJu is easily the best possession receiver on the team and should soak up targets from Mahomes.
This prop is available at Sportsbook.
Denver Broncos - Javonte Williams UNDER 950.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Eat your hearts out, fantasy owners. Despite Javonte being the best running back in his backfield, all signs from beat reports indicate the Broncos will use Melvin Gordon in a committee with the second-year Williams. This is a big number for any RB, let alone one sharing time.
Las Vegas Raiders - Josh Jacobs UNDER 775.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Jacobs isn’t very good. And neither is his offensive line. And the new coaches love to use a committee approach. And they drafted another back pretty high. And the Raiders will have to pass the ball a lot in this pass-happy division. See where I’m going with this?
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Los Angeles Chargers - Austin Ekeler OVER 8.5 Rushing TDs (-115)
Ekeler had 12 rushing TDs last season and should moonwalk into nine this year if he plays most of the season. This offense should be a juggernaut.
NFC East Best Bets
Dallas Cowboys - Dalton Schultz UNDER 72.5 Receptions (-115)
This line is too high. Schultz had a career year last season with an unsustainable catch rate and he didn’t miss a game. Regression could be coming here.
This prop is available at Sportsbook.
Sportsbook
Philadelphia Eagles - A.J. Brown OVER 1025 Receiving Yards (-115)
All reports are that Brown has been dominating Eagles camp. The fact that the Eagles added Brown this season points to them wanting to throw the ball a lot. A big year could be coming up for this beast of a receiver.
New York Giants - Daniel Jones OVER 21.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125)
Are we crazy? Maybe. But this is a make-or-break season for Jones, who has easily the best offensive line and group of weapons around him of his career. Twenty-two TDs should be well within reach if he stays healthy.
Washington Commanders - Terry McLaurin OVER 1000.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Whatever you think about Carson Wentz, he’s easily the best QB McLaurin has ever had. If healthy, 1,000 yards is his floor.
NFC North Best Bets
Minnesota Vikings - Finishing 2nd In The NFC North (+140)
It’s pretty clear the Vikings should be the second-best team in the NFC North this season. And while I like the Lions more than most, I don’t see them as being better than Minny, and barring an Aaron Rodgers injury, I don’t think the Packers lose the division. Plus money here is good value at Sportsbook.
Green Bay Packers - Aaron Jones UNDER 1300 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
Aaron Jones has only topped 1,300 yards twice in five seasons in the NFL, and though Davante Adams is now gone, there are a lot more outs for us to hit the UNDER on this prop than the OVER, which would likely require Jones staying healthy almost all season and AJ Dillon not taking over a bigger role.
Sportsbook
Detroit Lions - T.J. Hockenson UNDER 700.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Hockenson has only eclipsed 700 receiving yards once in three seasons and he did it by 23 yards. Now, he has the most target competition of his career by a mile. Hitting 701 yards feels like an 80th percentile outcome for Hockenson.
Bet this UNDER at Sportsbook.
Chicago Bears - UNDER 6.5 Wins (-190)
This one is too easy. The line isn’t the best value, but there’s no way this roster gets the Bears to 7-10. I would be shocked. Find this line and lines for every other team on our NFL win totals page.
NFC South Best Bets
New Orleans Saints - Michael Thomas UNDER 825.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The guy has barely played over the last two seasons and now has maybe the best target competition of his career without Drew Brees at QB or Sean Payton at head coach. Full fade.
Sportsbook
Atlanta Falcons - Cordarrelle Patterson UNDER 950.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
I like Patterson this season, but this number is pretty high for a guy who has only hit more than 600 all-purpose yards once in nine seasons. Again, there are a lot more reasons why he won’t hit this number than there are that he will. He would need to essentially repeat last season on a worse team with a worse QB with more competition.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Mike Evans UNDER 74.5 Receptions (-125)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are absolutely loaded on offense. And with maybe the most target competition of his career, it seems pretty likely that Evans goes UNDER this number. He has had 74 receptions or less in six of eight seasons.
This prop is available at Sportsbook.
Sportsbook
Carolina Panthers - D.J. Moore OVER 5.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-105)
I talked about why I love D.J. Moore this season here in our best player props receivers article. This is a very talented player who is due for some positive regression in this area. He also now has the best QB of his career throwing him the ball.
NFC West Best Bets
San Francisco 49ers - Deebo Samuel UNDERs
Take your pick. Whether it’s UNDER his 1250.5 total rushing + receiving yards, UNDER his 950.5 receiving yards or UNDER 70.5 receptions, there’s no player in the league due for a bigger regression than Deebo.
He scored TDs at an alarming rate last season and had a massive outlier season in terms of efficiency. He’s also getting a QB change to a guy they might not let throw very much. These props are over at Sportsbook.
Sportsbook
Seattle Seahawks - UNDER 5.5 Wins (-110)
I’m not sure if you could set the line too low for me here. Whether it’s the massive QB downgrade or archaic offensive approach, take your pick why the Seahawks will be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season.
Los Angeles Rams - UNDER 10.5 Wins (-110)
Super Bowl hangover incoming? The Rams have a very tough schedule and reports about Matthew Stafford having an elbow issue are a bit worrying. Check this line out on our NFL win totals page.
Arizona Cardinals - James Conner UNDER 825.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
I fear regression is coming for Conner as well this season after he had a career year in 2021. He’s an older player with an extensive injury history. This line feels too high. This prop is available at Sportsbook.
Sportsbook
